NZ - Tauranga - Race 5

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

11.1K

VIEW

Verdict

MAGIC CARPET (4) was put aside after producing a solid effort for eighth in the G1 2000 Guineas at Riccarton in the spring. He has had a recent trial, and at this level, he is the one to beat, despite copping a wide gate. DRAMATIC MISS (8) has found it hard to win another race, but her recent racing has been in tougher fields than this. She is the main threat to the top pick, if there is to be one. FIRST DANCE (5) is a very consistent mare. Her last start, fifth, was on a good field at Ellerslie nearly 6 weeks ago. Her space between runs would have done her no harm, and from the pole position, she will be among the hardest to beat. LEROY BROWN (1) seems to be at his best when allowed to make his own rules in front. He has won 3 of 5 on this track, which is always a big advantage, and he could be very hard to peg back in this. POW WOW (3) seldom has long preps, and he is resuming again after a short prep. He is now 9 years old, but on his day, he can figure in the top 4 at odds.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Resuming after a 12 weeks break. Finished off last preparation eighth of 15 at Riccarton Park in the G1 Nz 2000 Gns November 15 over 1m, in the wet, 7 len behind Romanoff with 126lbs at $23.50. On debut third of 11 at Te Rapa 3yo Mdn-Sw August 23 over 6f, in the wet, 1.5 len behind Quantum Legend carrying 127lbs at $19.80. Expected to feature. 1st Pick 4 Magic Carpet Jockey: George Rooke Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: George Rooke T: Stephen Marsh	122	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Resuming after a 12 weeks break. Finished off last preparation eighth of 15 at Riccarton Park in the G1 Nz 2000 Gns November 15 over 1m, in the wet, 7 len behind Romanoff with 126lbs at $23.50. On debut third of 11 at Te Rapa 3yo Mdn-Sw August 23 over 6f, in the wet, 1.5 len behind Quantum Legend carrying 127lbs at $19.80. Expected to feature.
8	Comes here off a 35-day let-up. Last start 5th of 10 at Ellerslie on January 1 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind Romilly with 121lbs at $4.70. The start before that 7th of 15 at Ellerslie on December 26 over 7 ½f, slow going 4 len behind Rise Companions with 121lbs at $15.10. Nice effort last time. Tough to beat if near her best. 2nd Pick 8 Dramatic Miss Jockey: Matt Cartwright Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Matt Cartwright T: Stephen Marsh	100	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Comes here off a 35-day let-up. Last start 5th of 10 at Ellerslie on January 1 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind Romilly with 121lbs at $4.70. The start before that 7th of 15 at Ellerslie on December 26 over 7 ½f, slow going 4 len behind Rise Companions with 121lbs at $15.10. Nice effort last time. Tough to beat if near her best.
5	Returns from a 41-day let-up. Last start 5th of 15 at Ellerslie on December 26 over 7 ½f, slow going 3.5 len behind Rise Companions with 125lbs at $6.50. The race before that came from midfield, 2nd of 14 at Pukekohe on December 6 over 7f, on a slow track, head behind Moxie with 125lbs at $6.40. Sure to be tough to beat from an inside gate. 3rd Pick 5 First Dance Jockey: Warren Kennedy Trainer: Lance Noble J: Warren Kennedy T: Lance Noble	121	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Returns from a 41-day let-up. Last start 5th of 15 at Ellerslie on December 26 over 7 ½f, slow going 3.5 len behind Rise Companions with 125lbs at $6.50. The race before that came from midfield, 2nd of 14 at Pukekohe on December 6 over 7f, on a slow track, head behind Moxie with 125lbs at $6.40. Sure to be tough to beat from an inside gate.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Dead Heat

Two or more horses finishing so close at the wire, that they were unable to be separated on a photo finish and deemed to have tied.

Breeder

The owner of a horse’s dam – or mother - at the time a horse is foaled.

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.