AU - Pakenham Synthetic - Race 4

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

Benchmark

Synthetic

GOOD

28.3K

VIEW

Verdict

LAKE FOREST (4) is flying this time in with two wins from as may starts, both on this surface for the new yard. He handled the step from 5f to 6f last time with a tough win as an odds-on favourite and gets every chance to keep the ball rolling from a good gate. MISS MARANDA (7) tackled a stronger race first up at Flemington and got a long way back, passing a few late. Jamie Melham goes on here from a much better gate and she can improve quickly. TAKEKO (6) has just been fair this time in but is right up to these at her best and can roll forward. PRINCE OF BROOKY (9) tried hard behind Lake Forest last time, he maps well and should go close again. STEEL MOVE (1) is better than recent runs would suggest and this grade suits.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 2 len at this track on June 15 over 5f defeating Mafee carrying 134lbs at $2.15. Last start favourite, won by a nose at this track on July 20 over 6f defeating Prince Of Brooky carrying 130lbs at $1.85. Racing well. Flying and sets up to win again. 1st Pick 4 Lake Forest Jockey: Lachlan Neindorf Trainer: Peter Gelagotis J: Lachlan Neindorf T: Peter Gelagotis	165	-	-	-	35%	15/8
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 2 len at this track on June 15 over 5f defeating Mafee carrying 134lbs at $2.15. Last start favourite, won by a nose at this track on July 20 over 6f defeating Prince Of Brooky carrying 130lbs at $1.85. Racing well. Flying and sets up to win again.
7	Second-up. First-up after five months from last on the turn 10th of 14 at Flemington on July 18 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind Salizou carrying 119lbs at $26. Previously second-up 4th of 10 at Mornington on December 17 over 6f, 2.25 len behind Toy Queen with 126lbs at $3.50. Should do much better here. 2nd Pick 7 Miss Maranda Jockey: Jamie Melham Trainer: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman J: Jamie Melham T: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman	127	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Second-up. First-up after five months from last on the turn 10th of 14 at Flemington on July 18 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind Salizou carrying 119lbs at $26. Previously second-up 4th of 10 at Mornington on December 17 over 6f, 2.25 len behind Toy Queen with 126lbs at $3.50. Should do much better here.
6	At the latest run faded in the straight 9th of 11 at Flemington on August 1 over 7f, 6 len behind Stage 'N' Screen with 131lbs at $8.50. The race before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 10 at Caulfield on July 25 over 6f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Custom with 132lbs at $5.50. Back in class and can improve. 3rd Pick 6 Takeko Jockey: Jordan Childs Trainer: Grahame Begg J: Jordan Childs T: Grahame Begg	168	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis At the latest run faded in the straight 9th of 11 at Flemington on August 1 over 7f, 6 len behind Stage 'N' Screen with 131lbs at $8.50. The race before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 10 at Caulfield on July 25 over 6f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Custom with 132lbs at $5.50. Back in class and can improve.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Yielding

A rain-soaked turf condition often producing a slick or heavy course and slower finish times.

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.