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7:15 AM

AU - Pakenham - Race 1

Thoroughbred
7 Runners
8f
Class 1
Turf
SOFT 6
28.6K

All race stats and comments are provided by numberfire. Complex algorithms are used to calculate stats like the power rating. Numberfire picks are provided by horse racing experts that work with numberfire.

Verdict

PARVENU (5) didn't take long to break her maiden, rising to 7f, settling back off a strong tempo and rounding her rivals up with ease to score by four lengths. Off that, the rise to 1m should only suit better and the bigger track here will also play into her hands. M'LADY ROSE (7) ran a solid race first up at Sandown Lakeside behind Gold Coast Belle who has since won impressively in Saturday grade. She got home well enough there having also chased home star filly Sheza Alibi second up last time in. She should relish 1m and take beating. MAN OF THE SEA (1) has been very good in all three runs this campaign, sticking on well behind a subsequent Group winner Mcwoody last time. He's fit and will be up on speed. PULA (6) pulled up with issues last time and can do much better but is wearing a bit thin while SURPERB FROST (3) is going well and in the minor mix.
numberFire Picks
Horse Stats
#/SilkHorse#/HorsePower RatingHigh SpeedWin %Top 3%Win ProbOdds
5
Parvenu silk

Had two starts to date. At debut, 10th of 11 at this track Mdn-Sw on March 6 over 6f, 5 len behind Deliberate Ploy with 126lbs at $13. Second-up ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by 4 len at Cranbourne 3yo F Mdn-Sw March 27 over 7f on a rain affected track defeating Savannah Queen carrying 126lbs at $3.70. Dominant last time and can go right on with it to a mile.

1st Pick
5

Parvenu

Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse

Trainer: Grahame Begg

J: Daniel Stackhouse

T: Grahame Begg

156---35%15/8

Analysis

Had two starts to date. At debut, 10th of 11 at this track Mdn-Sw on March 6 over 6f, 5 len behind Deliberate Ploy with 126lbs at $13. Second-up ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by 4 len at Cranbourne 3yo F Mdn-Sw March 27 over 7f on a rain affected track defeating Savannah Queen carrying 126lbs at $3.70. Dominant last time and can go right on with it to a mile.

7
M'lady Rose silk

Second-up. First-up after five months tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 7 at Sandown-Lakeside 3yo F Bm64 on March 25 over 7f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Gold Coast Belle with 131lbs at $5.50. Previously second-up 8th of 12 at Flemington in the G3 Vanity on November 1 over 7f, 5 len behind Sheza Alibi with 123lbs at $21. Through a good race and this suits.

2nd Pick
7

M'lady Rose

Jockey: John Allen

Trainer: Tony & Calvin Mcevoy

J: John Allen

T: Tony & Calvin Mcevoy

194---29%5/2

Analysis

Second-up. First-up after five months tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 7 at Sandown-Lakeside 3yo F Bm64 on March 25 over 7f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Gold Coast Belle with 131lbs at $5.50. Previously second-up 8th of 12 at Flemington in the G3 Vanity on November 1 over 7f, 5 len behind Sheza Alibi with 123lbs at $21. Through a good race and this suits.

1
Man Of The Sea silk

Recent form sound. At the latest run rolled along in front before being edged out 3rd of 7 at Sandown-Lakeside 3yo Bm64 on March 25 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Mcwoody carrying 130lbs at $9.50. The race before that won by 0.5 len at Kilmore Mdn-Sw March 6 over 7 ¼f defeating Wonboyn with 130lbs at $5. Going well and will take catching.

3rd Pick
1

Man Of The Sea

Jockey: Non Runner

Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr

J: Non Runner

T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr

131---17%5/1

Analysis

Recent form sound. At the latest run rolled along in front before being edged out 3rd of 7 at Sandown-Lakeside 3yo Bm64 on March 25 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Mcwoody carrying 130lbs at $9.50. The race before that won by 0.5 len at Kilmore Mdn-Sw March 6 over 7 ¼f defeating Wonboyn with 130lbs at $5. Going well and will take catching.

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bug

An apprentice jockey.

Dead Heat

Two or more horses finishing so close at the wire, that they were unable to be separated on a photo finish and deemed to have tied.

Silks

The colorful jacket and cap worn by a jockey which features the design of the owner.