NZ - Te Rapa - Race 6

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

6.5f

OPEN

Turf

HEAVY 9

29.1K

VIEW

Verdict

LITTLE BIT OF LOVE (1) is in great form, and his heavy track stats are very strong. He save his best for this track, and even as the carded top weight, he has to be the one to beat again. REWARD SMILE (2) finished ahead of the top pick when scoring by half-a-length here 3 weeks ago. He should not be bothered by the extra ½f, and with the right run in transit, there is no reason why he can't repeat the dose. UDERZO (3) has been mixing his form a touch this season, and he has hit the line nicely in his last couple of starts, which makes his drop back to 6 ½f a bit of a query for us, but if the tempo is genuine, he is good enough to have the last say in this. GRANDE GALLO (5) was beaten but not disgraced in the Tauranga Classic 4 weeks ago. He record in an anti-clockwise direction is a touch thin, but she can still figure in the top 4 here. TRISTAR (6) followed up from her overdue win here 2 starts back with a game fourth in the Tauranga Classic. Stick with her on an each-way basis.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Form hard to fault. Most recently ran on strongly from last on the turn, 2nd of 7 at this track on July 4 over 6f, on rain affected going, 0.6 len behind Reward Smile carrying 126lbs at $3.90. Before that 2nd of 13 at this track on June 13 over 6f, on a slow track, nose behind Tristar with 127lbs at $7.50. Will take plenty of beating. 1st Pick 1 Little Bit Of Love Jockey: Tom Wigram Trainer: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott J: Tom Wigram T: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott	80	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Form hard to fault. Most recently ran on strongly from last on the turn, 2nd of 7 at this track on July 4 over 6f, on rain affected going, 0.6 len behind Reward Smile carrying 126lbs at $3.90. Before that 2nd of 13 at this track on June 13 over 6f, on a slow track, nose behind Tristar with 127lbs at $7.50. Will take plenty of beating.
2	Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up 4th of 13 at this track on June 13 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.9 len behind Tristar with 128lbs at $9.30. Second-up favourite, won by 0.6 len at this track July 4 over 6f in the wet defeating Little Bit Of Love carrying 125lbs at $3.10. Profiles nicely. Key chance who can go close. 2nd Pick 2 Reward Smile Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Jenna Mahoney J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Jenna Mahoney	100	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up 4th of 13 at this track on June 13 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.9 len behind Tristar with 128lbs at $9.30. Second-up favourite, won by 0.6 len at this track July 4 over 6f in the wet defeating Little Bit Of Love carrying 125lbs at $3.10. Profiles nicely. Key chance who can go close.
3	Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 8 at this track on July 4 over 1m, on heavy track, 2.25 len behind Astoria Brooke with 125lbs at $6.50. The run before that from last on the turn ran last of 7 at Ellerslie on June 20 over 7f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Yaldi with 127lbs at $8.70. Best form stacks up nicely so worth another chance. 3rd Pick 3 Uderzo Jockey: Jack Taplin Trainer: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott J: Jack Taplin T: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott	96	-	-	-	10%	10/1
Analysis Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 8 at this track on July 4 over 1m, on heavy track, 2.25 len behind Astoria Brooke with 125lbs at $6.50. The run before that from last on the turn ran last of 7 at Ellerslie on June 20 over 7f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Yaldi with 127lbs at $8.70. Best form stacks up nicely so worth another chance.

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