Kentucky Derby Horse: Renegade Odds, History, and Predictions

The 152nd Kentucky Derby is coming up at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May – May 2, 2026. The Kentucky Derby trail has drawn to a close, all the points have been allocated, and the field has been taking shape. And, no horse has had more buzz through the final stages of the Triple Crown prep trail than Renegade, who romped in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 28.

Stay up-to-date on Kentucky Derby odds and contenders, and bet on which horse will win the Kentucky Derby with FanDuel Racing and FanDuel Sportsbook!

Learn more about how to bet the Kentucky Derby online at FanDuel!

Renegade Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions

Post positions and morning-line odds for the Kentucky Derby were released on Saturday, April 25. Renegade is the morning-line favorite at 4-1; he emerged as the likely favorite after winning the Arkansas Derby so impressively. However, he is one of the big losers at the post draw – he drew the rail. The rail is particularly challenging in a field of 20, and he hasn’t had to handle a rail draw since his debut, which came in a much smaller field.

Renegade Horse Trainer and Jockey

Renegade is conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. Pletcher has started 65 horses in the Kentucky Derby, the most of any trainer in history. He has two winners so far: Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017. Six more Todd Pletcher trainees have hit the board, though none since Audible finished third in 2018.

Irad Ortiz, Jr., who has ridden Renegade in his last three starts and four of his five career outings, rides again in the Kentucky Derby. He is one of the best jockeys in the world; he has won the Belmont Stakes twice, and he has finished second twice in the Preakness. But, the Run for the Roses still eludes him: from nine starters, his best finish came in 2019 when he was fourth with Improbable.

Renegade Race History

Though Renegade was beaten 18 lengths in his sprint debut at Saratoga, more distance brought him along. He crossed the wire first in his second start, which came in an October maiden race at Aqueduct, though was disqualified to second behind Paladin after some late bumping. Paladin beat him on the square next out in the Remsen (G2).

But, Renegade has open-length victories in both his sophomore starts. He earned his maiden-breaker in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs by 3 ¾ lengths over a field including The Puma, and then won the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park by four lengths over the consistent Silent Tactic.

Speed ratings are courtesy of Equibase.

Renegade Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick

Renegade will be one of the Kentucky Derby favorites for good reason. He kept good company as a juvenile, holding his own against Paladin, who would likely be the Kentucky Derby favorite had he not been injured in a work. He figured out how to win at age three, romping against fields that included Derby horses like The Puma and Silent Tactic. He is a stretch-running sort, but the pace setups in the Sam F. Davis and the Arkansas Derby weren’t especially fast, and he won anyway. And, Irad Ortiz, Jr. had his choice of horses at the top of the leaderboard – he won 100-point preps with Renegade, Commandment, and Fulleffort – and he chose Renegade. Finally, being by Into Mischief out of Grade 3-winning Curlin mare Spice Is Nice, the pedigree is all there.

The biggest question for Renegade is his connections. Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr. have won many of the biggest races in the world – but their strike rate on Kentucky Derby day doesn’t rise to match the money they continue to take in the race. In a wide-open Kentucky Derby, he is fast and talented, but not so far clear of the other top prospects to make him exciting as the chalk.

New to FanDuel Racing? Place your first bet of $5 on any race at any track & get $25 back in Racing Bonus! Valid in participating states. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Racing Promos.

Looking for more horse racing betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Racing to see all of today’s horse racing odds.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!