Kentucky Derby Horse: Danon Bourbon Odds, History, and Predictions

The 152nd edition of the Kentucky Derby is coming up Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs. With all the prep races over, the field is taking final shape. One of the wild cards – and one expected to take some money given recent trends – is Danon Bourbon. Japanese dirt racing has had a rising profile in recent years, especially with superstar Forever Young, and Danon Bourbon is the qualifier from the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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Danon Bourbon Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions

Kentucky Derby post positions were drawn on Saturday, April 25, and morning-line odds were assigned the same day. Danon Bourbon drew a nice middle gate, post 7. He is 20-1 on the morning line, the shortest price of the three overseas shippers. He has a lot to prove from a class perspective, but perhaps because of increased regard for Japanese dirt racing, he has been getting the most early interest of the three horses who have yet to race stateside.

Danon Bourbon Horse Trainer and Jockey

Danon Bourbon is trained by Japan-based Manabu Ikezoe, who will have his first North American starter with Danon Bourbon. He is the son of trainer Kaneo Ikezoe, and worked for both Northern Farm and Aidan O’Brien before striking out on his own. His best horse to date is Dura Erede, who upset the Hopeful (G1) at Nakayama in 2022.

Atsuya Nishimura, who has ridden Danon Bourbon in his last two starts, will ride him in the Kentucky Derby as well. This will be Nishimura’s first North American start.

Danon Bourbon Race History

Danon Bourbon debuted in a newcomers race at Kyoto, a 1 ⅛-mile dirt race open to juvenile first-time starters. He was only the third betting choice at 5-1, but led at every call and won by 10 lengths, relishing the mud. Freshened until mid-February, he returned in a 1 3/16-mile allowance race at Kyoto, scoring by five lengths in stalk-and-pounce fashion on fast dirt. He stepped up to stakes company for his last start, the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse. He stalked and pounced to beat the more experienced Don Erectus by 3 ½ lengths.

Equibase speed figures are unavailable for races outside the United States and Canada.

Danon Bourbon Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick

Danon Bourbon hasn’t lost in three starts, and he has been able to win from both the lead and from a stalking spot. That tactical speed should help him work out a trip, especially since he is probably going to get outjumped – he’s never gone shorter than 1 ⅛ miles, and horses who have gone shorter may be sharper early. Danon Bourbon has also proven he can handle a wet track: two of his three wins have come in the mud, and the Derby comes up wet often enough to make this a good thing to have on a Derby resume.

The big questions, however, are class, and how he ships. Danon Bourbon makes his graded-stakes debut in the Kentucky Derby; though he beat a good one in Don Erectus, that one would have had similar questions had his connections chosen to send him to the Derby. Danon Bourbon has also never raced outside Japan – though bettors might consider Forever Young and the quality of Japanese dirt racing, Forever Young had raced on the world stage before his narrow third in the Run for the Roses, and Danon Bourbon lacks that experience.

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