Keeneland Picks: Blue Grass Stakes Day, 4/8/2025

Keeneland begins its live horse racing meet Friday, and the track hosts its major Kentucky Derby prep on Tuesday, April 8: the Blue Grass (G1). The card was originally scheduled for Saturday, but pushed out because of a forecast of severe weather and flooding.

The 1 ⅛-mile race offers a purse of $1.25 million, as well as 100-50-25-15-10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points for the top five finishers. That gets the top two into the Run for the Roses, and others may run there as well if they did well in another prep or two.

In addition to the Blue Grass, the day’s races at Keeneland include four other stakes races: the Madison (G1) for older filly and mare dirt sprinters, the Appalachian (G2) for sophomore filly turf milers, the Shakertown (G2), and the Commonwealth (G3), both for older turf sprinters. The 11-race card gets underway at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. With big fields and top-class horses all day, make sure to watch FanDuel TV all day long, and place your bets at FanDuel!

Don’t forget to check program scratches and weather in advance of the races. Note that selections typically depend on assessing class and pace based on the horses entered in the race, but key scratches can shift that balance and even that pace scenario after you handicap the day’s races. Even if the skies are clear, scratches can happen for any reason, so taking a few minutes to check on race day before you bet is a smart move.

Keeneland Picks

Race 7 - Commonwealth Stakes (G3), seven furlongs on the dirt - Extra Anejo, Epic Ride

FanDuel odds: 8-1 and 6-1

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Extra Anejo (8-1) has not raced since last September, when he won a 7 ½-furlong allowance on the Churchill Downs dirt. This talented Steve Asmussen trainee has not yet broken through at the graded level, but he frequently runs races fast enough to contend with this kind of company, and his one try at Keeneland was a dynamite seven-furlong maiden win. His running style should go well in this race: though he is often forward, he is tactical enough to even stalk or sit midpack if necessary; a style tracking a couple of lengths off seems most advantageous here. He also reliably runs well off a break, and he gets the services of Flavien Prat, the best big-race rider going today.

Epic Ride (6-1) has gotten a couple of allowance-level confidence builders at Turfway through the winter, and all his career wins have come on synthetic. However, this son of Blame has run well on dirt, particularly at Keeneland: he was third in the two-turn Blue Grass (G1) last spring, and a much closer third in the seven-furlong Perryville (G3) over that same course in the fall. Sprints are where he belongs. And, even though he wired both of his allowance wins at Turfway this year, he ran well in the Perryville from a stalking spot, and has run well from that style multiple times. Especially since this John Ennis trainee is likely to get away being a price with so many bigger-name trainers in the race, the value will be there to bet that he fires his best shot.

Race 8 - Madison Stakes (G1), seven furlongs on the dirt - Emery, Justique

FanDuel odds: 3-1 and 9-2

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Though she has class, especially at a short price there are still questions around morning-line favorite Scylla at these sprint distances, where she has been decent but more an underneath type than a winner against top filly and mare sprinters. Emery (3-1) just missed last out in the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream, but it was a fine first effort against older horses. This four-year-old filly now returns to Keeneland with that experience under her girth. She has won both starts at Keeneland, including the seven-furlong Raven Run (G2) last out. This Brad Cox trainee has also never been worse than second in four tries at this seven-furlong distance, and she has the tactical speed to work a good trip without leaving too much to do.

Justique (9-2) started her career sprinting on the dirt, including winning a seven-furlong stakes. She held her own on the turf after that, but after moving to the Cherie DeVaux barn for her five-year-old campaign, she has returned to her dirt-sprinting roots. That has been fruitful for Justique: she is undefeated in two starts this year and now steps up to the top level. With quite a few runners in her who show speed, there could be plenty to rally into—and although Justique can be a deep closer, she has several races, including a six-furlong win two back in which she was able to track much closer to the pace. That could be just the ticket for Justique to show the ability she has always hinted at, at a square price to boot.

Race 10 - Blue Grass Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt - Burnham Square, Owen Almighty

FanDuel odds: 4-1 and 3-1

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With several horses likely to want the lead in the Blue Grass, but forward placements still generally advantageous due to the track configuration, a good horse who can get the trip in range from just behind the lead appeals strongly in the Blue Grass. That looks like Burnham Square (4-1). He regressed just a little bit from his Holy Bull win in the Fountain of Youth, but it wasn’t a bad effort, all things considered, and could set him up to move forward again in the Blue Grass. He won’t be fighting for the lead, but he has shown himself to be versatile enough to either win with a true closing trip or sitting closer off the pace. That versatility helps, and a good debut at Keeneland last October means the footing should be good for him, too.

This is Keeneland, and sometimes speed just keeps going. And, if speed just keeps going, Owen Almighty (3-1) will be the one to do it. Not only does he have wicked early speed, but over and over again he keeps running on after protracted duels. He’ll have to draw on that grit and that stamina once again with horses like East Avenue and River Thames in the field, but he just keeps showing up, and Keeneland’s short stretch should play to his advantage.

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