AU - Pakenham - Race 4

Thoroughbred

7 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

27.7K

VIEW

Verdict

BELCONY (3) is a leader who returned further improved winning here over 7f and then came back and found one much too good over the same trip on a heavy track. Presents fitter and she's placed 2/3 over this longer trip. A decent chance to bounce in this line-up. TIME ALLOWED (1) is a threat. Just missed twice at Cranbourne and then stepped up to a middle distance there as a $2.35 favourite and was disappointing (vet cleared). Better placed over 1m back in grade and has the blinkers applied for the first time. ALOYSIUS (5) hasn't made an impression since resuming despite racing a $3 favourite over 7 ½f at Ballarat the latest (vet cleared). Rates highly on best figures and can do much better. HEY BELLA (7) improved again, beaten a whisker over 1750 at Geelong as favourite in a 56. Tumbles in weight at this level, and that brings her right into it.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up won by a nose at this track F&M Bm62 March 12 over 7f defeating Simply Outrageous with 131lbs at $14. Second run from a spell 2nd in a small field at this track Bm70 F&M on March 26 over 7f, on heavy track, 4 len behind First Chorus carrying 127lbs at $3.60. Can bounce back. 1st Pick 3 Belcony Jockey: Jake Noonan Trainer: Reece Goodwin J: Jake Noonan T: Reece Goodwin	202	-	-	-	40%	6/4
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up won by a nose at this track F&M Bm62 March 12 over 7f defeating Simply Outrageous with 131lbs at $14. Second run from a spell 2nd in a small field at this track Bm70 F&M on March 26 over 7f, on heavy track, 4 len behind First Chorus carrying 127lbs at $3.60. Can bounce back.
1	Most recently 9th of 11 at Cranbourne Bm70 on March 13 over 1 ¼m, 7 len behind Bergasun carrying 129lbs at $2.35. The race before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 7 at Cranbourne Bm70 on February 13 over 1m, 0.8 len behind Astral Flame with 129lbs at $3.70. Key runner who is expected to go close. 2nd Pick 1 Time Allowed Jockey: Jamie Mott Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young J: Jamie Mott T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young	170	-	-	-	39%	13/8
Analysis Most recently 9th of 11 at Cranbourne Bm70 on March 13 over 1 ¼m, 7 len behind Bergasun carrying 129lbs at $2.35. The race before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 7 at Cranbourne Bm70 on February 13 over 1m, 0.8 len behind Astral Flame with 129lbs at $3.70. Key runner who is expected to go close.
5	Third-up today. First-up 5th of 8 at Ballarat Bm62 on March 10 over 6f, 3.5 len behind Mallee Gold with 132lbs at $8. Last start 6th of 9 at Ballarat 0 - 62 on March 20 over 7 ½f, 9 len behind Treasureflight carrying 132lbs at $3.10. Each-way claims. 3rd Pick 5 Aloysius Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse Trainer: Andrew Noblet J: Daniel Stackhouse T: Andrew Noblet	117	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Third-up today. First-up 5th of 8 at Ballarat Bm62 on March 10 over 6f, 3.5 len behind Mallee Gold with 132lbs at $8. Last start 6th of 9 at Ballarat 0 - 62 on March 20 over 7 ½f, 9 len behind Treasureflight carrying 132lbs at $3.10. Each-way claims.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Filly

A female horse that is four years of age or under.

Tack

The equipment the horse wears, including saddle and bridle. A jockey typically has their own racing saddle, placed on each horse they ride just before the race.

Bug

An apprentice jockey.