Keeneland: Ashland Day Picks, 4/7/2025

Severe weather caused Keeneland to push the Ashland Stakes Day card out a few days, but the card, which features both the final 100-point Kentucky Derby prep and the first major two-year-old race of the season, has been moved in its entirety from its original Friday date to Monday, April 7.

The Ashland Stakes (G1), a 1 1/16-mile dirt race for three-year-old fillies, drew a field of eight to compete for 100-50-25-15-10 Road to the Kentucky Oaks points. That means the top two are virtually certain to have a spot in the Kentucky Oaks, and others may proceed to Churchill Downs as well if they have run well in other preps.

Racing at Keeneland gets underway Monday at 1 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. Other stakes races on the Monday card at Keeneland include the Transylvania (G3) for sophomores on the lawn, as well as the Lafayette for three-year-old dirt sprinters. It’s a full day of class horses and competitive fields, so watch all day long at FanDuel TV and place your bets online from anywhere at FanDuel!

Remember to check the scratches before placing your bets. Dry weather and clear skies are expected Monday, at least as of a few days out, but weather can change and scratches can happen for any reason. Since they can affect the class balance and the pace scenario, it pays to make sure the race you’re betting is the same one you handicapped.

With less than a month until the race, get the latest Kentucky Derby Odds and see which Kentucky Derby Contenders are set to win.

Keeneland: Ashland Stakes Day Picks

Race 1 - Maiden special weight, 4 ½ furlongs on the dirt - Double Talker (AE), Pinky Fingers, Chatterfield

FanDuel odds: 7-2 (if he gets in off the AE list), 7-5, and 20-1

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This race is the traditional Keeneland lid-lifter: a 4 ½-furlong baby race on the dirt, featuring a full field of first-time starters.

Wesley Ward has a pair, and as usual for the king of the baby races at Keeneland, they look live. Pinky Fingers (7-5) is by 17% first-timer sire Army Mule. She is the first starter out of her dam, who didn’t break her maiden until fourth time out, but is out of a half-sister to the dam of the classy and precocious Pretty Birdie, a debut juvenile maiden winner and a Schuylerville (G3) winner in her second start.

There’s plenty to like … but even more to like about Double Talker (7-2), the other Ward, if he draws in off the also-eligible list. Double Talker is by Hootenanny, a stellar 21% winner with his first-time starters. And, though dam Valentine’s Nay never raced, she is by another precocious Wesley Ward horse in No Nay Never, and her second dam won at first asking in April of her two-year-old year. With the position on the also-eligible list, he may get overlooked in the betting, but there is a lot to like, and he is worth a play if he draws into the race.

From a pedigree perspective, John Ennis has an interesting long shot in Chatterfield (20-1). She’ll be a first look at sire Maxfield; though Maxfield was a route horse, he did win first-time out at two and proved a top-class juvenile, so the genes may be there. His dam not only won first-out as well, but should have some good genes for going short like this: dam Just Talkin was a stakes-placed sprinter herself, and is also a full sister to top-class turf sprinter Lady Shipman. As with all juvenile races, it’s always good to look in the post parade and see how they look … but if it looks Chatterfield’s head is together, he is worth a shot at long odds, based on the pedigree.

Race 7 - Lafayette Stakes, seven furlongs on the dirt - Gate to Wire, Colloquial

FanDuel odds: 9-2, 6-5

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Seven-furlong horses win seven-furlong races, and Munnings has sired a lot of seven-furlong horses. He sired Gate to Wire (9-2), who started his career on the lawn, winning on debut in a turf dash and hitting the board in a six-furlong turf sprint last fall. But, he had his real breakout effort February 1 at Gulfstream, when he won the seven-furlong Swale in stalk-and-pounce fashion, his first try on the dirt. He was troubled in the Fountain of Youth (G2), meaning it’s hard to pass on how much stamina his dam’s side gave him. But, on the turnback, that’s a question for another day—today, he’s a horse whose light came on in a seven-furlong sprint, he’s got a nice tactical running style to sit just off of a lot of one-way speed, and he is impeccably placed.

Colloquial (6-5) tries seven furlongs for the first time, but he improved sharply in his second career start, which came at 6 ½ furlongs on the dirt at Aqueduct. That’s long enough to prove he doesn’t need just the conventional six furlongs, and being by Vekoma out of a Bernardini mare, he has every right to find the extra half furlong no trouble. He tracked a modest pace at Aqueduct last out before winning in a joyous seven-furlong romp … and second-place One Nine Hundred came back to win a seven-length blowout of his own in his next start, which also came in maiden special weight company at Aqueduct.

Race 9 - Ashland Stakes (G1), 1 1/16 miles on the dirt - Take Charge Milady, Supa Speed

FanDuel odds: 8-1 and 4-1

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Take Charge Milady (8-1) ran a troubled tenth in the Honeybee (G3), but there is reason to think she can bounce back for trainer Kenny McPeek, a prodigious Ashland Stakes winner throughout his career. In her previous starts, Take Charge Milady was closer to the pace, meaning bad starts haven’t emerged as a pattern for her. If she can get that tracking trip, she could get first run on speedballs like Running Away, Milady, and even rail-drawn Look Forward, whose hand looks forced. It’s also worth noting what a quality win she had two back—she beat Quietside in the Martha Washington, and Quietside came back to win not only the Honeybee but also the Fantasy (G2) after it.

Her name may be Supa Speed (4-1), but don’t expect this daughter of Justify to get embroiled in the pace battle: she stalked, pounced, and just missed in her dirt debut last out in the Santa Ysabel (G2). She also showed good tactical speed, or even a midpack style when necessary, in her earlier turf races. The ability to track close to West Coast speed last out should translate well to Keeneland, and trainer John Sadler often fires when he decides to put a horse on a plane.

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