NZ - Te Rapa - Race 7

Thoroughbred

17 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

20.5K

VIEW

Verdict

LODI DODI (14) had a good trip before being held up at a vital stage when searching for a gap at Ellerslie 2 weeks ago, and her effort was much better than it looks. She is still maturing, and with less time between starts also helping her, she will be hard to hold out in this. HAKKINEN (1) did well to finish second by a nose at Otaki 3 weeks ago when asked to make a long, sustained run from well back. He will have to be ridden in a similar manner here from another wide gate, but he can have the last say this time. BHARNSTORM (7) got back and did not fire fresh up from a wide draw on a heavy track here just over 2 weeks ago. Michael McNab replacing an apprentice is a positive change, and despite copping another tough gate, he can still figure in the top 4. Don't risk him. EVER CHARM (8) has not won for some time, but he has also not been too far away in his races. Include in all combos to be safe. RIO GRANDE (5) resumes from a spell, and he revels in the wet. Follow the market.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
14	At the latest run raced on the speed throughout before fading 7th of 17 at Ellerslie on April 18 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind Super Fly carrying 125lbs at $8.50. The race before that raced on speed throughout when 3rd of 10 at Matamata on March 22 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.0 len behind Mille Grazie carrying 123lbs at $6.50. Great chance to atone. 1st Pick 14 Lodi Dodi Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Graham Richardson & Rogan Norvall J: Craig Grylls T: Graham Richardson & Rogan Norvall	88	-	-	-	46%
Analysis At the latest run raced on the speed throughout before fading 7th of 17 at Ellerslie on April 18 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind Super Fly carrying 125lbs at $8.50. The race before that raced on speed throughout when 3rd of 10 at Matamata on March 22 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.0 len behind Mille Grazie carrying 123lbs at $6.50. Great chance to atone.
1	Recent form sound. At the latest run 2nd of 14 at Otaki on April 11 over 1m, on a slow track, nose behind Lerado carrying 131lbs at $2.70. Before that 4th of 10 at Matamata on March 22 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.3 len behind Mille Grazie with 131lbs at $2.50. Expected to be very competitive. 2nd Pick 1 Hakkinen Jockey: Sam Mcnab Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Sam Mcnab T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	125	-	-	-	13%
Analysis Recent form sound. At the latest run 2nd of 14 at Otaki on April 11 over 1m, on a slow track, nose behind Lerado carrying 131lbs at $2.70. Before that 4th of 10 at Matamata on March 22 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.3 len behind Mille Grazie with 131lbs at $2.50. Expected to be very competitive.
7	Second run back. First-up after four months second last of 14 at this track on April 17 over 6 ½f, on heavy track, 7 len behind Prudentia carrying 122lbs at $16.50. Previously second-up 2nd in a small field at Matamata on October 17 over 1m, on a wet track, 6 len behind Berry Brown with 129lbs at $7.20. Fitter and ready for sharp improvement. 3rd Pick 7 Bharnstorm Jockey: Michael Mcnab Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Michael Mcnab T: Stephen Marsh	94	-	-	-	4%
Analysis Second run back. First-up after four months second last of 14 at this track on April 17 over 6 ½f, on heavy track, 7 len behind Prudentia carrying 122lbs at $16.50. Previously second-up 2nd in a small field at Matamata on October 17 over 1m, on a wet track, 6 len behind Berry Brown with 129lbs at $7.20. Fitter and ready for sharp improvement.

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