How Can Trevor Lawrence Take the Next Step in Fantasy Football?

Expectations can be fickle.

Trevor Lawrence has not had a poor career as the Jacksonville Jaguars' signal-caller, but some might say the former top overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft hasn't quite lived up to his billing as a proverbial "prince who was promised".

Lawrence has just one playoff appearance (and win) since taking over, but those are also the Jags' only such appearances and wins since 2018. He's been much more of a letdown for dynasty fantasy football managers or yearly drafters, who have seen Lawrence finish as the QB22, QB8, and QB13 in three seasons to this stage. He has one fewer top-five fantasy finish than Geno Smith and Jordan Love in just this period.

As a result, Lawrence is dirt cheap in FanDuel best-ball drafts this year. He's going off the board, on average, as the QB15 with an overall average draft position (ADP) of 180.2.

Should we relegate the former Clemson Tigers star to fantasy irrelevance in his current situation, or is 2024 a year where Lawrence returns to the fantasy's top-10 quarterbacks as an ideal late-round quarterback selection?

Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Football Outlook

What's Been the Holdup?

Fantasy quarterbacks either become top-five options through absurd efficiency or rushing upside, and it appears it'll likely have to be the former for T-Law.

An anecdotal look at Lawrence doesn't suggest horrible mobility, but in addition to a 40-yard dash time in the 57th percentile of combine prospects (per PlayerProfiler), he's yet to eclipse 350 rushing yards or 5 rushing touchdowns in an individual season. The scores are real and do help a bit; he was eighth among qualifying quarterbacks in red zone rushing share on his respective team (22.6%). While he's not quite as immobile as a Jared Goff or Kirk Cousins, he's still likely only into the tier above that as a rushing quarterback.

It's likely he'll need to do the majority of work through the air. Lawrence's baseline efficiency as a passer (7.1 YPA) actually beat out Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert last season, and neither of them topped 400 rushing yards in comparison to Trevor's 339 yards on the ground. Mahomes didn't even post a rushing score. While they were fantasy football disappointments because of their ADP, neither would have crippled your fantasy season as the QB8 off the board.

So, how did Lawrence ultimately fall so far behind and into afterthought range this season? Turnovers.

Lawrence had the most turnovers in the NFL last season (21), and that continued a trend where he has the most turnovers in the NFL from any QB in his three years of action (60). Turnovers are costly in fantasy football because of the obvious, which is usually a couple of negative points for each one. However, the hidden element to turnovers are losing possessions and total points, which is how T-Law plummets down the rankings at -0.09 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db). That was 22nd in the NFL behind both Las Vegas Raiders quarterbacks that you're not drafting in fantasy this year, Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew.

The foundational parts for Lawrence's success at this ADP are there. He's a productive passer with intriguing enough red zone work with his legs to score a few times. However, he's got to take better care of the ball to realize upside any higher than his QB8 season from 2022, and that's a correctable measure when there is an element of variance or luck to turnovers from an entire offensive unit.

Supporting Parts: Better, Worse, or the Same?

The Jags saw plenty of player movement through free agency and the NFL Draft on both sides of the ball, so the 2024 team might not be that recognizable when compared to its predecessor.

In free agency, Jacksonville saw Calvin Ridley bolt for the Tennessee Titans, but they added Gabriel Davis from the Buffalo Bills in his stead. Though you might be inclined to call this a downgrade, Ridley posted 0.27 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP) per target in a down season with Jacksonville when Davis posted 0.39 in an injury-ridden 2023 campaign with Buffalo.

Plus, the Jags added Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the draft when retaining Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. By and large, one of the deeper wideout rooms in the league stayed pretty deep. Plus, Jacksonville is bringing back its duo of Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby at tailback.

However, the most impactful addition to the Jags' offense might be another former Buffalo contributor -- center Mitch Morse. Jacksonville had the sixth-worst offensive line in the NFL last year, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Adding Morse's 74.0 PFF grade in pass blocking last season could be a gigantic upgrade and help curb Lawrence's turnover issues when Cam Robinson and Brandon Scherff are two solid returning pieces up front.

Lawrence was among the first 10 quarterbacks taken in fantasy football last season off a QB8 season due to his bevy of weapons. That really hasn't changed, and one could argue he's in an even stronger position now when factoring in upgrades on the offensive line. Returning to the same offensive system, I'd expect an overall improvement from T-Law this season.

Pistol "Pede"

Not every playcaller wants to play fast or throw the ball. The aforementioned Herbert is tumbling down draft boards in anticipation of his coach, Jim Harbaugh, bringing a rush rate similar to his 59.6% rate with the Michigan Wolverines last season in college (17th of 133 FBS schools). It's crucial for fantasy purposes that Lawrence will have the duo of Doug Pederson, entering his third year as head coach, and playcaller Press Taylor both back for the 2024 campaign.

Entering a wonky Week 18 a year ago, the Jaguars were 10th in adjusted pace and 4th in pass rate over expectation, per FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula. They understand the value of playing quickly and passing more, which should help the Jaguars encounter a few shootouts along the way. numberFire's 14th-best schedule-adjusted defense from a year ago has a pair of new starters, but it still shouldn't be a lockdown unit where Pederson and Taylor believe they can pull the parachute on their scoring unit.

When you look at Lawrence's ADP neighbors and competitors, it's incredibly appealing to put your trust in Pederson, who has eclipsed seven wins in all but one of his seven seasons as an NFL coach. He's also made the playoffs in four of seven years. There's not really a path where the bottom falls out from Lawrence and this offense, which isn't the case for Herbert (in his Harbaugh era) or rookies Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels -- both of whom will enter totally brand new situations with no established offensive coordinator or head coach.

Given how we remember things ending with the Philadelphia Eagles, one of the research elements I wanted to examine was whether or not Pederson was an asset to Lawrence or if there was a potential that Jacksonville collapsed as the Eagles did to produce a 4-11-1 season back in 2020. Upon review, the coach's tendency to play fast, lean on the pass, and routinely stay competitive on both sides of the ball are definitely an argument in T-Law's favor.

Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Football Projection

Overall, numberFire's season-long fantasy football projections approve a selection of Lawrence if the 15th quarterback off the board is the spot you get him.

Projecting all players for a healthy, 17-game season, they rank Lawrence as the projected QB14, expecting 4,183.3 passing yards, 26.1 touchdowns, 11.9 interceptions, 307.7 rushing yards, and 3.2 rushing touchdowns from Jacksonville's signal-caller. That all wraps into 289.2 fantasy points with standard QB scoring.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL passing props, Lawrence is +2000 (4.8% implied) to lead the league in passing yards with a passing yards prop of 3,775.5 yards at a pick 'em. His passing TD prop sits at 21.5 with -118 odds leaning toward the over. For most players, that's baking injury into the equation, but it's worth noting the durable signal-caller has missed just one game in three years. All of those markets could produce extreme value, per numberFire's projection, if that trend holds.

Upon review, Lawrence's preliminary passing efficiency meets the requisite standard -- especially considering his friendly offensive conditions set up by the coaching staff. In order to succeed in fantasy football, he'll really just need to cut down on the turnovers, which should allow Jacksonville to score as often as their offensive stats would otherwise suggest. That's an achievable goal for a quarterback who also gets a decent amount of chances to score with his legs in the red zone.

While many are falling head over heels in this tier of QBs for Herbert's name value or the rookie QBs with seemingly limitless upside, the sneaky veteran might be the best selection of all if you wait on the position in one-QB formats or want a high-upside second option in Superflex leagues.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.