AU - Pakenham - Race 4

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

43.5K

VIEW

Verdict

TEN WARRIORS (5) looks well placed. He's nothing if not consistent, notching up 7 minor placings from 10 starts to date without quite breaking the duck. The fresh run at Geelong was good despite being beaten at $2.30 before another close-up effort at Ballarat in a Class 3, both without much luck. He comes back to a maiden now off a little freshen and can get the job done. LOUIS BARTHAS (3) is knocking on the door with two minor placings, solid in a distant third in town two back, close up at Seymour latest. The big track here should suit. BRADFORD (7) resumes having run a good race on debut at Sale over the Winter. He can be an improver with that spell under the belt. BARBARINO (6) is a gelding by Vino Rosso on debut. He's been jumping out well, watch the betting. CELTIC VIVA (10) next best into her second campaign.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Comes off a 41 day let-up. First-up ran on from midfield, 2nd of 9 at Geelong 34&5yo Mdn-Sw on November 26 over 6 ½f, 1.3 len behind Golden Spritz carrying 131lbs at $2.30. Second-up 4th of 12 at Ballarat Cl3-Sw on December 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 0.6 len behind Shystar with 125lbs at $4.60. Finds the right race now. 1st Pick 5 Ten Warriors Jockey: Jamie Mott Trainer: Trevor Rogers J: Jamie Mott T: Trevor Rogers	212	-	-	-	34%	2/1
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Comes off a 41 day let-up. First-up ran on from midfield, 2nd of 9 at Geelong 34&5yo Mdn-Sw on November 26 over 6 ½f, 1.3 len behind Golden Spritz carrying 131lbs at $2.30. Second-up 4th of 12 at Ballarat Cl3-Sw on December 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 0.6 len behind Shystar with 125lbs at $4.60. Finds the right race now.
3	Recent form sound. Most recently 2nd of 13 at Seymour Mdn-Sw on December 28 over 6 ½f, 1.0 len behind Itazura carrying 131lbs at $3.40. The start before that 3rd of 12 at Sandown-Lakeside Mdn-Sw on December 10 over 6f, 5.5 len behind Olivia Rose carrying 131lbs at $9. Ready to win. 2nd Pick 3 Louis Barthas Jockey: John Allen Trainer: Nick Ryan J: John Allen T: Nick Ryan	127	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Recent form sound. Most recently 2nd of 13 at Seymour Mdn-Sw on December 28 over 6 ½f, 1.0 len behind Itazura carrying 131lbs at $3.40. The start before that 3rd of 12 at Sandown-Lakeside Mdn-Sw on December 10 over 6f, 5.5 len behind Olivia Rose carrying 131lbs at $9. Ready to win.
7	Resuming from a lengthy break. Only one run when 2nd of 14 at Sale 2yo Mdn-Sw on July 31 over 6f, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Best Of The Best with 128lbs at $8. Can improve sharply this time around. 3rd Pick 7 Bradford Jockey: Luke Currie Trainer: Shane Nichols & Hayden Black J: Luke Currie T: Shane Nichols & Hayden Black	77	-	-	-	12%	15/2
Analysis Resuming from a lengthy break. Only one run when 2nd of 14 at Sale 2yo Mdn-Sw on July 31 over 6f, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Best Of The Best with 128lbs at $8. Can improve sharply this time around.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Filly

A female horse that is four years of age or under.

Exacta

A bet selecting the first and second horses in a race in the correct order. An exacta box refers to paying a little more to ensure they can finish in either order.

Claiming Race

A race in which horses are entered for a certain price, or claiming tag, which is also their sales price. An owner can claim any horse entered for the tag before the race begins, and owns them as soon as the gates open.