NZ - Te Rapa - Race 4

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

Maiden

Turf

HEAVY 9

11.6K

VIEW

Verdict

SNEAKY CYCLONE (2) has been edging his way towards a maiden win, and he tried his heart out at Avondale when finishing second as the favourite over this trip 10 days ago. Michael McNab sticks with him, and so do we. Follow your money. FORESTER (1) finished runner-up as Avondale on the same day as the top pick, but he was racing over 7f, He tries 1m for the first time, and his breeding says he will relish the task. Hard to beat. ARTFUL DODGER (6) made up a lot of late ground when finishing fifth at Ellerslie 5 weeks ago, and it was only a wide draw that prevented him from finishing closer. He has a superior gate this time, and he won't be in this grade for much longer. COMPULSION (3) ran his best race yet when finishing second at Ruakaka a fortnight ago. He won't have to improve by much to go one better in this, especially with the aid of a 7lbs claim. THE DARZI (5) made up a lot of late ground to finish fourth as the favourite in the same race as the third pick. Stick with him.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Racing well recently. Last start made some head-way from midfield, 2nd of 12 at Avondale on July 15 over 1m, on a wet track, 2.5 len behind Classic Grace with 129lbs at $3.50. Before that 4th of 14 at Arawa Park on July 1 over 7f, on a wet track, 5 len behind Chappy with 129lbs at $8.10. Working up to a win. Well placed to take this out. 1st Pick 2 Sneaky Cyclone Jockey: Michael Mcnab Trainer: Daniel Miller J: Michael Mcnab T: Daniel Miller	88	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Racing well recently. Last start made some head-way from midfield, 2nd of 12 at Avondale on July 15 over 1m, on a wet track, 2.5 len behind Classic Grace with 129lbs at $3.50. Before that 4th of 14 at Arawa Park on July 1 over 7f, on a wet track, 5 len behind Chappy with 129lbs at $8.10. Working up to a win. Well placed to take this out.
1	Recent form sound. At the latest run made ground from midfield, 2nd of 8 at Avondale on July 15 over 7f, on a wet track, 0.7 len behind Golden Point carrying 127lbs at $4.40. The run before that came home strongly from last on the turn, 4th of 10 at Tauranga on May 29 over 7f, 4 len behind Misissipi Gambler with 125lbs at $4.10. Making headway. Right in the mix again. 2nd Pick 1 Forester Jockey: Ace Lawson-Carroll Trainer: Annabelle Johnson J: Ace Lawson-Carroll T: Annabelle Johnson	90	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Recent form sound. At the latest run made ground from midfield, 2nd of 8 at Avondale on July 15 over 7f, on a wet track, 0.7 len behind Golden Point carrying 127lbs at $4.40. The run before that came home strongly from last on the turn, 4th of 10 at Tauranga on May 29 over 7f, 4 len behind Misissipi Gambler with 125lbs at $4.10. Making headway. Right in the mix again.
6	Returns from a 35-day let-up. Last start 5th of 14 at Ellerslie on June 20 over 1m, slow going 2 len behind La Tienda carrying 125lbs at $8.60. The start before that crossed from a wide gate to settle just off the pace but gave ground when 3rd of 14 at Te Aroha on June 4 over 1m, on a wet track, 1.75 len behind Final Reason with 125lbs at $7.40. Big chance to find winning form. 3rd Pick 6 Artful Dodger Jockey: Joe Doyle Trainer: Ross Mccarroll J: Joe Doyle T: Ross Mccarroll	82	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Returns from a 35-day let-up. Last start 5th of 14 at Ellerslie on June 20 over 1m, slow going 2 len behind La Tienda carrying 125lbs at $8.60. The start before that crossed from a wide gate to settle just off the pace but gave ground when 3rd of 14 at Te Aroha on June 4 over 1m, on a wet track, 1.75 len behind Final Reason with 125lbs at $7.40. Big chance to find winning form.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Colt

A male horse that is four years of age or under.

Yielding

A rain-soaked turf condition often producing a slick or heavy course and slower finish times.

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.