Kentucky Derby: Best Bets and Picks for Today’s Run for the Roses

Kentucky Derby Day is here: the Run for the Roses happens today, Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs. Barring a last-minute scratch, a full field of 20 of the best three-year-old dirt horses from the United States and abroad will break from the starting gate, including a pair who got in off the also-eligible list. The 1 ¼-mile distance is taxing, but the prizes are great: the lion’s share of a $5 million purse, the iconic blanket of roses, and a place in horse racing history.

Betting the Kentucky Derby is an experience like no other, as well. Because of the large field size and the inherent chaos in a field of 20, the winning horse often pays well, even if he is one of the favorites. The differences in class, speed, how favorable the pace is, and other important factors can be very narrow, especially among the top prospects. But, it’s worth figuring out – because whoever solves the puzzle and finds their horse in the Kentucky Derby winners’ circle will have a day to remember.

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Best Bets and Picks for Today's Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby Pace

There’s an old adage that the pace makes the race, and that’s true whether you’re handicapping a local claiming race on a Tuesday or Churchill Downs’ signature race, the Kentucky Derby.

Before the Road to the Kentucky Derby points system began for the 2013 edition of the race, the pace in the Run for the Roses often got hot. After all, when getting into the field was just based on stakes earnings and not specific races, horses often earned their way in by winning short two-year-old races or even three-year-old sprints, set a rollicking pace through the early stages of the 1 ¼-mile test, and then let the closers through when they tired out.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby system has made this less of a given. After all, none of the points races are any shorter than a mile, and many of the races that virtually guarantee the winner a trip to Churchill Downs are either 1 ⅛ miles or 1 3/16 miles. Thus, the horses who make it from the prep races to the first Saturday in May are ones who can stay … if not always 1 ¼ miles, at least a route distance.

However, the pace can sometimes shape up very fast. In 2022, Summer is Tomorrow set a record opening quarter of 21.78 seconds and a flying half of 45.36 seconds, setting up for long shot Rich Strike to pick up the pieces. In 2025, closers got a good run as well: Citizen Bull and Neoequos dueled through fast early fractions, setting up Sovereignty’s run from near the back of the pack.

In 2026, that has a very good chance of happening again. Litmus Test, drawn near the inside and putting blinkers back on, will likely gun it. Pavlovian and Six Speed, drawn further outside, figure to slam on the gas as well. Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner So Happy can stalk, but he’s very fast early and sometimes gets embroiled in the pace; the same holds for Potente. Intrepido needs to be up there as well, though he may not quite be fast enough to get up with those horses. In short, the pace should be contested, setting up nicely for a midpack or closing horse.

Kentucky Derby Bet-Againsts

Most of the speed horses are unlikely to be near the top of the market. Perhaps Potente and Litmus Test could get a little wagering interest because they are trained by six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, but their record isn’t as strong as many of Baffert’s best, and Baffert’s 2025 Kentucky Derby horse Citizen Bull wasn’t too heavily bet – and burned out on the pace.

One bet-against is a horse who may handle the pace flow well in a vacuum, but has every chance to get a poor trip at a short price: Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Renegade. He tends to come from midpack or even a little further back, and can muster a really strong late rally. But, jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. has never hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, and now he’ll have to deal with all of the chaos of being hemmed inside early in a field of 20.

Another horse worth treating with some skepticism is Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner Further Ado. Yes, he was an 11-length Blue Grass winner … but there seem to be two versions of Further Ado, the one who has shown up at Keeneland and the one who has shown up everywhere else. He needs his Keeneland brilliance to win the Kentucky Derby. And, though he does have a stalking gear, he’ll still be closer to a likely fiery pace than a lot of other major contenders – making him only somewhat interesting if a massive forward bias unfolds on the Churchill Downs dirt come Derby day.

Who Will Win the Kentucky Derby Today at Churchill Downs?

We’ve talked enough about the pace setup, and about which horses might be underlays at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. But – who are the best bets in the Kentucky Derby? These Kentucky Derby picks are long on skill – and also should bring the win bet and exotic ticket value that Kentucky Derby betting is all about.

The Puma

The Florida Derby (G1) was the deepest prep on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Sure, the race only drew a field of six – but the top three finishers were separated by just half a length, and they were horses who repeatedly ran fast races in good company.

For Kentucky Derby bettors, perhaps the best thing that could have ever happened at Gulfstream Park on March 28 was for The Puma to miss that photo by a nose. After all, it means there won’t be the “winner’s tax” at the windows, the shorter odds on a horse coming off a win. Not to mention, there’s even a trend of horses running well but not winning their final prep. The last Kentucky Derby winner to win their last prep was Authentic in 2020.

The Puma debuted in a strong maiden race, breaking slowly, rushing up, and only being caught by a horse who emerged as a strong Kentucky Derby prospect in his own right, Chief Wallabee. Though he was no match for Renegade in the Sam F. Davis, that was his first route try, and he has been much better in his last two starts. He won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) next out – not only proving he could find the wire, but proving he could run well somewhere other than Gulfstream. He then rallied early from last to first into a slow pace in the Florida Derby, just getting caught by Commandment.

The pedigree also appeals for trying 1 ¼ miles. Sire Essential Quality, a son of the stamina merchant Tapit, is a Belmont Stakes winner and a Travers (G1) winner. Damsire Declaration of War liked 1 ¼ miles on turf (and dirt – he missed by a head in the Breeders’ Cup Classic), and there’s enough turf stamina in the family to suggest the Kentucky Derby trip will suit.

Javier Castellano, who has been in the irons for The Puma’s three best outings, remains in the irons. Castellano has won the Kentucky Derby once before, with Mage in 2023 – another Florida Derby runner-up trained by Gustavo Delgado. From a nice middle gate, with a nice pace setup, The Puma is ready to turn the tables on the biggest stage of them all.

Commandment

Even though all the Arkansas Derby buzz has made Renegade the favorite in the futures markets and the morning line, there is every reason that Commandment should be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. The margins of his prep-race victories weren’t flashy – he beat Chief Wallabee by a neck in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and then The Puma by a nose in the Florida Derby. But, he got there, and this midpack runner stands to get an even better pace setup on Saturday.

Commandment has also proven he’s not just a Gulfstream Park horse. His three stakes victories have all come there, but the Brad Cox trainee broke his maiden on November 1 at Churchill Downs despite breaking a step slow. Thus, he has proven he can handle the footing over the Kentucky Derby course.

In terms of pedigree, his sire needs no introduction: Into Mischief has produced three Kentucky Derby winners, the joint most of all time. Damsire Orb is a Kentucky Derby winner as well, and though most of the class in the female family has come sprinting or going middle distances, his dam Sippican Harbor is half to Awesome Result, a stakes winner at distances between 1 ⅛ miles and 1 5/16 miles.

The biggest question mark with Commandment is the jockey factor – his Florida Derby rider, Flavien Prat, had committed to ride Emerging Market, and his Fountain of Youth rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the call on Renegade. But, he not only gets a capable replacement with Luis Saez – he gets a jockey who has ridden some of the best of the best for Cox, like Belmont Stakes winner Essential Quality and Kentucky Oaks winner Good Cheer.

Chief Wallabee

The Florida Derby form is the key form coming into the Kentucky Derby – Chief Wallabee is the one with the most questions, but also has too much upside to keep out completely, especially since he spent his winter battling with The Puma and Commandment.

This goes all the way back to his maiden win, a fast and impressive seven-furlong win over The Puma that impressed Bill Mott enough to put Chief Wallabee in the Fountain of Youth for his next start. He missed by a neck to Commandment there, and then rallied just too late in the Florida Derby, missing by half a length behind … who else? The Puma and Commandment.

Despite running just three starts, Chief Wallabee has shown good versatility in running style, running good races from a close-stalking spot in two of his starts, as well as further back in the Fountain of Youth. With all the speed likely in the Kentucky Derby, plus the inherent chaos of a 20-horse field, this tractability can help him get a good trip.

The biggest questions about Chief Wallabee are the addition of blinkers and the lack of races outside Gulfstream Park. Often, an equipment change before the Kentucky Derby is a reason for concern, though a good work at Churchill Downs with blinkers allays those concerns somewhat, as does Bill Mott’s strong record going blinkers-on. He also has to prove he isn’t just a Gulfstream Park horse. But, especially with other prospects having stronger reasons to look elsewhere, Chief Wallabee’s strength of schedule is too good to ignore.

Kentucky Derby Honorable Mention: Golden Tempo

As of Thursday morning, there have already been two defections from the Kentucky Derby – but both of those have been late-running types, meaning the pace is still expected to be a hot one. That’s good news for long shot special Golden Tempo, a horse with plenty of stamina who should appreciate that pace to close into.

Golden Tempo has one of the best 1 ¼-mile pedigrees in the race. His sire Curlin has been a premier American source of stamina for over a decade, his damsire is Preakness Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) winner Bernardini, and his dam’s family has class and stamina both on dirt and turf. His performance in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds was a step forward from what he had shown in shorter races, and though he missed by a length behind Emerging Market and Pavlovian? The pace will not be as kind to forward horses on Kentucky Derby day, giving him the chance to turn the tables.

The connections of Golden Tempo also appeal, especially in the context of the horse being a long shot. Though this is trainer Cherie DeVaux’s first Kentucky Derby, she was a longtime assistant for Chad Brown before striking out on her own, and she has seven Grade 1 wins, including in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. She also has a strong partnership with jockey Jose Ortiz, who has been riding Golden Tempo throughout his career and should know how to get the best out of him.

Check out our favorite Kentucky Derby longshot bets.

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