NZ - Wanganui - Race 5

Thoroughbred

16 Runners

6.7f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

22.8K

VIEW

Verdict

AMUSEMENT (8) led all the way to score fresh up at Taupo when clearing the maiden ranks, and her 2 starts since then have been in good fields at Ellerslie, where she has held her own. Racing in an anti-clockwise direction will help her here, and she will be hard to hold out. CASINO (4) is a very progressive mare who has been in top form over the sprint trips. She is third up over 6 ¾f, and should go close to taking this out. LEINSTER (3) was a tough winner by a neck at New Plymouth in his penultimate start, and then raced wide but still fought on to finish fifth at Waverley last time out. If he can slot in closer to the fence this time, then he would not be a shock winner here. GREENWICH (1) was not far away, fresh up in a good field at Ellerslie, and then was even better when finishing second by a neck at New Plymouth just over 3 weeks ago. With the right run, he can go one better. SEXY AND I MOET (6) should be ready to show some form third up from a spell. Don't risk her.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Last start from last on the turn 7th of 14 at Ellerslie on November 4 over 7f, slow going 3 len behind Mad Max carrying 126lbs at $7.20. The run before that crossed from a wide gate to lead but couldn't hold on when 5th of 16 at Ellerslie on October 18 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Summerston with 126lbs at $23.20. Finds a nice race and can turn things around. 1st Pick 8 Amusement Jockey: Lynsey Satherley Trainer: Darryn & Briar Weatherley J: Lynsey Satherley T: Darryn & Briar Weatherley	52	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Last start from last on the turn 7th of 14 at Ellerslie on November 4 over 7f, slow going 3 len behind Mad Max carrying 126lbs at $7.20. The run before that crossed from a wide gate to lead but couldn't hold on when 5th of 16 at Ellerslie on October 18 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Summerston with 126lbs at $23.20. Finds a nice race and can turn things around.
4	Third-up today. First-up favourite, won by 1.75 len at Waverley October 19 over 6f on a soft track defeating Hoorah Henry carrying 125lbs at $2.50. Last start 2nd of 10 at Waverley on November 14 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.8 len behind Toronto with 126lbs at $2.30. Will go well again. 2nd Pick 4 Casino Jockey: Kate Hercock Trainer: Bryce Newman J: Kate Hercock T: Bryce Newman	63	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Third-up today. First-up favourite, won by 1.75 len at Waverley October 19 over 6f on a soft track defeating Hoorah Henry carrying 125lbs at $2.50. Last start 2nd of 10 at Waverley on November 14 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.8 len behind Toronto with 126lbs at $2.30. Will go well again.
3	Most recently 5th of 10 at Waverley on November 14 over 6f, on a slow track, 3 len behind Toronto with 131lbs at $13.20. The run before that won by a long-neck at New Plymouth Raceway November 5 over 6f defeating Greenwich carrying 127lbs at $10.80. Key runner who is expected to be in the finish. 3rd Pick 3 Leinster Jockey: Amber Riddell Trainer: Sam Lennox J: Amber Riddell T: Sam Lennox	68	-	-	-	6%	18/1
Analysis Most recently 5th of 10 at Waverley on November 14 over 6f, on a slow track, 3 len behind Toronto with 131lbs at $13.20. The run before that won by a long-neck at New Plymouth Raceway November 5 over 6f defeating Greenwich carrying 127lbs at $10.80. Key runner who is expected to be in the finish.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Yielding

A rain-soaked turf condition often producing a slick or heavy course and slower finish times.

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.