The Detroit Lions used the No. 12 overall pick in this year's draft on running back Jahmyr Gibbs. First-round running backs are few and far between these days, but there is certainly a precedent of backs taken in the first round having impact fantasy seasons in Year 1.

Can Gibbs be the latest rookie star in fantasy football?

Ranking and average draft position (ADP) data for half-PPR scoring.

Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Projection: 867 rushing yards, 7.5 rushing TDs, 40 receptions, 308 receiving yards, 2.3 receiving TDs (194.09 half-PPR points)

numberFire Positional Projection: RB22

Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Football Outlook

After Bijan Robinson went fourth in the 2023 NFL Draft, Gibbs became just the ninth back selected in the first round over the past six seasons. Here's how those rookies fared in fantasy:

Not counting Travis Etienne's lost rookie year, four of the six outperformed their ADP while two finished in the top five at the position.

Gibbs is certainly getting respect in the fantasy world despite not yet playing a single down of professional football. Per FantasyPros, Gibbs is currently being drafted as the RB16 and 37th player overall. With his pedigree, he has a chance to blow past that RB2 projection.

Prospect Profile

Gibbs was a four-star high school prospect who spent the first two years in college at Georgia Tech, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and racking up 59 receptions in 19 games for the Yellow Jackets. After a strong sophomore season, Gibbs transferred to Alabama and truly exploded onto the scene.

In his lone season with the Crimson Tide (and his final college campaign), Gibbs rushed for 926 yards (6.1 yards per carry) and racked up 10 total touchdowns. He continued to evolve as a pass-catcher in Tuscaloosa, snagging 44 receptions for 444 yards in 12 games. His wide impact was recognized with third-team AP All-American honors as an all-purpose player.

Gibbs' ability to impact the game in a variety of ways is a testament to his elite athleticism. He ran a blazing 4.36 40-yard dash but somehow looks even faster in pads.

For as talented of a runner as Gibbs is, his best fantasy attribute in Year 1 might wind up being his pass-catching ability. He led Alabama with 44 receptions last season and is skilled as both a safety valve underneath and a weapon down the field. It isn't every day you see a running back with hands these soft.

His receiving work is something that will likely help him earn immediate playing time, and it's a big deal for his fantasy prospects.

Fit in Detroit

Gibbs won't be the only running back in Detroit, as the Lions added former Chicago Bears bruiser David Montgomery to work alongside Gibbs. Montgomery is a capable back, but he received just a 64.0 receiving grade last year, per PFF. That ranked 62nd among running backs and offers Gibbs an immediate avenue toward production.

Gibbs' pass-game skills could be fully realized thanks to Jared Goff. Goff took a big step forward last season and is a viable fantasy option in his own right. For Gibbs' purposes, however, Goff is the king of feeding running backs. He helped Todd Gurley star in Los Angeles and has kept targeting running backs in Detroit.

With Goff at the helm, D'Andre Swift garnered the second- (18.4%) and sixth-highest (15.1%) target share among running backs over the past two seasons. Now that Swift is out of the picture, Gibbs is a natural fit to take on the majority of Detroit's targets out of the backfield.

That receiving work provides Gibbs with an incredibly high floor in any format that rewards points based on receptions.

However, his ceiling will be determined by how heavily he's featured in the running game -- specifically around the goal line.

Last season, the Lions featured two backs. One (Jamaal Williams) did his damage around the goal line, leading the league with 17 touchdowns to go along with 1,066 rushing yards. The other (Swift) provided a spark through the air, racking up the 10th-most targets among running backs despite playing just 14 games.

On paper, it's easy to slot Montgomery in for Williams and Gibbs in for Swift, but it isn't that simple. It's unlikely the Lions made Gibbs their first selection in the draft to deploy him as mostly a gadget player. Gibbs surely won't garner all of the red zone work, but Detroit may split those carries more evenly than they did in 2022.

Gibbs should also benefit from an NFC North that figures to be light on quality defenses. In 2022, all four of the NFC North teams were bottom-five defenses going by yards per play allowed, so Gibbs could find himself in several shootouts this year.

Final Verdict

Although he has yet to play a down in the NFL, Jahmyr Gibbs is already one of the safest running backs in fantasy thanks to his pass-catching chops. At his current ADP of 37th overall, he's as solid of an RB2 as you'll find.

If he can break into Detroit's coveted goal-line work, Gibbs has the potential to finish as an RB1 in fantasy football.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.