NZ - Tauranga - Race 7

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

14.5K

VIEW

Verdict

TOP SHELF (1) has been close up carrying big weights in all 3 starts this prep. She benefits from a 7lbs claim this time, and that could be enough to see her record a well-deserved victory. Follow your money. CARISBROOKE CASTLE (2) won on debut and then just battled in 2 starts thereafter when needing time to mature. He resumes over a mile and will be ready to rumble after a sound recent trial placing at Taupo. EL ARISH (4) has not found the front in his last couple of starts, and has not let down as expected. Craig Grylls takes over from an apprentice, and he is expected to be more positive early. Don't be surprised to see this gelding take them all the way in this. LUCAN (5) will be peaking third up, and with the advantage of the pole position, he can figure in the top 3 here. EMMY DAZZLER (7) has been in terrific form in some decent fields this prep, and another honest run is on the cards.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
1	Recent form sound. Last start held ground to the line 2nd of 14 at this track on November 15 over 7f, slow going 0.8 len behind Crackercol carrying 134lbs at $3.50. The race before that 3rd of 14 at Ellerslie on October 25 over 1m, slow going 0.8 len behind Sneak Peek carrying 133lbs at $5.50. Major player. 1st Pick 1 Top Shelf Jockey: Hayley Hassman Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Hayley Hassman T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	136	-	-	-	39%
Analysis Recent form sound. Last start held ground to the line 2nd of 14 at this track on November 15 over 7f, slow going 0.8 len behind Crackercol carrying 134lbs at $3.50. The race before that 3rd of 14 at Ellerslie on October 25 over 1m, slow going 0.8 len behind Sneak Peek carrying 133lbs at $5.50. Major player.
2	Resuming. Finished off last campaign second last of 10 at Te Rapa in the G2 Waikato Gns February 8 over 1 ¼m, 25 len behind Tuxedo with 126lbs at $38.70. At his first start won by nose Ruakaka January 7 over 1m defeating Turnmeon carrying 119lbs at $3.10. Expected to feature. 2nd Pick 2 Carisbrooke Castle Jockey: George Rooke Trainer: Roger James & Robert Wellwood J: George Rooke T: Roger James & Robert Wellwood	86	-	-	-	13%
Analysis Resuming. Finished off last campaign second last of 10 at Te Rapa in the G2 Waikato Gns February 8 over 1 ¼m, 25 len behind Tuxedo with 126lbs at $38.70. At his first start won by nose Ruakaka January 7 over 1m defeating Turnmeon carrying 119lbs at $3.10. Expected to feature.
4	Last start sat behind the speed prior to fading second last of 12 at Pukekohe on November 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 9 len behind Billy Blinx carrying 125lbs at $11.80. The start before that 8th of 17 at Ellerslie on November 4 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Steely Man with 126lbs at $12.30. Better than that last run suggests. 3rd Pick 4 El Arish Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Craig Grylls T: Stephen Marsh	82	-	-	-	15%
Analysis Last start sat behind the speed prior to fading second last of 12 at Pukekohe on November 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 9 len behind Billy Blinx carrying 125lbs at $11.80. The start before that 8th of 17 at Ellerslie on November 4 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Steely Man with 126lbs at $12.30. Better than that last run suggests.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Turf Course

A racetrack made of grass.

Firm

A dry turf course, equal to a ‘fast’ dirt track.

Show Wager

Betting on a horse to finish in the first three spots, which pays out the same whether they win or run second or third.