NZ - Te Rapa - Race 1

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

10.4f

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 6

15.0K

VIEW

Verdict

NAVY DREAMS (8) probably should have won a race by now, and was a brave fifth in the Listed Gingernuts Salver at Ellerslie nearly 3 weeks ago over this trip, finishing a length behind the winner. He has a good gate and is long overdue to break his duck. BERTIE WOOSTER (3) knuckled down late to finish third here a fortnight ago, and he only needs to relax a touch better in his races to be a big winning threat. Stick with him, as his first win is not far away. ROCKY BALBOA (2) finally gets a decent draw, and he has shown enough in the past to say he will win a race at short notice. Include in all top 4 combos. UNODOSTRESCUATRO (1) has been knocking on the door, and he put the writing on the wall last time out at Taupo when finishing runner-up by a nose. The extra 1 ½f is key. Go again. SAVINA (14) is expected to bounce straight back into form here.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Last start 5th of 13 at Ellerslie in the LR Gingernuts Salver on January 11 over 1 5/16m, 1.0 len behind Ammirati carrying 126lbs at $10.10. The race before that second last of 10 at Ellerslie on January 1 over 1m, on a slow track, 6 len behind Towering Vision carrying 123lbs at $6.50. Encouraging effort last start. Best form stacks up nicely so worth another chance. 1st Pick 8 Navy Dreams Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Barry Donoghue J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Barry Donoghue	87	-	-	-	50%
Analysis Last start 5th of 13 at Ellerslie in the LR Gingernuts Salver on January 11 over 1 5/16m, 1.0 len behind Ammirati carrying 126lbs at $10.10. The race before that second last of 10 at Ellerslie on January 1 over 1m, on a slow track, 6 len behind Towering Vision carrying 123lbs at $6.50. Encouraging effort last start. Best form stacks up nicely so worth another chance.
9	At the latest run 8th of 13 at Ellerslie in the LR Gingernuts Salver on January 11 over 1 5/16m, 2.5 len behind Ammirati carrying 126lbs at $17.70. The start before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 14 at Matamata on December 19 over 1m, on a slow track, 0.6 len behind Los Santos carrying 127lbs at $7.70. Hard to beat on his best form. 2nd Pick 9 Genki Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott J: Non Runner T: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott	92	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis At the latest run 8th of 13 at Ellerslie in the LR Gingernuts Salver on January 11 over 1 5/16m, 2.5 len behind Ammirati carrying 126lbs at $17.70. The start before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 14 at Matamata on December 19 over 1m, on a slow track, 0.6 len behind Los Santos carrying 127lbs at $7.70. Hard to beat on his best form.
3	Form hard to fault. At the latest run 3rd of 12 at this track on January 16 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 3 len behind My Fair Lily with 129lbs at $5.50. The start before that 4th of 9 at Te Aroha on January 3 over 1m, in the wet, 8 len behind Horrie with 129lbs at $3.30. Can improve again. Rates highly on best form and can feature. 3rd Pick 3 Bertie Wooster Jockey: Darren Danis Trainer: Chris Wood J: Darren Danis T: Chris Wood	59	-	-	-	8%
Analysis Form hard to fault. At the latest run 3rd of 12 at this track on January 16 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 3 len behind My Fair Lily with 129lbs at $5.50. The start before that 4th of 9 at Te Aroha on January 3 over 1m, in the wet, 8 len behind Horrie with 129lbs at $3.30. Can improve again. Rates highly on best form and can feature.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Claiming Race

A race in which horses are entered for a certain price, or claiming tag, which is also their sales price. An owner can claim any horse entered for the tag before the race begins, and owns them as soon as the gates open.

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.

Dead Heat

Two or more horses finishing so close at the wire, that they were unable to be separated on a photo finish and deemed to have tied.