NZ - Te Rapa - Race 2

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

11.9f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

22.9K

VIEW

Verdict

HEZA SHARP ONE (6) ran on too late over 1 ¼m as the favourite at Taupo last time out, finishing third by less than a length. He will relish the extra 2f, and it is good to see Craig Grylls keep the faith. Hard to beat again. MA BAKER (10) peaked on her effort second up at Matamata 10 days ago and will be peaking at the right time for her step up to a more suitable 22f trip this time. Hard to beat. TE ATATU DREAM (5) won't lack fitness and gave a great sight in front before being bloused on the line, finishing runner-up by a nose. The extra 2f should not be a problem, and she may take some pegging back again. BLACKWATERFOOT (8) was a sound third on the poly track at Cambridge nearly 5 weeks ago. She has not missed a cheque on this track, including her only win to date, and she should be a solid each-way hope here. JOEJOECCINI (1) will be backing up quickly if her starts here, and is form is good enough for him to be a top 4 chance this time.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
6	At the latest run 3rd of 13 at Taupo on October 10 over 1 ¼m, slow going 0.7 len behind Tukituki carrying 132lbs at $2.10. The run before that 6th of 15 at this track on September 27 over 1m, on heavy track, 3 len behind Suavetta with 127lbs at $8. Looks tough to stop again. 1st Pick 6 Heza Sharp One Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Graeme & Debbie Rogerson J: Craig Grylls T: Graeme & Debbie Rogerson	122	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis At the latest run 3rd of 13 at Taupo on October 10 over 1 ¼m, slow going 0.7 len behind Tukituki carrying 132lbs at $2.10. The run before that 6th of 15 at this track on September 27 over 1m, on heavy track, 3 len behind Suavetta with 127lbs at $8. Looks tough to stop again.
10	Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming 5th of 10 at Te Aroha on September 19 over 1m, on a wet track, 4 len behind Shivoo carrying 146lbs at $11.30. Second-up 4th of 8 at Matamata on October 17 over 1 ¼m, slow going 2.5 len behind Sweet But Psycho carrying 126lbs at $7.50. Capable of sharp improvement. 2nd Pick 10 Ma Baker Jockey: Jasmine Fawcett Trainer: Vicki Prendergast J: Jasmine Fawcett T: Vicki Prendergast	108	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming 5th of 10 at Te Aroha on September 19 over 1m, on a wet track, 4 len behind Shivoo carrying 146lbs at $11.30. Second-up 4th of 8 at Matamata on October 17 over 1 ¼m, slow going 2.5 len behind Sweet But Psycho carrying 126lbs at $7.50. Capable of sharp improvement.
5	Recent form sound. Last start tried to lead throughout but was claimed late 2nd of 8 at Matamata on October 17 over 1 ¼m, slow going nose behind Sweet But Psycho carrying 119lbs at $6.80. The run before that sat on the pace when 3rd of 9 at Matamata on October 4 over 1 ¼m, in the wet, 1.5 len behind Muscovado carrying 119lbs at $12.30. Went close last time. Will take plenty of beating. 3rd Pick 5 Te Atatu Dream Jockey: Joe Nishizuka Trainer: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott J: Joe Nishizuka T: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott	149	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Recent form sound. Last start tried to lead throughout but was claimed late 2nd of 8 at Matamata on October 17 over 1 ¼m, slow going nose behind Sweet But Psycho carrying 119lbs at $6.80. The run before that sat on the pace when 3rd of 9 at Matamata on October 4 over 1 ¼m, in the wet, 1.5 len behind Muscovado carrying 119lbs at $12.30. Went close last time. Will take plenty of beating.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Furlong

One furlong is an eighth of a mile.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Yielding

A rain-soaked turf condition often producing a slick or heavy course and slower finish times.