AU - Mount Gambier - Race 4

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 9

15.2K

VIEW

Verdict

Small field but some talented gallopers for this class of race. BILLIE BRONX (5) looked good winning first time out for the new stable. This is harder but she will roll forward again and be hard to catch with the 9lbs claim. TI TREE LAD (2) looks one of the horses to beat. He is arguably the best horse in the race and he'll have to carry the weight accordingly. But he's drawn well and can stalk the speed. PRETENTIOUS LASS (7) will find this easier that last start and her win before that was full of merit. The map looks great for her and she's another that will be finishing hard late. SALSBURY HILL (4) is a last-start track and distance winner that must be respected, while ZEB'S GLASS (8) could be a horse to run a cheeky race at a price if things go his way.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Second-up. First-up after five months favourite, won by 3.5 len at Warrnambool Bm56 September 22 over 6f defeating Artpark with 122lbs at $3. Previously second-up 8th of 13 at Oakbank 0-62 on April 21 over 7f, slow going 4 len behind Tupoleu with 128lbs at $8.50. Great chance to make it two in a row. Still has scope for improvement and is well-placed to win this. 1st Pick 5 Billie Bronx Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Tom Dabernig J: Non Runner T: Tom Dabernig	209	-	-	-	1%	99/1
Analysis Second-up. First-up after five months favourite, won by 3.5 len at Warrnambool Bm56 September 22 over 6f defeating Artpark with 122lbs at $3. Previously second-up 8th of 13 at Oakbank 0-62 on April 21 over 7f, slow going 4 len behind Tupoleu with 128lbs at $8.50. Great chance to make it two in a row. Still has scope for improvement and is well-placed to win this.
2	Racing well recently. Comes here off a 29-day let-up. Most recently 4th of 10 at Warrnambool Bm62 on September 9 over 6 ½f, on a wet track, 5.5 len behind Geffina with 134lbs at $3.40. The race before that favourite, won by 0.8 len at Bendigo Bm64 August 14 over 6 ½f in soft going defeating Chest Of Gold carrying 128lbs at $10. Best is good enough to win this. 2nd Pick 2 Ti Tree Lad Jockey: Alana Kelly Trainer: Mitchell Freedman J: Alana Kelly T: Mitchell Freedman	135	-	-	-	1%	99/1
Analysis Racing well recently. Comes here off a 29-day let-up. Most recently 4th of 10 at Warrnambool Bm62 on September 9 over 6 ½f, on a wet track, 5.5 len behind Geffina with 134lbs at $3.40. The race before that favourite, won by 0.8 len at Bendigo Bm64 August 14 over 6 ½f in soft going defeating Chest Of Gold carrying 128lbs at $10. Best is good enough to win this.
7	Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up ran on from midfield and won by 0.6 len at Morphettville F&M 0-56 September 3 over 6f on a soft track defeating Startide with 132lbs at $11. Second-up 7th of 11 at Morphettville Parks 0-64 on September 27 over 6 ¼f, 4.5 len behind Nicish carrying 122lbs at $11. Capable of a better showing. Looks well placed to finish in the money. 3rd Pick 7 Pretentious Lass Jockey: Rochelle Milnes Trainer: Ryan Hannemann J: Rochelle Milnes T: Ryan Hannemann	142	-	-	-	1%	99/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up ran on from midfield and won by 0.6 len at Morphettville F&M 0-56 September 3 over 6f on a soft track defeating Startide with 132lbs at $11. Second-up 7th of 11 at Morphettville Parks 0-64 on September 27 over 6 ¼f, 4.5 len behind Nicish carrying 122lbs at $11. Capable of a better showing. Looks well placed to finish in the money.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Objection

Claim of foul lodged by a jockey for perceived dangerous or illegal riding by a rival.