Is C.J. Stroud Overvalued in Fantasy Football?

Riley Thomas•_riley8

30d

C.J. Stroud's rookie season with the Houston Texans couldn't have gone much better. He started his career with the most passing attempts without an interception for a rookie. The records went on as Stroud recorded the most passing yards in a game for a rookie with a whopping 470 yards. He put up the third-highest passer rating ever in a playoff game -- among all QBs, not just rookies -- at 157.2 while becoming the youngest signal-caller to win a postseason contest.

It was a season full success for the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, and it translated to fantasy football, too, as Stroud was the QB11 last season.

Now, he's looking to take the next step with +1000 odds to win the NFL MVP (tied for third-shortest). FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds also have Stroud (+750) narrowly behind Patrick Mahomes (+700) to lead the league in passing yards.

As an MVP contender entering 2024, Stroud potentially holds exceptional fantasy football value. Let's check out the second-year signal-caller's outlook and projections for the 2024 fantasy football season.

C.J. Stroud Fantasy Football Outlook

Already One of the League's Best

Stroud earned glowing reviews across the board for a memorable rookie season. He checked the boxes in various advanced metrics, as well; this included 0.07 expected points added per drop back (EPA/DB) -- which was the eighth-best mark among qualifying starters.

As mentioned, the fantasy numbers were there, as well, as Stroud was the QB11 on the year.

Accumulating yardage isn't much of a concern after Stroud totaled the eighth-most passing yards and the second-most yards per passing attempt among qualifying starters in 2023. Scoring touchdowns is where Stroud could really unleash his fantasy potential as he had 23 passing touchdowns in 2023, tied for just the 13th-most.

Cashing in on scoring opportunities hinges -- in part -- on the unit as a whole, and Houston's O was still rather mediocre with the 13th-most points per game (PPG) and 15th-most yards per game last season. While there's little doubt surrounding Stroud's skill level, will the Texans' offense be good enough in 2024 for the second-year QB to take the next step as a fantasy asset?

How Will Houston's Offense Fare?

Before looking at Stroud's ADP and fantasy projection for 2024, let's look at his surrounding pieces on offense. The Texans strengthened their skill position players this offseason by making one major addition -- Stefon Diggs.

Houston acquired the four-time Pro Bowl receiver via trade with the Buffalo Bills. Diggs should mostly be viewed as a positive addition as he's got five straight seasons of at least 1,100 receiving yards. However, there could be some questions about the fit, especially after a scout in the Athlon Sports 2024 NFL Preview magazine stated Diggs could be "addition by subtraction" for the Bills. The scout went on to label Diggs a "diva."

The comments generate some legit concerns, but we can't ignore the potential of a unit made up of Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell.

Diggs has finished as a top-10 fantasy wideout in four straight seasons -- including two top-four finishes. Collins had the ninth-most half-PPR fantasy points in 2023 while recording a career-high 1,297 receiving yards and league-high 25.8 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE). Dell showed a lot of promise in his rookie season with 709 yards in 11 appearances and 8 starts prior to getting injured.

This should be one of the NFL's best receiving units, potentially leading to even more fantasy points for Stroud.

The backfield also made a change with Devin Singletary joining the New York Giants while Houston traded for Joe Mixon. This could be considered a downgrade when you compare Singletary's 1.7 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) versus Mixon's 0.3 clip from the 2023 season. The difference is likely minor as Mixon posted 1.4 yards after contact per attempt, compared to Singletary's 1.6.

The Texans had one of the league's worst rushing attacks in 2023 with the fourth-fewest rushing yards per attempt. Don't expect this to change much with Mixon becoming the new top back. Houston will probably keep leaning on their passing game, mirroring last season's average of the eighth-fewest rushing attempts per game.

numberFire's power rankings for the upcoming 2024 season also give good insight about what to expect from this unit. The Texans are projected to have the 12th-best offense, but the passing attack is in a much more favorable light with the 5th-best rating. As expected, the run game will likely drag down this unit as it owns the fifth-worst rating.

Assuming Stroud doesn't have a major regression, this unit shouldn't be far off from last season, and the passing game has a chance to improve with one year of experience under Stroud's belt paired with the exciting addition of Diggs.

C.J. Stroud Fantasy Football Projection

FantasyPros' ADP has Stroud as the fifth QB off of the board. That means the fantasy community has very high expectations for the second-year signal-caller.

As previously mentioned, Stroud had the 11th-most fantasy points at his position in 2023. That doesn't align with his QB5 ADP, so the market might be overvaluing him.

Stroud's numbers have to improve in his second season or the value is simply not there -- point blank period -- especially with Stroud not offering much as a runner (167 rushing yards in 2023).

numberFire's fantasy football projections have Stroud finishing with the most passing yards at 4,754. Similar to last season, the touchdowns could be lacking, with Stroud carrying a forecasted 29.54 total (seventh-most).

These projections assume that Stroud will play in 17 games. He participated in 15 contests in 2023, so let's take the averages to make a suitable comp.

numberFire's projections would put the Ohio State product at about 279.6 passing yards and 1.7 passing touchdowns per game. Each mark isn't that far above 2023's averages of 273.9 yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns.

Rushing upside probably won't change, either, as numberFire's projections have Stroud at 11.1 rushing yards per game, compared to 11.3 last season.

All in all, numberFire has Stroud pretty much in line with his ADP with the QB6.

However, there isn't much room for error here with Stroud at his current ADP. Houston's passing game should improve with Diggs in the fold, but will it equate to more passing touchdowns? Completing darts in the end zone will likely decide if Stroud can deliever on his QB5 ADP.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.