AU - Pakenham - Race 4

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

12.4f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

27.4K

VIEW

Verdict

MELEK (1) has earned top billing after justifying odds-on support at Bendigo last start, leading narrowly and holding Yahoo Bar by a nose. He's a horse who can run all day so the big track at 1 ?/16m here will see him roll along and keep kicking. SO BRAVE (2) is a danger third-up, having improved sharply at Sale when fourth to Tishman and he brings proven credentials at this track and distance, plus Daniel Stackhouse back aboard. Ready to peak. FOIX (5) is another with the right profile after finishing within just over a length of Nothingelsematters at Mornington, and he has placed at this trip with Thomas Stockdale retaining a solid association. CHOCOLATE ROYAL (7) was plain at Sale, but his Pakenham Synthetic second in BM62 grade two back reads well enough. CELTIC PARK (6) is knocking on the door and looks a hope as well.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Comes through the Bendigo win in strong order, having led narrowly and fought off Yahoo Bar as an odds-on favourite. The Seymour third before that reads better than the margin after he began awkwardly and covered ground on soft going. He rises from country company to a harder meeting, but his overall record of two wins and two places from five starts is hard to fault, and the 3lbs claim helps him carry the top weight with authority. 1st Pick 1 Melek Jockey: Jabez Johnstone Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Jabez Johnstone T: Ciaron Maher	124	-	-	-	35%	15/8
Analysis Comes through the Bendigo win in strong order, having led narrowly and fought off Yahoo Bar as an odds-on favourite. The Seymour third before that reads better than the margin after he began awkwardly and covered ground on soft going. He rises from country company to a harder meeting, but his overall record of two wins and two places from five starts is hard to fault, and the 3lbs claim helps him carry the top weight with authority.
2	Lifted second-up at Sale when fourth to Tishman, beaten just under two lengths after moving into the race before peaking late. His Ballarat run prior can be treated cautiously after he was eased down with cardiac arrhythmia. Third-up now, proven at this track and distance, and with Daniel Stackhouse returning to a combination that has produced two wins, he has the right staying credentials to go close. 2nd Pick 2 So Brave Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse Trainer: Andrea Leek J: Daniel Stackhouse T: Andrea Leek	111	-	-	-	11%	17/2
Analysis Lifted second-up at Sale when fourth to Tishman, beaten just under two lengths after moving into the race before peaking late. His Ballarat run prior can be treated cautiously after he was eased down with cardiac arrhythmia. Third-up now, proven at this track and distance, and with Daniel Stackhouse returning to a combination that has produced two wins, he has the right staying credentials to go close.
5	Worked into the race at Mornington last start and was beaten just over a length by Nothingelsematters, a sound effort in metro company before dropping to an easier meeting. The Cranbourne seventh prior was not poor, with only three and a half lengths covering him after he lacked a turn of foot. He has placed at this distance and the Stockdale pairing has been productive, making him a genuine winning hope. 3rd Pick 5 Foix Jockey: Thomas Stockdale Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Thomas Stockdale T: Ciaron Maher	110	-	-	-	10%	10/1
Analysis Worked into the race at Mornington last start and was beaten just over a length by Nothingelsematters, a sound effort in metro company before dropping to an easier meeting. The Cranbourne seventh prior was not poor, with only three and a half lengths covering him after he lacked a turn of foot. He has placed at this distance and the Stockdale pairing has been productive, making him a genuine winning hope.

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A race exclusively for horses who have not previously won.

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