NZ - Tauranga - Race 7

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

11.1K

VIEW

Verdict

CROWN PRINCESS (8) needed the run badly when finishing out of the money as the favourite fresh up at Matamata before running on too late for fourth there nearly a fortnight ago. She will be peaking now, and more importantly, Opie Bosson takes over from an apprentice, and she is the one to beat. EL ARISH (1) can mix his form, and he will be dropping back in class for this assignment. His last win was 3 starts back on this track, and if he can find the front, he will take plenty of pegging back. PERMISSIVE (11) made a bright start to her season, and then was a fair sixth in a tougher field at Ellerslie over 6 ½f 25 days ago. She has a superior draw here, and with a dip in class, she can figure in the top 3. FAT CAT (5) was a run short fresh up in the G2 Auckland Guineas, and then was close up in a better field last time out. He will relish getting out to a mile third up, and he is poised to put his best hoof forward in this. BUSTER SHAW (6) is likely to be running on late. Include.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Third-up today. First-up from last on the turn 9th of 11 at Matamata on December 19 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind Transaction carrying 126lbs at $3.90. Second-up 4th of 7 at Matamata on January 23 over 1m, on a slow track, 5.5 len behind Geneva carrying 118lbs at $3.40. Should be at her top now and can play a major role. 1st Pick 8 Crown Princess Jockey: Opie Bosson Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Opie Bosson T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	119	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Third-up today. First-up from last on the turn 9th of 11 at Matamata on December 19 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind Transaction carrying 126lbs at $3.90. Second-up 4th of 7 at Matamata on January 23 over 1m, on a slow track, 5.5 len behind Geneva carrying 118lbs at $3.40. Should be at her top now and can play a major role.
1	At the latest run 6th of 15 at Ellerslie on January 11 over 1m, 1.75 len behind Sorghaghtani carrying 123lbs at $46.60. The start before that raced on the speed throughout before fading second last of 15 at Ellerslie on December 26 over 7 ½f, slow going 9 len behind Rise Companions with 121lbs at $56.10. Capable of sharp improvement. 2nd Pick 1 El Arish Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Craig Grylls T: Stephen Marsh	121	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis At the latest run 6th of 15 at Ellerslie on January 11 over 1m, 1.75 len behind Sorghaghtani carrying 123lbs at $46.60. The start before that raced on the speed throughout before fading second last of 15 at Ellerslie on December 26 over 7 ½f, slow going 9 len behind Rise Companions with 121lbs at $56.10. Capable of sharp improvement.
11	Most recently 6th of 11 at Ellerslie on January 11 over 6 ½f, 4 len behind Moschino carrying 122lbs at $13. The race before that came from midfield, 3rd of 13 at Arawa Park on December 27 over 7f, slow going 3 len behind Timbuctoo with 128lbs at $3. Very fit and should run well. 3rd Pick 11 Permissive Jockey: Rihaan Goyaram Trainer: Graham Richardson & Rogan Norvall J: Rihaan Goyaram T: Graham Richardson & Rogan Norvall	98	-	-	-	6%	16/1
Analysis Most recently 6th of 11 at Ellerslie on January 11 over 6 ½f, 4 len behind Moschino carrying 122lbs at $13. The race before that came from midfield, 3rd of 13 at Arawa Park on December 27 over 7f, slow going 3 len behind Timbuctoo with 128lbs at $3. Very fit and should run well.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Fractions

The times recorded during the race; with timing starting just past the gate or when the gates open, then parroted for the quarter, half, three-quarters etc. Used as an indication of ability and speed.

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.

Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.