NZ - Trentham - Race 4

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

57.8K

VIEW

Verdict

ORIGIN OF LOVE (3) is a very promising filly who was a sound fifth in the G1 1000 Guineas at Riccarton 6 weeks ago. She was a G3 winner there before that, and she should go close to taking this out. WAR PRINCESS (1) got to be within a head of completing a hat-trick of wins when finishing runner-up in Stakes company at Whanganui 3 weeks ago. She will relish the step up to a mile, and can bounce straight back into the winner's circle here. CAPACI (6) bolted in on debut on her home track 16 days ago, and won't be bothered by stepping up to a mile here. There is more depth to this field, but she has the scope to go on with the job. CHEEKY DEVIL (7) lifted late when getting up to score by a nose at Arawa Park last start. She goes straight to a mile, and can't be risked.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Comes off a 42 day let-up. At the latest run tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 12 at Riccarton Park in the G1 New Zealand 1000 Guineas on November 8 over 1m, 5 len behind Well Written with 125lbs at $19.60. The run before that won by a nose at Riccarton Park G3 War Decree Stakes October 25 over 1m defeating Professional Lad carrying 121lbs at $3.40. Expected to atone. 1st Pick 3 Origin Of Love Jockey: Vinnie Colgan Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Vinnie Colgan T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	132	-	-	-	46%
Analysis Comes off a 42 day let-up. At the latest run tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 12 at Riccarton Park in the G1 New Zealand 1000 Guineas on November 8 over 1m, 5 len behind Well Written with 125lbs at $19.60. The run before that won by a nose at Riccarton Park G3 War Decree Stakes October 25 over 1m defeating Professional Lad carrying 121lbs at $3.40. Expected to atone.
1	Racing well recently. Most recently sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 9 at Wanganui in the LR O'Learys Fillies Stakes (Trudy Thomson Memorial) on November 29 over 6 ¾f, on a slow track, neck behind Circus Dancer carrying 125lbs at $2.30. The race before that favourite, won by a head at Tauranga November 1 over 6f on a soft track defeating Lubeck with 125lbs at $4.30. Tough to beat on latest and can measure up again. 2nd Pick 1 War Princess Jockey: Samantha Collett Trainer: Peter And Trent Didham J: Samantha Collett T: Peter And Trent Didham	124	-	-	-	23%
Analysis Racing well recently. Most recently sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 9 at Wanganui in the LR O'Learys Fillies Stakes (Trudy Thomson Memorial) on November 29 over 6 ¾f, on a slow track, neck behind Circus Dancer carrying 125lbs at $2.30. The race before that favourite, won by a head at Tauranga November 1 over 6f on a soft track defeating Lubeck with 125lbs at $4.30. Tough to beat on latest and can measure up again.
4	Had two starts to date. When well in the market at debut, favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, scored a big 3.5 len win at New Plymouth Raceway November 5 over 7f defeating La Cadiere carrying 123lbs at $1.90. Second-up 2nd of 7 at this track on December 6 over 7f, on a slow track, long-neck behind Our Sniper carrying 121lbs at $1.90. Tough to beat on best form. 3rd Pick 4 The Dirty Dee Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Robbie Patterson J: Non Runner T: Robbie Patterson	127	-	-	-	29%	Scratched
Analysis Had two starts to date. When well in the market at debut, favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, scored a big 3.5 len win at New Plymouth Raceway November 5 over 7f defeating La Cadiere carrying 123lbs at $1.90. Second-up 2nd of 7 at this track on December 6 over 7f, on a slow track, long-neck behind Our Sniper carrying 121lbs at $1.90. Tough to beat on best form.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.

Turf Course

A racetrack made of grass.