Joe Mixon Can Bounce Back in Fantasy This Season

With the NFL season less than two months away, it's time to start doing some research for fantasy football drafts.

We're going to look at Joe Mixon here. Mixon looked like he could be on his way to getting cut from the Cincinnati Bengals, but a contract restructuring allowed him to stay with the team.

If the fantasy market doesn't adjust, Mixon is a nice value in drafts.

Joe Mixon Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.

Fantasy Points: 251.6 (210.7 in 2022)
Positional Rank: RB10
2023 Projection:

• 1,188 rushing yards
• 10.50 rushing TDs
• 46 receptions
• 321 receiving yards
• 2.41 receiving TDs

Joe Mixon Fantasy Football Outlook

Many Opportunities in 2022

2022 was a strange year for Mixon. He saw a good amount of volume and had one of the better workloads for a running back. He finished as the RB9 when looking at points per game in half-PPR scoring.

Yet, many fantasy managers were frustrated by Mixon for much of the season. He only had one game with more than 20 fantasy points the entire season. That was a five-touchdown eruption in Week 9.

The promising part of Mixon's game was his work through the air. He saw a career-high 75 targets and caught 60 balls despite missing three games. That was the fifth-most receptions among running backs in 2022.

Mixon did underwhelm when looking at pure yardage totals. That Week 9 performance was also his only regular season game above 100 yards. We'd like more from a running back that was likely selected in the first two rounds of most fantasy drafts. However, when looking a bit deeper into his advanced metrics, he is much more respectable.

In rush yards over expectation per attempt, Mixon averaged 0.22 yards. That's nothing to write home about, but it does show that he wasn't a total lost cause when running the ball. In rush percentage over expected, he rates even better. His mark (41.7%) wasn't too far behind the likes of Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs while ahead of fantasy stars like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler.

Set Up Nicely For 2023

Mixon's situation is fairly underrated heading into the 2023 season. After months of speculation, he will remain on the Bengals.

We know it's likely the Bengals will have one of the best offenses in the NFL. With Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, they form one of the most dangerous passing attacks. Mixon was able to benefit from this in 2021, scoring 16 total touchdowns.

Samaje Perine was Mixon's main competition for touches in 2022. He's now joined the Denver Broncos and was not truly replaced. The main backs that Cincinnati is carrying besides Mixon currently are Trayveon Williams, Chris Evans and rookie Chase Brown. Williams and Evans haven't seen much playing time in multiple years in the NFL, and Brown is a fifth-rounder from Illinois.

This should set up Mixon to see a large workload this season. He'll be seeing lots of goal-line work as he did last year, amassing 48.8% of the team's red-zone carries and 14.1% of their red-zone targets last season.

Cincinnati has struggled on the offensive line for years, but the huge offseason signing of Orlando Brown at tackle should help improve the line overall.

Where Should Mixon Be Drafted?

Currently, Mixon is going as the RB16 in half-PPR drafts, holding an average draft position (ADP) of 46.0. In FanDuel best-ball contests, he's going a bit higher as the RB13 with an ADP of 35.4.

Mixon is a fairly good value at that RB16 spot. With the concern that he might be cut now removed, it should see him get closer to the 13th spot where he is going on FanDuel.

In 2021, Mixon was the RB3 in half-PPR scoring. He certainly benefited from playing in the Bengals' explosive offense and could easily do the same this season.

It makes a lot of sense to target Mixon in drafts within the next two weeks because his value may not be reflected in his current average draft position.

A cause for concern would be a lingering off-the-field incident that could result in a suspension. The NFL has been dragging its feet on a suspension for Alvin Kamara after an incident last offseason, so Mixon may be able to avoid any potential punishment this season.

There are some free agents out there that the Bengals could bring in that may cut into Mixon's workload. Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dalvin Cook are all still available. With the lack of depth behind Mixon, Cincy could sign one of them, and they may command more playing time than any of their current backups.

Mixon can certainly be a top-10 back this season if he gets back to what he showed in 2021. The Bengals' offense is strong enough to put him in good situations to score a lot of touchdowns. If you're in a draft and looking to take an RB in round four, right now it's hard to find someone better than Mixon.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.