AU - Morphettville - Race 1

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

8.9f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

43.6K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

SURPRISE COMING (4) is yet to break through this campaign and has tested punters' patience, but gets a golden chance to repay the faith. Strips rock-hard fit and maps to get all the favours, with Milnes taking over on the quick back-up a potential winning move. KOMACHI (1) drove hard to score here two back and while not as effective last time, he was still strong late. The rise in trip looks ideal and he should be charging again. FALAISE (3) was too strong late at Murray Bridge and is unbeaten over this journey. Fitness is assured, just needs the gaps to appear. ISUSPECTJEU (8) never looked likely last time but made solid late inroads. The step up in trip suits and she carries next to nothing with the claim. No surprise if she's in the finish. YURI ROYALE (2) doesn't win often but his peaks measure up. Worth keeping safe in exotics.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Last start 5th of 8 at Murray Bridge Bm70 on December 20 over 1m, 1.3 len behind Falaise with 132lbs at $4.60. The start before that 3rd of 9 at Donald Don Cup on November 16 over 1m, 2 len behind Dark Journey carrying 119lbs at $3. Best form measures up and he looks a huge chance. 1st Pick 4 Surprise Coming Jockey: Rochelle Milnes Trainer: Mick Huxtable J: Rochelle Milnes T: Mick Huxtable	151	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Last start 5th of 8 at Murray Bridge Bm70 on December 20 over 1m, 1.3 len behind Falaise with 132lbs at $4.60. The start before that 3rd of 9 at Donald Don Cup on November 16 over 1m, 2 len behind Dark Journey carrying 119lbs at $3. Best form measures up and he looks a huge chance.
1	Racing well recently. Most recently ran on from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Gawler Bm78 on December 13 over 7 ½f, 2 len behind Snoopy Now carrying 129lbs at $9.50. Before that won by 0.5 len at this track Happy Trails November 22 over 1m in soft going defeating Dual Pressure carrying 119lbs at $10. Key runner and should be in the finish. 2nd Pick 1 Komachi Jockey: Kayla Crowther Trainer: Will Clarken J: Kayla Crowther T: Will Clarken	187	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Racing well recently. Most recently ran on from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Gawler Bm78 on December 13 over 7 ½f, 2 len behind Snoopy Now carrying 129lbs at $9.50. Before that won by 0.5 len at this track Happy Trails November 22 over 1m in soft going defeating Dual Pressure carrying 119lbs at $10. Key runner and should be in the finish.
3	Most recently won by 0.6 len at Murray Bridge Bm70 December 20 over 1m defeating Wild Winner with 129lbs at $4.80. Before that eased back early on 6th of 12 at Morphettville Parks Bm66 on November 29 over 7 ¾f, 2.5 len behind I Catchem Fox with 134lbs at $7.50. Hard to beat again. 3rd Pick 3 Falaise Jockey: Jacob Opperman Trainer: Stuart Padman J: Jacob Opperman T: Stuart Padman	137	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Most recently won by 0.6 len at Murray Bridge Bm70 December 20 over 1m defeating Wild Winner with 129lbs at $4.80. Before that eased back early on 6th of 12 at Morphettville Parks Bm66 on November 29 over 7 ¾f, 2.5 len behind I Catchem Fox with 134lbs at $7.50. Hard to beat again.

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