NZ - Te Rapa - Race 8

Thoroughbred

22 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 6

22.5K

VIEW

Verdict

CIRCUS TRIX (9) took on the top fillies races last season. Charged home to just miss when fresh here then trailed and angled wide, kicking clear but grabbed final stride here last time. Fitter now and won only start 3rd-up. Peaks here. TOWERING VISION (3) weaved a path through them from the rear to score over 1m at Ellerslie then ran on from the rear for 4th in a similar race last time. Yet to miss a place in 3 starts this track including a win. Danger. ROB'S MISTAKE (13) got back over 7 ½f at Ellerslie but cut the corner and charge through a gap to score 1st-up then camped on the speed and fought on well last time. Respect from the nice draw. TYPHOON LUCY (15) racing very well, running on strongly from midfield in both starts after a spell. Tough draw but did win her maiden from the outside gate. FAIRY DREAM (3) won G3 Desert Gold over 1m last season coming wide from midfield to grab Waimea Bay. Something seemed amiss last start but stable pressing on a good sign. Improver.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
9	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up made ground from midfield, 2nd of 12 at this track on September 25 over 7f, 0.7 len behind Roc All Night carrying 123lbs at $13.10. Second run from a spell 2nd of 12 at this track on October 26 over 7 ½f, 0.1 len behind Bella's Boy with 123lbs at $9.70. Hard to beat. 1st Pick 9 Circus Trix Jockey: Kelly Myers Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Kelly Myers T: Stephen Marsh	105	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up made ground from midfield, 2nd of 12 at this track on September 25 over 7f, 0.7 len behind Roc All Night carrying 123lbs at $13.10. Second run from a spell 2nd of 12 at this track on October 26 over 7 ½f, 0.1 len behind Bella's Boy with 123lbs at $9.70. Hard to beat.
12	Second run back. First-up after six months ran on from midfield and won by a long-neck at Ellerslie on October 17 over 7f in soft going defeating Savvy Donna with 129lbs at $5.20. Previously second-up won by 2.75 len at Ruakaka on January 6 over 1m on a soft track defeating Singe with 122lbs at $2.60. The one they have to beat. 2nd Pick 12 Waimea Bay Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Roger James & Robert Wellwood J: Non Runner T: Roger James & Robert Wellwood	175	-	-	-	1%	1000/1
Analysis Second run back. First-up after six months ran on from midfield and won by a long-neck at Ellerslie on October 17 over 7f in soft going defeating Savvy Donna with 129lbs at $5.20. Previously second-up won by 2.75 len at Ruakaka on January 6 over 1m on a soft track defeating Singe with 122lbs at $2.60. The one they have to beat.
3	Racing well recently. Last start 4th of 12 at Ellerslie on October 17 over 1m, slow going 2.5 len behind Free Bird with 132lbs at $5.50. The race before that was well back until straightening, raced back then made ground from the turn, won by 0.7 len at Ellerslie on September 19 over 1m on a soft track defeating Lollapalooza carrying 127lbs at $5.50. Tough to beat on best form. 3rd Pick 3 Towering Vision Jockey: Hayley Hassman Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Hayley Hassman T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	242	-	-	-	12%	15/2
Analysis Racing well recently. Last start 4th of 12 at Ellerslie on October 17 over 1m, slow going 2.5 len behind Free Bird with 132lbs at $5.50. The race before that was well back until straightening, raced back then made ground from the turn, won by 0.7 len at Ellerslie on September 19 over 1m on a soft track defeating Lollapalooza carrying 127lbs at $5.50. Tough to beat on best form.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.

Objection

Claim of foul lodged by a jockey for perceived dangerous or illegal riding by a rival.

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.