NZ - Te Rapa - Race 5

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

10.4f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 7

10.6K

VIEW

Verdict

VENDABELLE (14) let down strongly when winning her maiden in her penultimate start, before failing to fire at Ellerslie in a tougher field there 3 weeks ago. Go again here. INCREDIBLE (4) has needed all 4 runs back from a spell, and is now ready to put his best hoof forward in this. He is a sound top 4 hope here. SONORAN (7) did not have much luck over 1 ½m at Ellerslie last time out, and will have a key jockey change this time with Sam Collett picking up the ride. Stick with him on an each-way basis. FASTDEELDUN (9) steps up from a mile and tries a middle distance for the first time. A form reversal is on the cards. INTOXICATED (12) did not race up to expectations at Arawa Park last time out, but he is better than that. He drops 7lbs, and can bounce back into form in a race like this. Include in all top 4 combos.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Recent form sound. At the latest run came from midfield, 2nd of 9 at Taupo on December 28 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, head behind Top Dollar carrying 132lbs at $2.50. Before that held ground to the line 3rd of 14 at Trentham on December 6 over 1m, slow going 0.9 len behind Knickerless with 132lbs at $3.70. Winning chance. 1st Pick 2 Mustang Morgan Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Andrew Forsman J: Non Runner T: Andrew Forsman	177	-	-	-	23%	Scratched
Analysis Recent form sound. At the latest run came from midfield, 2nd of 9 at Taupo on December 28 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, head behind Top Dollar carrying 132lbs at $2.50. Before that held ground to the line 3rd of 14 at Trentham on December 6 over 1m, slow going 0.9 len behind Knickerless with 132lbs at $3.70. Winning chance.
13	Most recently 4th of 13 at Otaki on December 26 over 1m, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Thrilling carrying 118lbs at $6.10. The run before that 6th of 11 at Pukekohe on December 6 over 1 5/16m, slow going 3.5 len behind Casemiro carrying 126lbs at $8. Terrific chance to return to form. 2nd Pick 13 Smiling Eyes Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Shaune Ritchie & Colm Murray J: Non Runner T: Shaune Ritchie & Colm Murray	80	-	-	-	5%	Scratched
Analysis Most recently 4th of 13 at Otaki on December 26 over 1m, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Thrilling carrying 118lbs at $6.10. The run before that 6th of 11 at Pukekohe on December 6 over 1 5/16m, slow going 3.5 len behind Casemiro carrying 126lbs at $8. Terrific chance to return to form.
14	Last start ran last of 11 at Ellerslie on December 26 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 9 len behind Reliable Squeeze with 125lbs at $8.70. The run before that won by a long-neck at Tauranga December 12 over 1 5/16m in soft going defeating Romanin carrying 125lbs at $1.70. Expected to be in the finish. 3rd Pick 14 Vendabelle Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Ken & Bev Kelso J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Ken & Bev Kelso	92	-	-	-	19%
Analysis Last start ran last of 11 at Ellerslie on December 26 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 9 len behind Reliable Squeeze with 125lbs at $8.70. The run before that won by a long-neck at Tauranga December 12 over 1 5/16m in soft going defeating Romanin carrying 125lbs at $1.70. Expected to be in the finish.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Firm

A dry turf course, equal to a ‘fast’ dirt track.

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Furlong

One furlong is an eighth of a mile.