Journalism vs. Sovereignty: Will Rest Help in the Belmont Stakes?

Key Takeaways:

• This year’s Belmont is shaping up to be a showdown between Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness winner Journalism.
• Making it more interesting, recent trends show no strong advantage between horses who skip the Preakness and those who run all three Triple Crown races.
• Of the six serious 2025 Belmont contenders, four (Sovereignty, Baeza, Journalism, Hill Road) are in a position to potentially win the race.

The final jewel of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes, happens at Saratoga Race Course on June 7. Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty is expected to compete—after all, trainer Bill Mott said soon after his victory at Churchill Downs that Sovereignty would skip the Preakness Stakes and go straight to the Belmont. Journalism, second across the finish line in the Kentucky Derby, returned two weeks later for the Preakness at Pimlico Race Course, and won by a half length after a heroic late run.

A showdown between Sovereignty and Journalism will be exciting, and both horses will be well bet if they make it into the Belmont starting gate. But, will rest help Sovereignty keep the edge over Journalism? Or, will Journalism’s more demanding schedule give him the experience and race fitness to turn the tables?

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Where the Belmont Horses Are Coming From

The Belmont field is still taking shape. As it stands, five days before the draw, two horses are expected to come straight from the Kentucky Derby into the Belmont Stakes. Top of that list is, of course, Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty. The other also ran well in Louisville: Baeza, who overcame the outer gate to run third in the Derby.

Two others are likely to come from the Preakness. Journalism contested both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, just like the recent Belmont winners to come out of the Preakness. Heart of Honor, on the other hand, bypassed the Kentucky Derby after finishing second in the UAE Derby (G2) and went straight to the Preakness.

Only one horse, winner Hill Road, is expected to come out of the Peter Pan. Hill Road won that race—and two out of the three recent winners of the Belmont to come from the Peter Pan, Arcangelo and Tonalist, also won it. Sir Winston ran second.

Notably, Rodriguez scratched from the Kentucky Derby due to a foot issue and then bypassed the Preakness because he was still healing. He bucks recent trends of Belmont winners, as he has not run since winning the Wood Memorial on April 5, making it 64 days between that and the Belmont.

How Often Do Horses Race?

Horses at all levels race less often than they used to, though even now, there is always a balance to walk between taking enough time to prepare and being race fit. Too many races in a short period of time, and a horse can get tired. However, too long between races and a horse may not be completely race fit, physically or mentally. Training in the mornings off a layoff can help, but between the long distances of Triple Crown races and the psychological aspect of having to deal with traffic and trouble in a large pack of horses who a horse won’t see during morning training, there is no substitute for being race fit.

Finding this balance is a challenge every trainer has to face. Depending on each horse’s body and mind, as well as the approach of the training program, whether to run a horse in all three Triple Crown races or take the Preakness off is a subjective decision. However, when trying to decide whether to bet Sovereignty or Journalism (or another horse!) in the 2025 Preakness, it is worth looking at trends to see what kinds of campaigns have been most successful in winning the Belmont.

What Is Better: Running in All Three Triple Crown Races or Skipping the Preakness?

Since training styles have changed over the years, as has the way to get into the Kentucky Derby in the first place, it is more enlightening to look at performances of horses who raced in all three legs of the Kentucky Derby in recent times to see how those stack up against horses following the broader trend of spacing out top-class stakes races.

Horses Who Raced in All Three Triple Crown Races

There has been a sharp decline in horses racing in all three legs of the Triple Crown, in keeping with the tendency for top stakes horses to race less often than they used to. In fact, Mystik Dan in 2024 was the first horse in four years to even attempt all three races. Since the beginning of the Triple Crown, only two of the 15 horses who raced in all three Triple Crown events actually won the Belmont—the two Triple Crown winners. Three others have run third, and the other 10 have finished off the board.

Here are the horses who have raced in all three legs of the Triple Crown since the advent of the points system in 2013:

* In 2020, because of the COVID pandemic, the Belmont was run on June 20 as the first race of the Triple Crown series. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness were run in September.

Horses Who Skipped the Preakness Stakes

Though it is not common for the Kentucky Derby winner to skip the Preakness like Sovereignty did, it is not unprecedented, particularly in recent times. Bill Mott bucked a long trend of sending Kentucky Derby winners to the Preakness when he opted out with Country House in 2019. Eric Reed followed suit in 2022 with Rich Strike, routing him straight to the Belmont. And now, Bill Mott made Sovereignty the third horse since 2019 to bypass Pimlico.

At least three horses in every year since the first points-era Derby went straight to the Belmont, except for in 2020 when the Belmont was the first race of the Triple Crown series. These are the horses who have done so in that time, their placings in the Derby, and their placings in the Belmont.

A total of 49 horses have raced in the Kentucky Derby and then gone on directly to the Belmont Stakes since the advent of the points system. Six of them won, good for a 12% rate—which is right on par with the 13% Belmont strike rate (2-for-15) for points-era horses who raced in all three legs of the Triple Crown in that time.

As for horses finishing in the top three, 17 of the 49 horses who went from the Derby to the Belmont in the points era have finished in the money, a 35% rate. This is also on par with horses who ran in all three legs of the Triple Crown in that time, who are 33% (5-for-10) in the money.

Profile of a Belmont-Winning Campaign

Another angle is: what does a Belmont winner’s profile look like? Again, we look at the races since the advent of the points system, since that was a significant change to how three-year-old campaigns were designed when the Triple Crown was in mind.

In that time, six out of the 12 Belmont winners came straight from Churchill Downs and the Derby, making that a strong indicator for Belmont winners. Two came out of the Preakness—Triple Crown winners, American Pharoah and Justify. Three came from the Peter Pan (G3), the local prep race for the Belmont Stakes.

Tiz the Law won the Belmont after lying off for almost three months after the Florida Derby (G1). However, that happened in 2020, when the racing schedule was in upheaval due to the COVID pandemic, making the Belmont the first leg of the Triple Crown that year.

This is a chart of Belmont winners since 2013, including their trainers, how many starts each horse made before the Belmont, the last race they started before the Belmont, and how many days rest they had before the final jewel of the Triple Crown.

* In 2020, because of the COVID pandemic, the Belmont Stakes was run on June 20 as the first race of the Triple Crown series. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness were run in September.

What This Means for Journalism, Sovereignty, and Their Foes

Based on recent trends, that doesn’t seem to be a strong percentage play to say that racing in all three Triple Crown races versus going straight from the Kentucky Derby to the Belmont is better—though there are more winners straight from Churchill Downs’ signature race, but there are also more horses who took that route, and the percentages are quite close

In fact, out of the six horses in serious Belmont conversation five days out from the draw, four fit the recent campaign profiles of recent Belmont winners: Sovereignty and Baeza coming from the Derby, Journalism coming from the Derby and the Preakness, and Hill Road coming from the Peter Pan. Thus, factors like pace setup and how the horses appear in final training toward the Belmont will be more important than ever.

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