AU - Pakenham - Race 3

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 6

32.1K

VIEW

Verdict

HOLDING CAPTIVE (5) looks well placed off a most encouraging debut at Geelong, well supported there and just finding one narrowly better after leading for most of the race. He'll be better for that experience and the inside draw should see him straight to the top again. BLANKFIELD (3) resumes having placed in all four runs last campaign, showing good ability with a few close-up finishes. He can be an improver this time around and will take some beating fresh. BRAEMAR HILL (2) is a gelding by Earthlight who debuts for the Stokes yard. He's looked good at the jumpouts and has been met with early support on his home deck, very wary. JENNI POPPINS (10) is off a fairly long spell having run well on debut. Watch the market for a lead with her. ADIRA RIVER (9) resumes and could sneak into the minor money.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Was well-supported at debut, tried to lead throughout but was claimed late 2nd of 8 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on March 22 over 6f, nose behind Fiveminutewarning with 130lbs at $2.50. Well placed to go one better. 1st Pick 5 Holding Captive Jockey: Ethan Brown Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Ethan Brown T: Ciaron Maher	201	-	-	-	45%	5/4
Analysis Was well-supported at debut, tried to lead throughout but was claimed late 2nd of 8 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on March 22 over 6f, nose behind Fiveminutewarning with 130lbs at $2.50. Well placed to go one better.
3	Resuming after a 12 weeks break. Finished off last preparation third of 9 at Cranbourne 3yo Mdn-Sw January 22 over 7f, 1.3 len behind Nostro Roccia with 128lbs at $3.60. On debut second of 9 at Cranbourne 3yo Mdn-Sw December 5 over 6f, 0.8 len behind Talladega Girl carrying 128lbs at $13. Can improve this time in and will take beating. 2nd Pick 3 Blankfield Jockey: Jamie Mott Trainer: Alexander Rae J: Jamie Mott T: Alexander Rae	158	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Resuming after a 12 weeks break. Finished off last preparation third of 9 at Cranbourne 3yo Mdn-Sw January 22 over 7f, 1.3 len behind Nostro Roccia with 128lbs at $3.60. On debut second of 9 at Cranbourne 3yo Mdn-Sw December 5 over 6f, 0.8 len behind Talladega Girl carrying 128lbs at $13. Can improve this time in and will take beating.
2	Gelding by Earthlight on debut. Won a jump-out at Pakenham on April 7. Strong chance to break through. Looks all set to run well. 3rd Pick 2 Braemar Hill Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Phillip Stokes J: Non Runner T: Phillip Stokes	79	-	-	-	1%	1000/1
Analysis Gelding by Earthlight on debut. Won a jump-out at Pakenham on April 7. Strong chance to break through. Looks all set to run well.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Breeder

The owner of a horse’s dam – or mother - at the time a horse is foaled.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Allowance Race

A race with non-claiming conditions set by the racing secretary. They are meant to be a step down from stakes racing.