It's Unlikely Sam LaPorta Holds Off Others to Repeat as Fantasy Football's Top Tight End

When you talk about busting trends in fantasy football, no season in recent memory broke such established ones as Sam LaPorta's rookie campaign for the Detroit Lions.

Fantasy football is typically a graveyard for rookie tight ends. When looking at FantasyPros' historical half-PPR data, Isaiah Likely was the top rookie tight end at TE26 in 2022, and in 2021, Kyle Pitts -- as a generational talent in an offense without a No. 1 wideout -- finished just as the TE7. Before last season, only two rookie tight ends had finished in the top five of half-PPR points since 2000: Evan Engram (2017) and Jeremy Shockey (2002).

As the second tight end in his own draft class, LaPorta didn't just crack the top five. He used a down season from Travis Kelce and injuries to others to finish as the top overall tight end in half-PPR points (196.3). As a result, he's the first tight end off the board in most drafts in 2024.

The underlying assumption of that position for LaPorta seems sound in theory, right? The young player should get better in a Detroit offense that's expected to dominate this year if their +1300 odds to the win the Super Bowl (fourth-shortest in the NFL) are any indication.

However, should LaPorta's underlying usage and performance concern you to draft him so quickly? Was he fortunate to score as often as he did in 2023? I'd take a second look at the former Iowa Hawkeyes standout.

Sam LaPorta Fantasy Football Outlook

The Best at...Nothing?

The aspect of LaPorta's fantasy case that stands out immediately is that, when selecting a TE1 overall and expecting him to near that effort, you want him to be the best at something. The problem is, of things that directly correlate with fantasy points, LaPorta didn't really dominate any individual category.

LaPorta was just eighth in route percentage (77.2%), fifth in targets per game (7.3), fifth in target share (21.5%), sixth in air yards share (21.4%), sixth in red zone targets per game (1.1), and fourth in downfield targets per game (2.2).

There's something to be said for his consistency to be near the top in all of these categories that matter, but the rookie wasn't at the top in any of them. Other tight ends across the league ran more routes, got more targets and targets downfield, and even saw a higher percentage of looks come scoring time.

So, if you're asking how LaPorta finished as the TE1 without these, look no further than the two categories that are the opposite of given in 2024: games and touchdowns.

LaPorta's 20 total games, including playoffs, led all tight ends and leaked production into the postseason with eyeballs watching. He didn't miss a regular season game, which is how he passed Travis Kelce (15 games) and T.J. Hockenson (15) despite the two surpassing LaPorta in many of the aforementioned categories.

Then, of course, came the scores. LaPorta led all tight ends in touchdowns (10) and touchdowns per game (0.55) when also including the postseason. As mentioned, he wasn't getting the best work in that area of the field, which is why Pro Football Focus (PFF) shows just 6.8 expected touchdowns compared to what he scored.

Touchdowns can be entirely random in a 17-game sample. Selecting LaPorta based on his point output instead of what his work actually merited -- which was just fourth-most expected TDs at the position behind Kelce, David Njoku, and Jake Ferguson -- could be a mistake that leaves draft-day value on the table.

A Loaded Hierarchy

In an ideal world, we'd want such an outstanding role in an offense that touchdowns become a more expected commodity. Call that "The Christian McCaffrey Principle" as McCaffrey's 21 touchdowns last season barely eclipsed his expected total (18.0). The Lions' offense can't possibly present the same situation.

Detroit was actually as balanced in handing out touchdowns to their top performers last year. Motown's vulture rate was extremely low when David Montgomery (13 touchdowns), Jahmyr Gibbs (11), Amon-Ra St. Brown (10), and LaPorta all broke double-digit scores.

On an expected basis, all outperformed their expected marks by at least 2.5 touchdowns, and that's the fear for the offense in fantasy in 2023. Could new faces and players step up to score a few more times? Look no further than Jameson Williams, who scored just twice as 2022's 12th overall pick in the NFL Draft.

To take their offense to the next level, is Williams more involved overall? That could even spell issues for St. Brown (30.6% target share) and LaPorta (21.5%) on the overall target front in addition to the red zone.

Plus, Detroit's rush rate over expectation (4.4%) was fifth-highest in the NFL last season entering a wonky Week 18, and we know Dan Campbell wants to run the dang football.

Saying it out loud without LaPorta's PlayerProfiler page or universal love for this Lions team, a tight end due for significant regression in the touchdown column in a run-first offense with plenty of other options is not a great draft pick. Adding in that it'll take the highest pick at his position makes it worse.

Economics 101, Chapter 87: Opportunity Cost

When taking a macro look at the tight end position in fantasy football, it might be at its most exciting days since a prior era of Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, and Jason Witten in their prime. Selecting LaPorta's profile above all other alternatives becomes an even tougher sell.

After the Lions' big man, Travis Kelce likely isn't going quietly into the night despite rumors of reduced snaps as he ages. George Kittle will still be a game-by-game factor in one of the NFL's most lethal offenses. At 11.3 half-PPR points per game, Mark Andrews nearly matched LaPorta's output on a per-game basis (11.5) last season before his knee injury.

Then, we get to options that could balloon in new circumstances in 2024. Kyle Pitts has a chance to lead the Kirk Cousins-led Atlanta Falcons in targets while recalling his top-10 season the last time he had functional quarterback play. Dalton Kincaid is the clubhouse leader to be Josh Allen's top target this season for the Buffalo Bills. Plus, Brock Bowers projects to be one of the best tight end prospects ever despite a suboptimal landing spot.

The room is suddenly pretty full at the inn when other 2022 and 2023 top performers, such as Trey McBride, Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson, and David Njoku also in the mix. When looking at numberFire's season-long fantasy football projections, there is just an 18.0-fantasy-point gap between LaPorta, going at an average draft position (ADP) of 18.1 in FanDuel's best-ball leagues, and Kyle Pitts at a 70.1 ADP.

That 1.1 or so points per week between the two (assuming a 17-game season) is a massive difference in the player you could pair with either selection.

Sam LaPorta Fantasy Football Projection

If the name of the game here was to pick one guy to lead all tight ends in fantasy points, numberFire is still going with Sam LaPorta.

He's their season-long projections' top overall tight end at 158.6 half-PPR fantasy points, a 37.7-point drop from his TE1 season a year ago. That projection stems from 99.4 catches on 147.3 targets, 1,043.1 projected receiving yards, and 9.0 projected touchdowns -- assuming a healthy, 17-game season as the projections do for all players.

FanDuel Sportsbook's receiving props are significantly lower on LaPorta. Their line of 812.5 receiving yards is set at a pick 'em, and LaPorta shows -130 odds on under 7.5 touchdowns in 2024. Considering his expected touchdown total last season was just 6.8 in a run-first offense, I'd still consider the contrarian under a decent proposition. As unfortunate as it is to say, injury is also on that side, and that's worth remembering.

LaPorta is one of few elite players I can't see myself ending up with in fantasy drafts this season given his TE1 status. I'll happily let my leaguemates select LaPorta's solid -- but not spectacular -- projection and start the run of tight ends. Kelce should follow, and then I can plan and position to end up with high-upside alternatives like McBride, Pitts, Kincaid, or potentially Jake Ferguson at a much lower draft position.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.