NZ - Te Rapa - Race 6

Thoroughbred

16 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 8

23.2K

VIEW

Verdict

BORN TO BE ROYAL (10) fought on bravely fresh up here just over 3 weeks ago, and she will enjoy stepping up an extra ½f. She has been good enough to be placed at G2 level twice in her career, and with natural improvement second up, she is the one to beat. ELLE MCFAB (13) was disappointing at Te Aroha 10 days ago, and may just be better off being kept to racing in this direction. She is good enough to take this out, so give her another chance. SUBIACO (5) won as the favourite at Cambridge-synthetic in his penultimate start, and then got too far back in his next start there. He is better than that, and can make amends. Each way value. ELIUD (2) was a beaten favourite at Hastings last start on a track that was probably too testing this early into his prep. He carries 6lbs less here, and should be that much fitter. Stick with him. BELLA'S BOY (1) has been holding his form well enough through a winter campaign, and he was just out bobbed here last start. He deserves a winning turn.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
10	Second run back. First-up after six months 4th of 12 at this track on August 22 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Halo's Fire carrying 126lbs at $12.10. Previously second-up 2nd of 14 at Matamata on December 19 over 1m, slow going long-neck behind Los Santos with 122lbs at $4.50. Strips fitter and a bold showing is expected. 1st Pick 10 Born To Be Royal Jockey: Wiremu Pinn Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Wiremu Pinn T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	155	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Second run back. First-up after six months 4th of 12 at this track on August 22 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Halo's Fire carrying 126lbs at $12.10. Previously second-up 2nd of 14 at Matamata on December 19 over 1m, slow going long-neck behind Los Santos with 122lbs at $4.50. Strips fitter and a bold showing is expected.
13	Most recently raced on the pace before fading 12th of 14 at Te Aroha on September 3 over 7f, on heavy track, 7 len behind Ocean Road with 126lbs at $6.40. Before that crossed from a wide gate to settle just off the pace but gave ground when 4th of 13 at this track on August 8 over 1m, on heavy track, 3 len behind Vito with 126lbs at $6.40. One of the better chances. 2nd Pick 13 Elle Mcfab Jockey: Warren Kennedy Trainer: David Greene J: Warren Kennedy T: David Greene	104	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Most recently raced on the pace before fading 12th of 14 at Te Aroha on September 3 over 7f, on heavy track, 7 len behind Ocean Road with 126lbs at $6.40. Before that crossed from a wide gate to settle just off the pace but gave ground when 4th of 13 at this track on August 8 over 1m, on heavy track, 3 len behind Vito with 126lbs at $6.40. One of the better chances.
5	At the latest run settled back and ran on when 8th of 10 at Cambridge Synthetic on August 19 over 7 ¾f, 4.5 len behind Kasukedo with 120lbs at $4.70. Before that won by 0.8 len at Cambridge Synthetic on August 7 over 7 ¾f defeating Kasukedo with 121lbs at $3.80. Great chance to atone. 3rd Pick 5 Subiaco Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Peter & Shaun Mckay J: Non Runner T: Peter & Shaun Mckay	115	-	-	-	7%	15/1
Analysis At the latest run settled back and ran on when 8th of 10 at Cambridge Synthetic on August 19 over 7 ¾f, 4.5 len behind Kasukedo with 120lbs at $4.70. Before that won by 0.8 len at Cambridge Synthetic on August 7 over 7 ¾f defeating Kasukedo with 121lbs at $3.80. Great chance to atone.

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