Illinois State vs Missouri State Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for MVC Tournament

The No. 12 seed Missouri State Bears (9-22, 2-18 MVC) will play in the MVC tournament against the No. 5 seed Illinois State Redbirds (18-13, 10-10 MVC) on Thursday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Illinois State vs. Missouri State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Thursday, March 6, 2025
• Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN+
• Location: St. Louis, Missouri
• Arena: Enterprise Center

Illinois State vs. Missouri State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Illinois State win (71.5%)

Before you bet on Thursday's Illinois State-Missouri State spread (Illinois State -5.5) or total (132.5 points), take a look at the betting insights and trends below.

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Illinois State vs. Missouri State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Illinois State has compiled a 17-13-0 ATS record so far this year.
• Missouri State has won 17 games against the spread this year, while failing to cover 12 times.
• Illinois State (3-6) covers a lower percentage of games when it is favored by 5.5 points or more this season (33.3%) than Missouri State (8-3) does as a 5.5+-point underdog (72.7%).
• The Redbirds have covered the spread in a lower percentage of their home games than road games. They have covered seven times in 15 games at home, and they've covered eight times in 12 games when playing on the road.
• The Bears have performed better against the spread on the road (8-5-0) than at home (7-6-0) this year.
• Against the spread, in conference play, Illinois State is 9-11-0 this year.
• Against the spread in MVC games, Missouri State is 10-10-0 this year.

Illinois State vs. Missouri State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Illinois State has come away with nine wins in the 15 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• This season, the Redbirds have come away with a win seven times in nine chances when named as a favorite of at least -225 or shorter on the moneyline.
• Missouri State has won four of the 21 games it was the underdog on the moneyline this season (19%).
• The Bears have a 1-10 record (winning just 9.1% of their games) when they have played as a moneyline underdog of +180 or longer.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Illinois State has a 69.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Illinois State vs. Missouri State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Illinois State has a +115 scoring differential, topping opponents by 3.7 points per game. It is putting up 76.1 points per game to rank 116th in college basketball and is allowing 72.4 per outing to rank 194th in college basketball.
• Illinois State's leading scorer, Chase Walker, ranks 254th in the nation scoring 15.1 points per game.
• Missouri State is being outscored by 2.5 points per game, with a -77 scoring differential overall. It puts up 68.4 points per game (315th in college basketball), and allows 70.9 per outing (148th in college basketball).
• Dez White paces Missouri State, recording 14.3 points per game (340th in college basketball).
• The Redbirds are 306th in the nation at 29.7 rebounds per game. That's 1.7 more than the 28.0 their opponents average.
• Walker is 318th in college basketball action with six rebounds per game to lead the Redbirds.
• The Bears average 29.5 rebounds per game (317th in college basketball) while allowing 27.4 per contest to opponents. They outrebound opponents by 2.1 boards per game.
• Michael Osei-Bonsu averages 7.5 rebounds per game (105th in college basketball) to lead the Bears.
• Illinois State ranks 14th in college basketball with 105.4 points scored per 100 possessions, and 338th in college basketball defensively with 100.3 points conceded per 100 possessions.
• The Bears' 92.3 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 279th in college basketball, and the 95.7 points they allow per 100 possessions rank 248th in college basketball.

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