AU - Pakenham - Race 1

Thoroughbred

6 Runners

12.4f

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 5

31.7K

VIEW

Verdict

SOUL MISTRESS (5) is the one with relative upside that can take this out. She lines up for her fifth career start, close up at Moe two back then solid again when outsprinted in a small field at Sale, perhaps unsuited back in trip there. Now she gets out to 1 ?/16m and can improve enough to win. PHOENICIAN (1) has had plenty of chances, now a 23 start maiden having placed in 11 of his past 14 starts, including his past 6. He's certainly a frustrating conveyance but will give a sight as usual. ASHINA (6) is a 3yo filly in her maiden campaign, doing well to place out to 1 ?m at Seymour last time. Further ground here should only assist. ST DOMINIC (2) has been running in the same races as Phoenician and has minor claims again, similarly to RAPIDO RIVER (3).

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	At the latest run 3rd in a small field at Sale Mdn-Sw on February 11 over 1 ¹/16m, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Somethingsostrong carrying 127lbs at $7. The run before that 5th of 14 at Moe Mdn-Sw on January 25 over 1 ¼m, 2.5 len behind Tassadar carrying 127lbs at $4.40. Has upside and can go on with it. 1st Pick 5 Soul Mistress Jockey: Zac Spain Trainer: Ken & Kasey Keys J: Zac Spain T: Ken & Kasey Keys	107	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis At the latest run 3rd in a small field at Sale Mdn-Sw on February 11 over 1 ¹/16m, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Somethingsostrong carrying 127lbs at $7. The run before that 5th of 14 at Moe Mdn-Sw on January 25 over 1 ¼m, 2.5 len behind Tassadar carrying 127lbs at $4.40. Has upside and can go on with it.
1	Recent form sound. At the latest run raced on the pace when 2nd of 7 at Werribee Mdn-Sw on February 17 over 1 ¹¹/16m, 3.5 len behind High Heeled with 131lbs at $3. The run before that sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 8 at this track Mdn-Sw on February 5 over 1/16m, 5 len behind Diggers Aim with 131lbs at $7.50. Well placed. Keeps racing well and will go close again. 2nd Pick 1 Phoenician Jockey: Teo Nugent Trainer: Ern Ewert J: Teo Nugent T: Ern Ewert	148	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Recent form sound. At the latest run raced on the pace when 2nd of 7 at Werribee Mdn-Sw on February 17 over 1 ¹¹/16m, 3.5 len behind High Heeled with 131lbs at $3. The run before that sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 8 at this track Mdn-Sw on February 5 over 1/16m, 5 len behind Diggers Aim with 131lbs at $7.50. Well placed. Keeps racing well and will go close again.
6	Form hard to fault. Most recently 3rd of 13 at Seymour Mdn-Sw on February 20 over 1m, 6 len behind I Belong with 126lbs at $12. The race before that 3rd of 11 at Yarra Valley Mdn-Sw on February 7 over 1 ³/16m, 3 len behind First Thought carrying 126lbs at $4. Will take holding out once more. 3rd Pick 6 Ashina Jockey: Jordan Childs Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young J: Jordan Childs T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young	205	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Form hard to fault. Most recently 3rd of 13 at Seymour Mdn-Sw on February 20 over 1m, 6 len behind I Belong with 126lbs at $12. The race before that 3rd of 11 at Yarra Valley Mdn-Sw on February 7 over 1 ³/16m, 3 len behind First Thought carrying 126lbs at $4. Will take holding out once more.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.

Objection

Claim of foul lodged by a jockey for perceived dangerous or illegal riding by a rival.

Fast

A dry dirt track that is typically an ideal racing surface.