NZ - Te Rapa - Race 6

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

28.7K

VIEW

Verdict

HERBERT (1) has had a couple of runs back from a spell in elite company without firing a shot. He will notice the drop in class this time, and dropping back to 7f won't be an issue. He is peaking third up, and a form reversal is on the cards. MARY SHAN (7) won fresh up before failing to fire as the favourite at Hawera last time out on a very testing track there just over 3 weeks ago. She will prefer a firmer surface, and from a good draw, she can make amends. Follow your money. DUSTY ROAD (3) had an excuse last time out and before that was not disgraced in G1 company at Ellerslie. He may not have won for some time, but does like it here, and can feature at some decent each-way value. CAPTURED BY LOVE (9) was a beaten favourite fresh up at Ellerslie off the back of some strong lead-up trials. She was much better when motoring home late for second at Taupo 17 days ago, and she can have the last say here. WILD NIGHT (2) was beaten by a wide gate fresh up. Stick with him. Each way.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up raced on the pace before fading 10th of 16 at Ellerslie in the G1 Proisir Plate on September 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Quintessa carrying 130lbs at $70.60. Last start raced on the pace before fading second last of 14 at this track in the G1 Howden Mile on September 27 over 1m, in the wet, 9 len behind Waitak carrying 130lbs at $36.10. Racing well. Has the ability and a bold showing is expected. 1st Pick 1 Herbert Jockey: Unknown Jockey Trainer: John Wheeler J: Unknown Jockey T: John Wheeler	80	-	-	-	8%	12/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up raced on the pace before fading 10th of 16 at Ellerslie in the G1 Proisir Plate on September 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Quintessa carrying 130lbs at $70.60. Last start raced on the pace before fading second last of 14 at this track in the G1 Howden Mile on September 27 over 1m, in the wet, 9 len behind Waitak carrying 130lbs at $36.10. Racing well. Has the ability and a bold showing is expected.
7	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up favourite, won by a neck at Wanganui August 30 over 6f on a heavy track defeating Amend with 119lbs at $2.50. Second-up faded in the straight second last of 8 at Hawera in the G3 Taranaki Breeders (Evergreen) Stakes on October 4 over 7f, in the wet, 5.5 len behind Hi Yo Sass Bomb carrying 126lbs at $3. Racing well. Terrific chance in a suitable contest. 2nd Pick 7 Mary Shan Jockey: Matthew Cameron Trainer: Andrew Forsman J: Matthew Cameron T: Andrew Forsman	102	-	-	-	14%	13/2
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up favourite, won by a neck at Wanganui August 30 over 6f on a heavy track defeating Amend with 119lbs at $2.50. Second-up faded in the straight second last of 8 at Hawera in the G3 Taranaki Breeders (Evergreen) Stakes on October 4 over 7f, in the wet, 5.5 len behind Hi Yo Sass Bomb carrying 126lbs at $3. Racing well. Terrific chance in a suitable contest.
3	Last start second last of 10 at Arawa Park in the G3 Arawa (Sweynesse) Stakes on October 12 over 6f, on a wet track, 6 len behind Twain with 130lbs at $40.40. Before that raced on the pace before fading 13th of 16 at Ellerslie in the G1 Proisir Plate on September 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Quintessa carrying 130lbs at $68.40. Rates highly on his best form and can feature. 3rd Pick 3 Dusty Road Jockey: Jonathan Riddell Trainer: Graeme Cameron J: Jonathan Riddell T: Graeme Cameron	133	-	-	-	10%	10/1
Analysis Last start second last of 10 at Arawa Park in the G3 Arawa (Sweynesse) Stakes on October 12 over 6f, on a wet track, 6 len behind Twain with 130lbs at $40.40. Before that raced on the pace before fading 13th of 16 at Ellerslie in the G1 Proisir Plate on September 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Quintessa carrying 130lbs at $68.40. Rates highly on his best form and can feature.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.

Also Eligible

A horse that is entered but does not draw into the body of the field due to too many entries, and thus is not permitted to start unless there are enough scratches to shrink the field size.

Colt

A male horse that is four years of age or under.