AU - Pakenham - Race 1

Thoroughbred

5 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 8

26.0K

VIEW

Verdict

GROUND CONTROL (2) goes on top. He's a lightly raced 3yo who won dominantly on debut at Sale, resuming with a good run in a BM68 at Morphettville when third, giving away 11lbs to the smart winner. Fitter for that, he maps for every chance and should really be taking care of these. THE OPPORTUNIST (5) was well beaten fresh at Caulfield Heath after settling back in the field. He showed ability last time in and should strip fitter now rising to a suitable 6f. MUST BE SAIN (4) resumes for his second campaign. He finished last in a hot BM64 before a spell won by Planet Red who has placed in a G1 Caulfield Guineas since. He can improve into this campaign. ASTARI (3) resumed with a tidy maiden win at Traralgon first up with scope to improve. TEMPT THE GODS (1) will find this much easier than the Flemington run fresh.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Second-up. Promising on debut as favourite, won by 2.75 len at Sale 2yo Mdn-Sw May 28 over 5 ½f on a rain affected track defeating Burlington Arcade with 128lbs at $3.30. Returned from break 3rd of 8 at Morphettville 3yo Bm68 on November 1 over 5 ½f, 0.9 len behind Grinzinger Champ with 128lbs at $2.80. Rates highly. 1st Pick 2 Ground Control Jockey: Lachlan Neindorf Trainer: Phillip Stokes J: Lachlan Neindorf T: Phillip Stokes	206	-	-	-	56%	4/5
Analysis Second-up. Promising on debut as favourite, won by 2.75 len at Sale 2yo Mdn-Sw May 28 over 5 ½f on a rain affected track defeating Burlington Arcade with 128lbs at $3.30. Returned from break 3rd of 8 at Morphettville 3yo Bm68 on November 1 over 5 ½f, 0.9 len behind Grinzinger Champ with 128lbs at $2.80. Rates highly.
5	Second run back. First-up after six months 6th of 8 at Caulfield Heath 3yo F Bm64 on November 12 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Blaze Away with 131lbs at $7. Previously second-up 2nd of 11 at this track 2yo Mdn-Sw on April 17 over 6f, 0.8 len behind Maldini with 128lbs at $15. Strips fitter and expected to feature. 2nd Pick 5 The Opportunist Jockey: Celine Gaudray Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Celine Gaudray T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	174	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Second run back. First-up after six months 6th of 8 at Caulfield Heath 3yo F Bm64 on November 12 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Blaze Away with 131lbs at $7. Previously second-up 2nd of 11 at this track 2yo Mdn-Sw on April 17 over 6f, 0.8 len behind Maldini with 128lbs at $15. Strips fitter and expected to feature.
4	Resuming after a three-and-a-half months break. Not seen since he finished last in a small field at Sandown-Lakeside Bm64 August 13 over 6f, soft track, 3.5 len behind Planet Red carrying 131lbs at $26. On debut won by long-neck Ballarat Synthetic 2yo Mdn-Sw July 27 over 5 ½f defeating Lady Verity with 128lbs at $12. Respecting. 3rd Pick 4 Must Be Sain Jockey: Jamie Mott Trainer: Shane Nichols & Hayden Black J: Jamie Mott T: Shane Nichols & Hayden Black	105	-	-	-	14%	13/2
Analysis Resuming after a three-and-a-half months break. Not seen since he finished last in a small field at Sandown-Lakeside Bm64 August 13 over 6f, soft track, 3.5 len behind Planet Red carrying 131lbs at $26. On debut won by long-neck Ballarat Synthetic 2yo Mdn-Sw July 27 over 5 ½f defeating Lady Verity with 128lbs at $12. Respecting.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bleeder

A horse that bleeds due to a ruptured blood vessel during a race or workout. The medication Lasix can fix this problem.

Show Wager

Betting on a horse to finish in the first three spots, which pays out the same whether they win or run second or third.

Turf Course

A racetrack made of grass.