Justin Fields Could Run Away With the QB Rushing Crown

The Chicago Bears managed just three wins in 2022, but their season wasn't short on exciting moments. Those largely came via quarterback Justin Fields, who exploded onto the scene over the final two months of the season.

With Fields doing the bulk of his damage on the ground, he enters 2023 as the odds-on favorite to lead the quarterback position in rushing, per the NFL odds in the season leader markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Fields lapped the competition last year, rushing for 1,143 yards -- nearly 400 more than the next-closest quarterback. Let's dive into what it'll take for him to take home the crown again in 2023.

QB Rushing Leader Trends

Here's how the past five quarterback rushing leaders have fared, starting with incumbent Justin Fields.

Fields' 2022 season was the fourth 1,000-yard rushing season from a quarterback since 2000 -- joining Michael Vick ('06) and Lamar Jackson ('19, '20). Other than those three, only Kyler Murray in ('20) and Russell Wilson ('14) even eclipsed the 800-yard mark.

Justin Fields 2023 Outlook

Fields ran away with the rushing title last year, recording the most quarterback rushing yards since Lamar's MVP season. Even more impressive was the fact he played only 15 games -- giving him more room to grow in 2023.

Last year, Fields averaged 76.2 yards per game, sixth in the NFL among all players, including running backs. He finished as Next Gen Stats' most explosive runner of 2022 regardless of position and exploded for more than 130 rushing yards in a game on three separate occasions.

Jackson (63.7 yards per game) was the only signal caller in the same stratosphere as Fields on a per-carry basis. Consequently, Jackson has the second-shortest odds in this market at +260.

If Fields produces another 1,000-yard season, Lamar is likely the only quarterback who can challenge him for the rushing crown. Jackson has done it before, winning three rushing crowns and eclipsing 1,000 yards twice. However, with the Ravens' scheme change reportedly focusing more on the passing attack, Jackson may not see as many designed runs as he has in the past.

Even if Jackson does run like usual, Fields' finish to 2022 suggests he could rival Lamar's peak rushing seasons. After rushing for just 48 yards over Chicago's first two games, Fields took flight over the final three months.

From Week 2 onward, Fields averaged 84.6 rushing yards per game -- putting him on pace for 1,400 yards over the course of a full 17-game season. Over that span, he ranked fifth among quarterbacks with 0.49 Expected Points Added (EPA) per carry -- though, he was the only one in the top five with at least seven carries per game.

That workload is what makes Fields a front-runner in this market this year. He recorded at least 7 carries in all 15 games last season, totting the rock 10-plus times in eight games. While some of those came via scrambles, Fields could see an even heavier designed run workload in 2023.

The Bears let go of David Montgomery this offseason, freeing up 36% of their carries. While newcomer D'Onta Foreman will soak up some of those and Khalil Herbert should see an uptick in usage, Fields could take on some of them, too.

The Bears were one of the most run-heavy teams in the league last season, ranking second in rush rate (48%) and recording the lowest pass rate over expected (-14.1%) in the NFL. As a result, there should be plenty of carries for Fields to run wild and take the quarterback rushing crown for a second straight season -- as long as he stays healthy.

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