NZ - Te Aroha - Race 10

Thoroughbred

18 Runners

Unknown

Turf

SOFT 5

14.0K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

ACAPELAGO (3) was only beaten by a head at Ellerslie in a stronger field fresh up, and then was well beaten there last time out when not having much luck in the running. She slides down in grade and can get the job done this time. AMUSEMENT (10) was ridden cold at Ellerslie last start and caught the eye with a big late finish for seventh. She drops 4lbs here, and with the long straight here, she will have plenty of time to wind up to have the last say. Stick with her. I AM NUTZ (1) has been building his fitness with 3 starts back from a spell. He looked a lot more like his old self at Tauranga 11 days ago, over 1200, and with the extra furlong to travel this time, he can figure in the top 3 at some decent odds. ANTON (2) won his first couple of races this prep on the bounce at BM65 level, and he has since battled in B75 grade. He looks to be suited at this level and can bounce back into some good form here. SIR FERGUS (15) will be peaking third up, and he is not out of this.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 2nd of 14 at Ellerslie on September 20 over 6f, on a slow track, head behind Celestial Wonder with 119lbs at $10.20. Second-up raced behind the speed prior to fading second last of 14 at Ellerslie on November 4 over 7f, on a slow track, 10 len behind She's A Dealer carrying 121lbs at $11.50. Worth forgiving and can turn things around. 1st Pick 3 Acapelago Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Simon & Katrina Alexander J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Simon & Katrina Alexander	148	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 2nd of 14 at Ellerslie on September 20 over 6f, on a slow track, head behind Celestial Wonder with 119lbs at $10.20. Second-up raced behind the speed prior to fading second last of 14 at Ellerslie on November 4 over 7f, on a slow track, 10 len behind She's A Dealer carrying 121lbs at $11.50. Worth forgiving and can turn things around.
10	Last start from last on the turn 7th of 14 at Ellerslie on November 4 over 7f, slow going 3 len behind Mad Max with 126lbs at $7.20. The race before that crossed from a wide gate to lead but couldn't hold on when 5th of 16 at Ellerslie on October 18 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Summerston carrying 126lbs at $23.20. Finds a nice race and is among the winning hopes. 2nd Pick 10 Amusement Jockey: Sam Weatherley Trainer: Darryn & Briar Weatherley J: Sam Weatherley T: Darryn & Briar Weatherley	82	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Last start from last on the turn 7th of 14 at Ellerslie on November 4 over 7f, slow going 3 len behind Mad Max with 126lbs at $7.20. The race before that crossed from a wide gate to lead but couldn't hold on when 5th of 16 at Ellerslie on October 18 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Summerston carrying 126lbs at $23.20. Finds a nice race and is among the winning hopes.
1	Most recently 5th of 13 at Tauranga on November 15 over 6f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Charmrose with 119lbs at $23.60. The race before that 7th of 12 at this track on October 22 over 5 ¾f, slow going 3 len behind Nepheti carrying 130lbs at $7.20. Well placed and can improve sharply. 3rd Pick 1 I Am Nutz Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Craig Grylls T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	141	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Most recently 5th of 13 at Tauranga on November 15 over 6f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Charmrose with 119lbs at $23.60. The race before that 7th of 12 at this track on October 22 over 5 ¾f, slow going 3 len behind Nepheti carrying 130lbs at $7.20. Well placed and can improve sharply.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Workout

A workout is a timed sprint over varying distances prior to a race, meant to get a horse fit enough for competition.

Paddock

The area where horses gather before the race to be saddled and paraded for the public.

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).