AU - Morphettville - Race 4

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

8.9f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

75.0K

VIEW

Verdict

BARGAIN BOY (7) was no match for a smart winner in the LR Port Adelaide Guineas but stuck on well for a midfield finish. Now finds an easier race with Craig Williams a key switch to help offset the wide draw. WINE BARRON (3) improved sharply at Gawler when ridden forward and now backs up quickly. Fitter and can go one better rising to a winning trip. ROUSING REFRAIN (9) also comes through the PA Guineas and was doing his best work late. If they roll early he will be charging home t the business end. IN THAT MODE (6) is flying and only needs to hold his form to be right there again, though the trip is a new test and may expose him late. JOVIALE (11) was too bad to be true last start but has prior form that stacks up, so he cannot be underestimated.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
7	Last start 6th of 11 at this track in the LR Pt A Gneas on April 11 over 1m, on a slow track, 4 len behind Mcwoody carrying 127lbs at $31. The run before that raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by a neck at Morphettville Parks 0-62 March 21 over 7 ¾f defeating Top Of The Ridge with 123lbs at $9. Terrific chance to atone. 1st Pick 7 Bargain Boy Jockey: Craig Williams Trainer: Phillip Stokes J: Craig Williams T: Phillip Stokes	146	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Last start 6th of 11 at this track in the LR Pt A Gneas on April 11 over 1m, on a slow track, 4 len behind Mcwoody carrying 127lbs at $31. The run before that raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by a neck at Morphettville Parks 0-62 March 21 over 7 ¾f defeating Top Of The Ridge with 123lbs at $9. Terrific chance to atone.
3	At the latest run held ground to the line 2nd of 11 at Gawler Bm62 on April 24 over 7 ½f, 1.75 len behind In That Mode with 137lbs at $10. The race before that 8th of 12 at this track Bm72 on April 11 over 1m, slow going 8 len behind Scandalize carrying 128lbs at $15. Working up to a win. Expected to go well. 2nd Pick 3 Wine Barron Jockey: Todd Pannell Trainer: Michael Hickmott J: Todd Pannell T: Michael Hickmott	134	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis At the latest run held ground to the line 2nd of 11 at Gawler Bm62 on April 24 over 7 ½f, 1.75 len behind In That Mode with 137lbs at $10. The race before that 8th of 12 at this track Bm72 on April 11 over 1m, slow going 8 len behind Scandalize carrying 128lbs at $15. Working up to a win. Expected to go well.
9	Last start 7th of 11 at this track in the LR Pt A Gneas on April 11 over 1m, slow going 5.5 len behind Mcwoody carrying 127lbs at $71. The run before that won by 0.8 len at Balaklava 0-58 April 1 over 1m defeating Rikki Rikkardo with 131lbs at $5.50. Worth another try. 3rd Pick 9 Rousing Refrain Jockey: Jason Holder Trainer: Jon O'connor J: Jason Holder T: Jon O'connor	122	-	-	-	7%	15/1
Analysis Last start 7th of 11 at this track in the LR Pt A Gneas on April 11 over 1m, slow going 5.5 len behind Mcwoody carrying 127lbs at $71. The run before that won by 0.8 len at Balaklava 0-58 April 1 over 1m defeating Rikki Rikkardo with 131lbs at $5.50. Worth another try.

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