James Cook Can Chef Up Fantasy Stardom as Buffalo's RB1

Every year the preseason hype train surrounds certain players.

For the Buffalo Bills, that train has run rampant around James Cook.

The 2022 second-round pick flashed serious potential in a limited role as a rookie but finished as the RB44. Now, with Devin Singletary gone and Nyheim Hines out for the season, Cook enters 2023 as the defacto starter.

Still, the Bills are clearly a pass-first offense and a Buffalo running back hasn't finished inside the top 20 in fantasy since Josh Allen became the starter in 2018. Can Cook buck that trend, or is he just the latest preseason star who won't produce in the regular season?

James Cook Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire for half-PPR.

Fantasy Points Projection: 163.08

Positional Projection: RB29

Projected Stats:

• 176.47 rushing attempts
• 814.72 rushing yards
• 4.90 rushing touchdowns
• 34.95 receptions
• 49.25 rargets
• 252.90 receiving yards
• 1.88 receiving touchdowns

James Cook Fantasy Football Outlook

Rookie Rewind

Buffalo selected James Cook with the 63rd overall pick prior to last season. The rookie from the University of Georgia was the third running back selected in 2022 behind only Breece Hall (No. 36) and Kenneth Walker III (No. 41). In college, Cook was something of a late bloomer, breaking out during his senior season during which he racked up 1,012 total yards and 11 total touchdowns for the national champion Bulldogs.

As a rookie, Cook received a moderate amount of hype heading into the season and was drafted as the RB39 (No. 109 overall). He suffered from inconsistent playing time and usage -- especially during the first half of the season. However, Cook began to see an increased workload from Week 13 onward.

After garnering a measly 17% snap share for the first 12 weeks, Cook entrenched himself in a timeshare with Devin Singletary to finish the season. Singletary had a slight advantage in snap share from Week 13 onward, but the two had an identical 30.4% red zone rushing share and Cook actually averaged more adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) by a count of 15.4 to 14.2

The more Cook had the ball in his hands, the more effective he proved to be. During that five-game stretch to close out the regular season, Cook averaged 0.16 rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play -- an expected points added model that indicates how much a player impacts expected scoring.

Take that five-game sample with a grain of salt, but even Cook's season-long 0.13 rush NEP/P was greater than a number of high-profile backs such as Nick Chubb (0.12), Christian McCaffrey (0.08), and Josh Jacobs (0.08).

Still, Cook amassed double-digit fantasy points just three times in 2022 with a 17.3-point, RB10 performance in Week 16 serving as the highlight of his fantasy season. Consequently, his 2023 prospects are mere speculation at this point, but he certainly projects for a monster uptick in opportunity headed into this season.

Buffalo Backs

Volume is king in fantasy -- especially at the running back position.

Regardless of how effective a player is on a per-touch basis, they won't be a valuable member of your fantasy team unless they have the proper workload. While Cook lacked that workload last season, all signs are pointing toward him being the clear No. 1 back in Buffalo.

The Bills let long-time starter Devin Singletary walk in free agency and presumed third down back Nyheim Hines has already been ruled out for the season with a knee injury. That leaves Cook, Damien Harris, and Latavius Murray as the three backs vying for touches in the Buffalo backfield.

Harris appeared in just 10 games last season due to various injuries and has yet to appear in a preseason game due to knee soreness. While he and Murray will inevitably steal work from Cook, both are on one-year deals for less than $2 million a piece. Buffalo invested significant draft capital in Cook and, if training camp is any indication, he's the clear-cut starter.

He played sparingly in the preseason but scored in their opener against the Indianapolis Colts. Then, in their second preseason game, Cook worked exclusively with the first-team offense. In that game, he was on the field for 15 of Josh Allen's 16 snaps compared to just 2 for Murray.

It remains to be seen how much Damien Harris impacts Cook's usage but it bears repeating that Buffalo used a second-round pick on him just last season. The Bills have been looking for a running back to pair with Josh Allen for some time now, notably investing third-round picks in Singletary and Zack Moss in 2019 and 2020. While Singletary was fine from a fantasy perspective, Moss was a clear miss, and now neither is with the team.

Yes, Josh Allen will steal touches. Regardless of what he (and the team) says about his rushing usage, he's seen his rushing market share climb each season of his career. It was up to 28.8% last season. Perhaps a heavier dose of Cook will help Allen cut back on his own attempts, but that's more than speculation at this point.

Regardless, Cook will be the RB1 in Buffalo. The question is where should he fit into your fantasy roster?

Final Verdict

With all of the preseason hype surrounding him, James Cook has (rightfully) been flying up draft boards.

Still, his ADP sits at just No. 76 overall, which is the fourth pick of the seventh round in 12-team leagues. That slots him in as the RB31 behind David Montgomery (ADP of 75), Isiah Pacheco (73), Rachaad White (72), and his brother Dalvin Cook (70).

Looking at some of the other positions around him, garnering Cook's services would mean passing up on: receivers such as Mike Williams (71), Christian Kirk (74), or Michael Pittman Jr. (77); tight ends like Evan Engram (80) or Pat Freiermuth (85); and quarterbacks Dak Prescott (78) or Deshaun Watson (82).

At the end of the day, there aren't many players going as late as James Cook who have his upside.

While there is a clear path to fantasy relevance for Cook, he's likely not going to finish as a top-12 back. That said, considering a less-talented Devin Singletary finished as the RB24 last season, he's more than capable of being an RB2.

At his current ADP, James Cook could wind up being a steal in fantasy football drafts and is a huge value in the seventh round.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.