AU - Morphettville - Race 7

Thoroughbred

19 Runners

12.9f

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

106.1K

VIEW

Verdict

ARUGAMAMA (12) was good here fresh in a key lead-up and now meets them with a significant 9lbs swing at the weights. She's produced her best figures once she gets out to these genuine staying journeys and looks perfectly placed to add a black-type win to the resume. BOLD SOUL (1) has been giving himself too much to do all prep, but he's got the miles in the legs now and is a proven operator at this level. If Noonan can have him rolling before the corner, he'll take plenty of stopping. KOMACHI (2) has really found her groove over staying trips and continues to elevate. This is her first crack at a journey of this depth, but if they roll forward again, she'll give herself every chance. CRIMSON VINE (14) has returned to somewhere near her best in her past two and should be hitting her straps for what is clearly a target race. Don't dismiss. MR WATERVILLE (4) closed strongly to just miss at Colac and the rise in trip is a big tick. Pannell will need to be sharp from the wide draw.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
12	Second run back. First-up after three months 4th of 10 at this track in the LR Premiers Plate on February 7 over 1 ¼m, 2.5 len behind Komachi carrying 128lbs at $7.50. Previously second-up 13th of 15 at Balaklava in the LR Bkva Cup on September 10 over 1m, slow going 8 len behind Sav On Ice with 119lbs at $101. Terrific chance to return to form. 1st Pick 12 Arugamama Jockey: Taylor Johnstone Trainer: Andrew Gluyas J: Taylor Johnstone T: Andrew Gluyas	152	-	-	-	13%
Analysis Second run back. First-up after three months 4th of 10 at this track in the LR Premiers Plate on February 7 over 1 ¼m, 2.5 len behind Komachi carrying 128lbs at $7.50. Previously second-up 13th of 15 at Balaklava in the LR Bkva Cup on September 10 over 1m, slow going 8 len behind Sav On Ice with 119lbs at $101. Terrific chance to return to form.
1	At the latest run 5th of 13 at Hobart in the G3 Hobart Cup on February 8 over 1 ½m, on a slow track, 3 len behind Blonde Star with 132lbs at $3.90. The race before that ran last of 7 at Caulfield Bm100 on January 31 over 1 ¼m, 4.5 len behind Magnaspin with 132lbs at $8.50. Key runner who is a great chance to atone. 2nd Pick 1 Bold Soul Jockey: Jake Noonan Trainer: Patrick & Michelle Payne J: Jake Noonan T: Patrick & Michelle Payne	199	-	-	-	25%
Analysis At the latest run 5th of 13 at Hobart in the G3 Hobart Cup on February 8 over 1 ½m, on a slow track, 3 len behind Blonde Star with 132lbs at $3.90. The race before that ran last of 7 at Caulfield Bm100 on January 31 over 1 ¼m, 4.5 len behind Magnaspin with 132lbs at $8.50. Key runner who is a great chance to atone.
2	Form hard to fault. At the latest run favourite, won by 0.5 len at this track LR Premiers Plate February 7 over 1 ¼m defeating Crimson Vine with 127lbs at $3.10. The run before that held ground to the line 2nd of 13 at Strathalbyn Sbyn Cup on February 1 over 1 ¼m, long-neck behind Kirkliston Blu carrying 130lbs at $5.50. Hard to fault and can go on with it. 3rd Pick 2 Komachi Jockey: Rochelle Milnes Trainer: Will Clarken J: Rochelle Milnes T: Will Clarken	152	-	-	-	20%
Analysis Form hard to fault. At the latest run favourite, won by 0.5 len at this track LR Premiers Plate February 7 over 1 ¼m defeating Crimson Vine with 127lbs at $3.10. The run before that held ground to the line 2nd of 13 at Strathalbyn Sbyn Cup on February 1 over 1 ¼m, long-neck behind Kirkliston Blu carrying 130lbs at $5.50. Hard to fault and can go on with it.

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