Is Joe Mixon the Best Fantasy Football Target on the Texans?

The 2024 Houston Texans are not short on familiar faces in their first year with the squad.

Stefon Diggs jettisoned the Buffalo Bills to link up with C.J. Stroud, one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. Danielle Hunter came over from the Minnesota Vikings with the intent of giving Stroud and the Texans a few more stops after ranking as just the 17th-best schedule-adjusted pass defense a year ago, per numberFire.

However, an addition under the radar might be Joe Mixon in the backfield. Houston dealt for the disgruntled running back that appeared never in line to work out a decent deal with the Cincinnati Bengals, and the productive rusher adds a new element to an offense that was fifth-worst on the ground, per nF's schedule-adjusted ranks.

Diggs' addition makes for a deep Texans wide receiving corps with plenty of talented players having claims to designed targets. Instead of guessing on one of those, should we look to Mixon for shares of this Houston offense, or is the DNA of this team now too rooted in Stroud and the passing game for him to pay off his 43.0 average draft position (ADP) as the current RB14 in FanDuel's best-ball leagues?

Joe Mixon Fantasy Football Outlook

A Main Man

Based on the role we've seen from Mixon in Cincinnati in the last two seasons, he and the Texans are a stylistic match made in heaven.

The Texans did the unthinkable and made Devin Singletary a featured back last season -- even with Dameon Pierce on the roster. That's noteworthy as he's currently Mixon's primary backup. In the final eight weeks of last season, Singletary logged 66.5% of the snaps and averaged 21.8 adjusted opportunities per game. My colleague Jim Sannes' "Singledigits" nickname died in earnest by way of volume -- not efficiency. Per the NFL's NextGenStats, the South Florida Bulls alum still posted -0.09 rushing expected points added per carry (EPA/c).

In his place this season steps Mixon, who has put up consecutive top-12 efforts on a points-per-game or overall basis, showcasing his ability to stay healthy and productive in a featured role. He's averaged at least a 62.0% snap share and 22.5 adjusted opportunities per game in each of the past two years, missing just three combined games.

The only addition behind him to Pierce was Cam Akers -- a name which made several fantasy players just shudder. Pierce was given just a 34.1% snap rate last season with a returning head coach (DeMeco Ryans) and offensive coordinator (Bobby Slowik), so we can somewhat safely assume he's not going to leap into a position where there's true ambiguity in this backfield. Besides, Pierce (3.6% target share last season) is a poor pass-catcher, which means Mixon is likely your third-down "change of pace guy" anyway.

Goal-line variance is somewhat random and never fun, yet a significant amount of bad luck there would appear to be the lone way that Mixon loses significant, fantasy-relevant work in this offense. Tony Pollard's 2023 is evidence of how bad that touchdown regression can strike a featured running back in an elite passing offense, but his exceptional tale isn't reason alone to avoid Mixon in drafts.

Too Pass-Happy or Happy with the Pass?

One of Mixon's perks coming out of college with the Oklahoma Sooners was an elite passing-down profile. He caught 65 passes for 894 yards and 9 (!) touchdowns in two seasons at OU. He finished with more receiving yards in his final season as a Sooner than Mark Andrews in the same draft class.

That's translated in a significant way to the NFL. It just took the Bengals way, way, way too long to figure it out and unleash him into a three-down role with quite literally the same early-career backfield mate he had in school (Samaje Perine). In the last two seasons, Mixon has posted at least 7.4 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) per game, per NextGenStats. He's commanded at least 3.8 targets per game in each of those years.

That's another natural fit with Stroud and this passing offense, which might be looking to kick things up a notch after adding Diggs to its elite tree of targets in the offseason. Houston's -2.8% pass rate over expectation entering Week 18 a season ago was tied for 12th-lowest in the NFL, but you'd have to imagine it's going to get increasingly more difficult for Slowik to not unleash his sophomore signal-caller onto the rest of the league.

One of the most exciting prospects of Mixon's profile is the absolute monopoly he should have on the receiving work in this offense. He can still contribute efficiently even in situations where Houston is trailing or in a full-blown shootout.

The Stroud Family

Though Mixon's projected workload in Houston seems to be outstanding, he'd be on my radar even if it was just okay. Attached to one of the NFL's quickest rising passers, he's really the only safe target in fantasy drafts until we get more clarity on how the looks will be split up in the passing game.

Via NextGenStats, Stroud was second in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.2) and eighth in expected points added per drop back (0.07 EPA/db). Though hard to project this sort of career moving forward, it was as "onto the scene" as a quarterback prospect has popped in his first year since Patrick Mahomes. We are going to want pieces of this attack.

The problem is that so many could be the answer. In terms of ADP, Nico Collins is currently the leader in the clubhouse with efficiency numbers (25.8 RecYOE per game) that were from a video game in 2023. On the other hand, Tank Dell had a higher target share (26.9%) than Collins (22.8%) while seeing 6.0 downfield targets (10-plus yards) per game in the final five weeks of his season before a broken leg, though. He was "the guy" as Stroud began to emerge.

Then, there's the veteran. Stefon Diggs has produced over 1,000 receiving yards in six straight seasons with two different clubs, and Josh Allen to C.J. Stroud isn't a career-altering downgrade. He saw at least 150 targets in every season with the Buffalo Bills and still proceeded to pout his way out of town, he's probably not just cool with a tertiary workload.

If these three weren't enough, Dalton Schultz has commanded at least 85 targets and 4 touchdowns in each of his last four seasons between two clubs. Schultz is the most obvious candidate to take a step back, but he might not by way of just being open in the middle of the field.

Personally, the Texans' receiving corps is a mess I'm just not guessing on in drafts. There are alternatives at all four of these players' ADP that make enough sense to not be "guessing" unless one dramatically falls -- and they almost never do attached to Stroud. If there's one consistent place we know Houston is going to go for work, it's early-down, pass-game, and goal-line work with its running back, which we've established is going to be "Smokin' Joe".

Joe Mixon Fantasy Football Projection

Other than the fact Joe Mixon is a little older (28), has seen a modest -- but not awful -- workload of 579 touches in the past two years, and is nursing a hamstring issue believed to be minor at training camp, the former Bengals running back's ADP just seems to be a bit low entering fantasy drafts this season.

Compared to his RB14 standing on FanDuel (or RB16 on FantasyPros), FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections are listing Mixon as the expected RB12 entering this season. That's on the basis of 279.2 carries for 1,120.6 rushing yards, 36.6 catches on 47.4 targets, 287.4 receiving yards, and 11.8 combined scrimmage touchdowns when assuming a healthy, 17-game season as the projections do for all players. Wrap it altogether, and that's 230.2 projected half-PPR fantasy points.

FanDuel Sportsbook's rushing props for Mixon are interesting, too. They set his rushing prop at a pick 'em given a line of 812.5 rushing yards, and he's currently -124 to produce over 6.5 touchdowns. To eclipse his yardage line, Mixon would only have to play 12.5 games at the pace our projections expect per game. That's extremely enticing when looking at his reliable record of staying healthy through a full workload.

In an absolutely ideal world, I'm landing Mixon in an RB2 position, giving me two darts at a top-five running back. When looking at backs going above him such as De'Von Achane and Kyren Williams, there are significant workload questions due to the system or new players involved in the offense. Mixon doesn't have these concerns, and I wouldn't doubt his ability after another season where he was able to contribute efficiently on all three downs.

Due to Stroud's tremendous rookie year, this Texans offense certainly has created buzz in the fantasy football community. While there is an obsession over landing the right pass-catcher to pair with the emerging star, Joe Mixon's projected workload could easily make him the best fantasy pick on the team if none truly separate from each other, creating a weekly headache for managers who invest in the trio of wideouts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.