How Do We Handle the Chargers in Fantasy Football in 2024?
The Los Angeles Chargers have consistently drawn fantasy football attention over the last handful of seasons thanks to having one of the game's most talented quarterbacks: Justin Herbert.
However, Herbert's surrounding cast looks completely different following the departures of Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen. Since finishing as QB2 in 2021, Herbert has failed to crack the top 10 in back-to-back seasons.
The Chargers are going to be a difficult team to tackle across the board in fantasy drafts.
Will Herbert have a high ceiling with a downgraded supporting cast? Will any skill position players break out far above their ADP? The value is certainly there as all of Los Angeles' running backs and wide receivers are carrying ADPs of over 40, per FantasyPros.
L.A. could be viewed as a crapshoot on most fantasy football radars, but let's take some time with each position group, circling the best players to take. What should we do with the Chargers in season-long fantasy football?
Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Outlook
Chargers QBs Fantasy Outlook
Let's start with the big name that will be selected in most drafts -- Justin Herbert. After finishing as QB17 last season, Herbert's ADP is QB15 at FantasyPros.
Last year's fall in production was partially due to injury as Herbert missed the final four games of the season from a fractured finger.
He still finished with the 10th-most fantasy points per game among qualifying QBs. This was actually an improvement compared to the 15th-most fantasy points per game at his position in 2022. Advanced stats put Herbert roughly around the same standing as he posted the 14th-most expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) in 2023, per NextGenStats.
While Herbert still possesses supreme talent, don't expect him to tap back into 2021's fantasy numbers. This is a much different team, especially with coach Jim Harbaugh taking over.
numberFire's fantasy football projections have Herbert in line with his ADP of QB15. Projections are predicting a similar workload for Herbert at 34.0 passing attempts per game compared to 35.0 in 2023. The same can be said for his yardage at a forecasted 242.3 passing yards per game versus 241.1 last season.
We also can't overlook that Harbaugh will likely lay out a more run-heavy offense, increasing last season's 25.4 carries per game (ninth-fewest). Still, there are legit questions surrounding the talent of the halfbacks. Herbert will likely remain at the forefront of the offense and is projected to finish in line with his QB15 ADP.
Chargers RBs Fantasy Outlook
We mentioned the running back room potentially lacking. Let's dive into how this group could shake out.
Ekeler is now with the Washington Commanders. He consistently demanded fantasy attention due to his receiving ability, finishing as a top-two back in 2021 and 2022.
This backfield is expected to be a committee approach in 2024. L.A. brought in two free agents from the Baltimore Ravens, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. Plus, the Chargers used a 2024 sixth-round pick on Kimani Vidal.
Edwards has the lowest ADP as RB41, followed by Dobbins at RB48 and Vidal holding RB49. This is going to be a very difficult group to figure out.
Starting with the expected RB1, Edwards has mostly been a streamer option throughout his career as he's cracked the top 40 fantasy RBs only twice over five seasons. He comes off a career-best finish as RB20 in 2023, finishing well above his ADP of RB61.
Dobbins has simply struggled to stay on the field. Since entering the league in 2020, he has played in at least eight games in only two seasons. His 2020 campaign is the only noteworthy finish as RB21.
Vidal is the dark horse to make noise. The rookie flourished at Troy, totaling 1,056 yards after contact paired with 94 missed tackles forced in 2023. Both marks led the running back class in the 2024 NFL Draft. He's an all-around back with good strength, speed, and ability as a receiver.
numberFire's projections -- which assumes each player participates in all 17 games -- have Edwards logging 192 carries to Dobbins' 114. Both backs are also expected to be under 15 total receptions. Vidal, likely due to his status as a rookie, isn't even listed on the projections.
According to numberFire, Edwards is projected to be RB35 -- over the RB41 ADP. Dobbins is far behind as RB50 compared to his RB48 ADP.
While this debate is sure to cause one-too-many headaches, it's worth selecting one of these backs late in season-long drafts. We know the Chargers are going to run the ball under Harbaugh. With Michigan, Harbaugh loved to pound the rock on the goal line, leading to a lot of rushing touchdowns. Simply take Blake Corum's 27 touchdowns from 2023 as a prime example.
This will likely be a split group from start to finish, but Edwards and Vidal are standing out as the best picks. I simply cannot trust Dobbins' health. Meanwhile, Edwards has been listed as the early RB1, but Vidal's impressive skillset is worth monitoring as a breakout candidate.
Chargers WRs Fantasy Outlook
Along with the tailbacks, Herbert's wide receivers are full of new faces. There are four players worth keeping an eye on: Ladd McConkey, Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and D.J. Chark.
McConkey was drafted in the second round, so we don't have any data from 2023. Palmer was the only wideout posting decent stats last season as Johnston was WR75 and Chark finished at WR58. Over 10 games played, Palmer posted the 49th-most fantasy points per game among qualifying receivers. He was still nothing more than a streamer, providing two top-10 weekly finishes in Week 7 and Week 15.
This room could arguably be more difficult to unravel than the running backs. McConkey will probably be the safest pick. He's a talented rookie with breakout potential. Scouting reports mostly gave positive reviews, highlighting his savvy route-running and impressive speed.
McConkey is touting the lowest ADP among the Chargers' wideouts as WR42. numberFire's projections also have the rookie as WR44.
Palmer isn't far behind the first-year player, carrying a WR46 projection compared to his WR56 ADP. He is being forecasted with 69 receptions and 834 receiving yards compared to McConkey's 70 receptions and 843 yards.
The top two options are as clear as day, and Palmer holds the best value with his projection 10 spots above FantasyPros' ADP. Plus, we know Palmer has produced with Herbert as his QB. Meanwhile, McConkey is an inexperienced rookie, making him a bit more unpredictable.
Projections have Johnston (WR72) and Chark (WR89) far behind the top two options. Johnston is on track to finish behind his WR66 ADP, and Chark is barely garnering attention with a WR95 ADP.
Chargers TEs Fantasy Outlook
Let me guess, another group that is expected to be evenly split across the board? You've got that right. Hayden Hurst (TE34), Donald Parham Jr. (TE39), and Will Dissly (TE45) are all close in ADPs.
Since Herbert's rookie season in 2020, Los Angeles has had a top-15 fantasy tight end in three of four seasons. Last year was the only exception with Gerald Everett finishing as TE24.
Dissly has reached 300 receiving yards in only one of his six seasons. He also has the lowest projected finish at TE39.
Hurst is probably the most intriguing option. He was TE9 in 2020 and TE22 in 2022. His projection as TE29 is also five spots above his ADP.
Parham is the "sleeper" to take over this group as the fifth-year target comes off a career-high 285 receiving yards. Additionally, he's the only piece that has been on the receiving end of Herbert's targets.
Overall, this tight end group likely won't produce anything more than streaming options. Hurst seems to hold the highest potential for a top-20 finish among tight ends.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.