Is Jahan Dotson Headed for a Second-Year Breakout in 2023?

It's become popular in fantasy football circles to build teams around young wide receivers. We are seeing a handful of them being selected really high this season.

Jahan Dotson is not one of them going in the top three rounds, but he could pop for a second-year breakout.

Dotson had a rookie season that was better than most expected of him. Is it possible he's the best fantasy receiver for the Washington Commanders in 2023?

Jahan Dotson Fantasy Football Projection

(Projections via numberFire)

2023 Projected Points: 145.0
numberFire Positional Projection: WR38
2023 Projected Stats:

• 66.8 receptions
• 108.1 targets
• 816.64 receiving yards
• 5.0 receiving TDs

Jahan Dotson Fantasy Football Outlook

Dotson's Rookie Season

Dotson was taken with the 16th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The pick was a bit of a surprise to some people. He was taken ahead of receivers like Treylon Burks, George Pickens and Skyy Moore -- each of whom had a lot of buzz headed into the draft.

Dotson's profile had some potentially worrying signs. He really had only one elite season with the Penn State Nittany Lions, which was his senior season. Typically, we'd like to see a receiver break out before he's a senior and then enter the draft as an underclassman.

Dotson's profile coupled with some low expectations for Washington's offense led to most assuming Dotson would have a fairly quiet rookie campaign.

From Week 1, it was clear that Dotson was a bit underestimated. He saw only five targets in that game but scored two touchdowns. This became a theme for him in 2022.

He scored a touchdown in Week 2 and again saw just five targets. Dotson scored another touchdown in Week 4 before going down injured and missing five games. That injury is part of the reason why his overall numbers aren't super impressive.

Dotson finished the season with just 61 targets but scored seven touchdowns. That's a touchdown on fewer than every nine targets -- an absurd rate that is unsustainable for even the best receivers.

Another worrying stat for Dotson is the fact that he saw a target on just 16.4% of his routes. That ranked in the 38th percentile in the league.

However, there are some positives heading into 2023 that could lead to fantasy success.

Breakout Year Coming?

People have been optimistic about Dotson going into the new season. He should be the clear number-two receiver for the Commanders, and the offense could take a step forward.

Washington has experienced two big changes on offense heading into this season. The first one is at quarterback. Sam Howell will now be the starter after a combination of Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke held the job last year.

Howell isn't the most polished QB, but he did show promise in both his one start last season and during this preseason. He should be able to get the ball to his receivers effectively, and he's got some nice weapons to work with, including Dotson.

Another big change was at offensive coordinator. Washington named Eric Bieniemy as their OC, replacing Scott Turner. Bieniemy is known for helping to engineer the Kansas City Chiefs' offense since 2018, an attack that was the best offense in the NFL over that period.

Those two changes should give the Commanders a better passing offense in 2023, which obviously benefits Dotson. Washington had the 24th-ranked passing offense last season, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metric, so there's definitely room for improvement.

Turner seemed to be obsessed with getting Curtis Samuel the ball, going back to their days together with the Carolina Panthers. Bieniemy doesn't have the same attachment to Samuel and hopefully would prefer to get the ball downfield to Dotson instead.

Dotson did see a high average depth of target (aDOT) at 13.6 yards. That's definitely good for his fantasy outlook as it gives him a chance to make splash plays.

The injury definitely slowed down Dotson's rookie season. After missing those five games, he had just two total catches across his first three games after returning, and there's a chance he wasn't 100% healthy when he came back. That meager stretch coupled with the missed games was a big drag on his overall numbers.

Dotson flashed enough as a rookie that we should be intrigued heading into 2023, especially now that it looks like the situation around him has improved.

Where Should We Draft Jahan Dotson in Fantasy Football in 2023?

Currently, Dotson is being drafted as the WR36 and the 87th player overall, via Fantasy Pros' half-PPR ADP data.

The projections at numberFire have him as the WR38. His case is similar to the one laid out for Drake London -- an offense that will improve, playing a different scheme, and the player in his second season will play better as a result of being in the NFL for a second year.

Dotson's name has been talked about a bit lately with Terry McLaurin potentially missing a few games with a turf toe. If Terry sits, that would likely make Dotson the de facto number-one receiver for Washington early in the year.

That makes for an interesting strategy for drafts. If you select someone like Jerry Jeudy -- who's currently injured -- taking Dotson makes sense. You can get an early boost in production from Dotson while waiting for Jeudy to return to action.

Dotson fits right in the bucket of wide receivers going in his ADP range -- such as Michael Pittman Jr., Marquise Brown, and Mike Evans. They all have lots of talent, but each has questions about their offense, mostly due to the quarterback position. Dotson's is more a question of target share, but he probably belongs in this tier and could easily outscore Brown or Pittman if Howell pans out.

I'd like to have a few wide receivers on my team before I selected Dotson because he seems to be a bit boom-or-bust this season. However, if you want to take a shot on a young receiver who could break out, he is a good pick in the middle round of drafts.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.