Kentucky Derby Horse: Potente Odds, History, and Predictions

The 152nd edition of the Kentucky Derby is coming up at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 2. The prep races are over, the points are all given out, and the field is taking shape. Trainer Bob Baffert has become almost synonymous with the Kentucky Derby in recent years, but after a chaotic road to the Kentucky Derby, he only has one horse in the top 20 as of the end of the preps: Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Potente.

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Potente Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions

The Kentucky Derby was drawn Saturday, April 25, and morning-line odds were assigned the same day. Potente is the shorter-priced of the two horses from the Bob Baffert barn, but he still stands to be a long shot: he is 20-1 on the morning line after finishing a clear second behind So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby. He will break from post 14.

Potente Horse Trainer and Jockey

Potente is trained by Bob Baffert, whose six career Kentucky Derby wins tie him with Ben Jones for the most all-time. Two of those winners, American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018), won the Triple Crown. His most recent winner was Authentic in 2020; Medina Spirit also crossed the wire first in 2021, but was disqualified for a positive test. In addition to his six winners, Baffert has had six more of his 35 starters hit the board, dating back to runner-up Cavonnier in 1996, the first year he ran a horse in the Derby.

Juan Hernandez, who rode Potente to his San Felipe (G2) victory in March and his Santa Anita Derby runner-up finish in April, will ride again in Louisville. Though he has been riding top Baffert horses for several years, including 2024 Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Muth, this will be Hernandez’s first Kentucky Derby mount.

Potente Race History

Potente did not make his debut until January – though Baffert has won the Derby before with a horse unraced as a two-year-old. In that six-furlong debut, Potente battled on the pace and kept on to win by three-quarters of a length, earning a step up to the Derby trail. He won the San Felipe on March 7, stalking the pace and rallying to win by a head over long shot Robusta. The Santa Anita Derby was another protracted duel – he won that battle with Robusta, but lost the war to So Happy by 2 ¾ lengths in the end.

Speed ratings are courtesy of Equibase.

Potente Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick

Potente has a nice pedigree for trying 1 ¼ miles: sire Into Mischief accounts for three winners, and his dam is the Awesome Again mare Sweet Sting, a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf winner Perfect Sting. He is also showing steady progression on multiple speed figure scales, meaning if he takes another step forward, he can be fast enough to be in the mix.

On the other hand, Baffert still needs to prove he can get his Kentucky Derby mojo back. He was banned from the race in 2022, 2023, and 2024 after the Medina Spirit disqualification. Citizen Bull, his only runner in 2025, ran 15th. Potente lacks experience – yes, Baffert has won with inexperienced horses before, but not every horse can do what Justify did. He also needs to prove he can settle – something he did successfully in the San Felipe, but not in his other two races. A forward trip very much could be the winning one, but a 1 ¼-mile speed duel probably isn’t.

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