How High Is Garrett Wilson's Upside in Fantasy Football?

Garrett Wilson was circled ad nauseam as a breakout candidate for the 2023 season. It was all lining up. Wilson was the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year while the New York Jets added Aaron Rodgers under center -- one of the best quarterback talents in the history of the game.

However, Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury after only one passing attempt in Week 1. Wilson's fantasy value never recovered as he finished as WR31 -- 12 spots behind his WR19 finish from 2022. To make matters worse, Wilson was carrying a WR9 and 18th overall average draft position (ADP) in half-point per reception (PPR) leagues in 2023 drafts, via FantasyPros.

Wilson will get another chance with Rodgers at the helm in 2024. With the veteran QB back in action, Wilson's ADP is ever lower than last season as WR7 and 12th overall. Will fantasy managers be stung by the Jets' leading wideout once again, or will this finally be the season when Wilson becomes one of football's best fantasy receivers?

Garrett Wilson Fantasy Football Outlook

Same Old, Same Old in NYC

Having even a small sample size of Wilson with Rodgers would have provided a better idea of where we should draft the third-year wideout. However, we have virtually nothing as Rodgers attempted one pass in 2023.

All we can do is look at how Wilson performed with a backup QB. That was mostly Zach Wilson, who played in 12 of 17 games. Wilson posted -0.33 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db), per NFL's Next Gen Stats. Trevor Siemian (-0.46 EPA/db) and Tim Boyle (-0.49 EPA/db) didn't provide any relief for the offense in their handful of appearances, either.

Just like in his rookie season, Wilson had to deal with some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL. He still managed to record 1,042 yards, and a heavy workload was present. Wilson finished with the fourth-most targets, seventh-highest target share, the sixth-highest snap share, and most routes run among his position, via PlayerProfiler.

Finishing 12 spots behind 2022's fantasy positional mark doesn't come off as the best. However, Wilson was barely behind his rookie year at 9.7 fantasy points per game compared to 10.2 in 2022.

It was the same old story in New York. The offense produced the fourth-fewest points per game (PPG) and second-fewest yards per contest in 2023. That doesn't suggest many scoring chances for Wilson -- as seen in his three touchdowns from last season.

Until Wilson actually gets some solid play from his signal-caller, he can only produce so many points for fantasy football. Fortunately, Rodgers is back, meaning Wilson's ceiling has a chance.

More Tuddies On the Menu

Yes, Rodgers is 40 years old and is coming off a major Achilles injury. Maybe he won't get back to producing like an MVP; in fact, it's highly unlikely. Father Time will eventually catch up to Rodgers, and a major injury only adds fuel to the fire.

Still, this version of Rodgers is probably a lot better than Zach Wilson (yes, he's still catching strays). Garrett Wilson's layered on the praise during the offseason, "With Aaron, everything's ... you can do it. And that's how football should be played when you can do it. So it's exciting for me and for all the receivers in the room, the tight ends, we all feel like we can really just go out there and play and trust our eyes, we don't have to overthink anything."

He's not shy about showing his joy for having a serviceable QB. A joint practice with the Carolina Panthers this week proved Wilson has reason to be excited, scoring two touchdowns.

Rodgers' last full season in 2022 doesn't bode much confidence for high fantasy production from Wilson, though. The Green Bay Packers' top wideouts were Allen Lazard as WR33 while Christian Watson finished as WR35. However, neither receiver is considered a top target, not even mentioning the potential Wilson has to become one of the best wideouts in the NFL.

Prior to 2022 is a better example of how a receiver can benefit from Rodgers slinging the ball. Davante Adams was WR3 in 2021, WR1 in 2020, WR24 in 2019 due to injuries, and WR3 in 2018. This is the level that Wilson is chasing -- a consistently elite wideout that becomes Rodgers' best friend.

We know the workload will be there, and Wilson is plenty capable of taking on a ton of targets. His usage has a decent chance of taking a dip with Mike Williams joining the receiving group, but Williams come off an ACL injury so some rust could be present.

Positive touchdown regression is the major talking point for Wilson's fantasy season. He has only seven combined touchdowns over two seasons in the league. Going back to Adams' numbers with Rodgers, he totaled double-digit touchdowns in five of six seasons between 2016 to 2021.

Rodgers has also thrown for at least 25 passing touchdowns in five straight seasons (not counting 2023). For comparison, the Jets had only 15 passing touchdowns in 2022 followed by 11 last year.

Wilson still easily led New York in red zone target share last season at 33.3%; the next-best mark was held by Tyler Conklin at 15.8%. Last year also marked back-to-back seasons with Wilson touting the ninth-most red zone targets among his position.

Will he score enough to deliver on his WR7 ADP, though?

Garrett Wilson Fantasy Football Projection

FanDuel Research's season-long projections are expressing the same thoughts concerning Wilson's upcoming season. His forecasted per-game averages of 9.4 targets, 6.2 receptions, and 70.9 receiving yards aren't too off of last season's averages of 9.9 targets, 5.6 catches, and 61.3 receiving yards per game.

The jump in receiving yards is the only notable change. The projections expect Wilson to increase his yards per catch from 11.0 to 11.5 paired with about 10 more receptions on the season.

Wilson still feels capable of more when it comes to generating big plays, for he racked up 13.3 yards per catch in 2022. Plus, we should expect the Jets to increase their passing yards per attempt after posting a measly 4.9 last season (second-lowest).

From 2018 to 2022, Rodgers posted the fourth-highest deep passing grade (98.3), per Pro Football Focus (PFF). He's also produced at least 6.8 yards per passing attempt in seven consecutive seasons (once again excluding 2023).

Going back to positive touchdown regression, projections have Wilson at 0.5 touchdowns per game compared to 0.2 in his last two seasons.

Similar to 2023, everything is there for Wilson to become one of the best receivers across fantasy football. Perhaps even entering top-five territory if he can get back to a similar yards-per-catch rate to 2022, which is possible considering Rodgers' deep balls.

The big unknown will be Rodgers' health. If he can even produce like 2022, Wilson's fantasy stock is in the green.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.