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4:55 AM

AU - Pakenham Synthetic - Race 6

Thoroughbred
13 Runners
8f
Benchmark
Synthetic
GOOD
24.4K

All race stats and comments are provided by numberfire. Complex algorithms are used to calculate stats like the power rating. Numberfire picks are provided by horse racing experts that work with numberfire.

Verdict

TWISTED LOVE (8) gets the nod. Two runs back have been good, just finding one better at Mornington before a close up effort at Caulfield Heath. Finds a lovely race third up and should be very hard to hold out. CAELIUS (4) ran a good race first up at Sale over 7f, getting back and running on well in a bunched finish. He was unsuited there given the tempo and could settle closer from the gate up in trip. ICARO (1) is going quite well since a win three back. The draw isn't kind to him but if he can find a back to follow he'll be hard to hold out. TOLPUDDLE (6) was just fair last time out to 1 ¼m at Mornington and has been freshened since. Back in trip should suit him much better. CORONA LAD (7) looks ready to peak third up and has claims.
numberFire Picks
Horse Stats
#/SilkHorse#/HorsePower RatingHigh SpeedWin %Top 3%Win ProbOdds
8
Twisted Love silk

Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 2nd of 12 in a Bm62 at Mornington on September 4 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 0.5 len behind Coronationhercules carrying 129lbs at $17. Last start eased back early on 4th of 7 in a F&M Bm70 at Caulfield Heath on September 16 over 1m, 1.3 len behind All Business with 125lbs at $5. Finds a nice race and maps for a good run.

1st Pick
8

Twisted Love

Jockey: Jamie Mott

Trainer: Gavin Bedggood

J: Jamie Mott

T: Gavin Bedggood

118---23%7/2

Analysis

Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 2nd of 12 in a Bm62 at Mornington on September 4 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 0.5 len behind Coronationhercules carrying 129lbs at $17. Last start eased back early on 4th of 7 in a F&M Bm70 at Caulfield Heath on September 16 over 1m, 1.3 len behind All Business with 125lbs at $5. Finds a nice race and maps for a good run.

4
Caelius silk

Second run back. First-up after eight months 4th of 10 in a Bm62 at Sale on September 13 over 7f, 0.5 len behind Miss Castelvecchio carrying 131lbs at $15. Previously second-up 2nd of 12 in a Mdn-Sw at Moe on November 16 over 1m, 1.3 len behind Taxing with 128lbs at $1.60. Fitter and hard to hold out.

2nd Pick
4

Caelius

Jockey: Ben Allen

Trainer: Peter Gelagotis

J: Ben Allen

T: Peter Gelagotis

143---23%7/2

Analysis

Second run back. First-up after eight months 4th of 10 in a Bm62 at Sale on September 13 over 7f, 0.5 len behind Miss Castelvecchio carrying 131lbs at $15. Previously second-up 2nd of 12 in a Mdn-Sw at Moe on November 16 over 1m, 1.3 len behind Taxing with 128lbs at $1.60. Fitter and hard to hold out.

1
Icaro silk

Comes here off a 29-day let-up. Last start settled back and ran on when 5th of 10 in a Bm62 at Bendigo on September 6 over 1m, on a slow track, 3 len behind Eishaa with 136lbs at $6.50. The start before that ran on strongly from last on the turn, 4th of 13 in a Bm66 at Sandown-Lakeside on August 19 over 1m, slow going 2.5 len behind Gold Chariot with 131lbs at $26. Tough draw but should be running on.

3rd Pick
1

Icaro

Jockey: Luke Cartwright

Trainer: Michael Kent

J: Luke Cartwright

T: Michael Kent

118---15%6/1

Analysis

Comes here off a 29-day let-up. Last start settled back and ran on when 5th of 10 in a Bm62 at Bendigo on September 6 over 1m, on a slow track, 3 len behind Eishaa with 136lbs at $6.50. The start before that ran on strongly from last on the turn, 4th of 13 in a Bm66 at Sandown-Lakeside on August 19 over 1m, slow going 2.5 len behind Gold Chariot with 131lbs at $26. Tough draw but should be running on.

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bleeder

A horse that bleeds due to a ruptured blood vessel during a race or workout. The medication Lasix can fix this problem.

Stewards

The officials watching every race at a meet to enforce the rules.

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A wager involving choosing the first, second, third, and fourth horses in one race in the exact order. A superfecta box involves paying more to ensure they can finish in any order in the top four spots.