AU - Moe - Race 5

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

10.2f

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 10

15.5K

VIEW

Verdict

Wide open. OUTDRIVE (1) has more upside than most and looks close to another win. Placed at 1 ?m latest and has the claim and a low draw. Will be in it for a long way. MAWHERA (3) is another overdue for a win. Coming back in trip three weeks between runs but has placed only try course and distance. Yet to win but has five minors in wet ground and looks a leading chance despite the wide gate. PRINCESS PAINTON (4) was safely held fresh but has good upside and has placed second-up. Extra trip a plus and will be a sharp improver. ABERLUTELY (12) is fitter again and gets chance to find form.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Most recently held ground to the line 3rd of 11 at Bairnsdale Bm56 on August 4 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Opus with 136lbs at $10. Before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 12 at Seymour Bm62 on July 19 over 1 ¼m, on rain affected going, 6 len behind Governor King with 130lbs at $12. Made headway last time. Overdue and expected to take beating. 1st Pick 1 Outdrive Jockey: Sam Kennedy Trainer: Kelvin Southey J: Sam Kennedy T: Kelvin Southey	136	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Most recently held ground to the line 3rd of 11 at Bairnsdale Bm56 on August 4 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Opus with 136lbs at $10. Before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 12 at Seymour Bm62 on July 19 over 1 ¼m, on rain affected going, 6 len behind Governor King with 130lbs at $12. Made headway last time. Overdue and expected to take beating.
3	Most recently 4th of 8 at this track Bm62 on July 21 over 1 ½m, in the wet, 7 len behind Three Reel Roses carrying 123lbs at $4. The race before that 4th of 9 at Mt Gambier Bm60 on July 12 over 1 ½m, in the wet, 4 len behind Idon'tgetit with 130lbs at $15. Overdue and looks well placed this line-up. 2nd Pick 3 Mawhera Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse Trainer: Mick Nolan J: Daniel Stackhouse T: Mick Nolan	87	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Most recently 4th of 8 at this track Bm62 on July 21 over 1 ½m, in the wet, 7 len behind Three Reel Roses carrying 123lbs at $4. The race before that 4th of 9 at Mt Gambier Bm60 on July 12 over 1 ½m, in the wet, 4 len behind Idon'tgetit with 130lbs at $15. Overdue and looks well placed this line-up.
4	Second-up. First-up after four months 9th of 12 at Seymour Bm62 on July 19 over 1m, on rain affected going, 9 len behind One Long Day carrying 127lbs at $8.50. Previously second-up 2nd in a small field at Sale Mdn-Sw on February 11 over 1 ¹/16m, on a slow track, nose behind Somethingsostrong with 127lbs at $2.30. Fitter and looks a big improver. 3rd Pick 4 Princess Painton Jockey: Lachlan Neindorf Trainer: Phillip & Tommy Stokes J: Lachlan Neindorf T: Phillip & Tommy Stokes	146	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Second-up. First-up after four months 9th of 12 at Seymour Bm62 on July 19 over 1m, on rain affected going, 9 len behind One Long Day carrying 127lbs at $8.50. Previously second-up 2nd in a small field at Sale Mdn-Sw on February 11 over 1 ¹/16m, on a slow track, nose behind Somethingsostrong with 127lbs at $2.30. Fitter and looks a big improver.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Across the Board

Refers to betting on a horse to finish first, second, and third to cover any of those scenarios happening during a race

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Dead Heat

Two or more horses finishing so close at the wire, that they were unable to be separated on a photo finish and deemed to have tied.