Kentucky Derby Horse: Wonder Dean Odds, History, and Predictions

The 152nd Kentucky Derby happens Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs. The Road to the Kentucky Derby points races are over, and the field is taking shape. The Kentucky Derby is more international than ever this year with a trio of horses coming in from overseas – including Wonder Dean, who started his career in Japan but earned points in the Saudi Derby (G3) and UAE Derby (G2) to become the top qualifying point earner on the Europe-Middle East spur of the Derby trail.

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Wonder Dean Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions

Kentucky Derby posts were drawn Saturday, April 25, and morning-line odds were assigned the same day. Wonder Dean drew a perfectly fine middle post, post 10. He is tabbed at 30-1 on the morning line, one of the longer shots in the field. He does have an uphill battle given the record of most UAE Derby winners in the Kentucky Derby, but the presence of Ryusei Sakai – regular rider of Kentucky Derby third-place finisher and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Forever Young – adds interest.

Wonder Dean Horse Trainer and Jockey

Wonder Dean comes from the barn of trainer Daisuke Takayanagi. Takayanagi has had one Kentucky Derby starter before – the much more lightly-raced T O Password earned the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby bid in 2024 and finished fifth – an excellent effort in just his third career race.

Wonder Dean will be ridden by Ryusei Sakai. Sakai also rode in the 2024 Kentucky Derby – but he took the call on Forever Young, the narrow third-place finisher. Sakai is still Forever Young’s regular jockey, and has gained great experience in world-class dirt racing with him.

Wonder Dean Race History

He needed his debut in a 1 ⅛-mile newcomers’ race on the turf last July, but he blossomed when he switched to dirt September 14 for a 1 ⅛-mile maiden special weight at Nakayama Racecourse, which he won by eight lengths in stalk-and-pounce style. He came up just short in his next two races, a pair of 1 ⅛-mile dirt races at Kyoto and Hanshin, missing by half a length each time.

His first overseas attempt came on February 14 in the Saudi Derby; the race was a one-turn mile, his shortest trip yet, and he only mustered fourth behind Al Haram. The stretch out to 1 3/16 miles for the UAE Derby in March was what Wonder Dean needed; he rallied from midfield to overhaul Six Speed, relishing the distance and finishing 2 ½ lengths clear.

Equibase speed figures are unavailable for races outside the United States and Canada.

Wonder Dean Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick

Wonder Dean has shown tactical speed, which gives him options to carve a good trip in the Kentucky Derby. He has thrived as the distances have gotten longer, and should enjoy the extra furlong as well, being by Deep Impact son Dee Majesty out of the Wonder Acute mare Wonder Siang Praw, who won going as long as 1 ⅛ miles. His connections also inspire confidence, as Takayanagi’s only previous Kentucky Derby starter outran his odds and lack of experience, and Sakai almost won in his only other Kentucky Derby ride.

Wonder Dean is still fighting against a lot of historical trends – though the form of overseas horses is starting to get better, Forever Young is still the only horse to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby coming from the UAE Derby, across 21 starters. He deserves to be a long shot given those trend and class questions – but he has appeal for the exotics, at the very least, with his improving form and rock-solid connections.

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