AU - Geelong - Race 9

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

7.5f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

25.3K

VIEW

Verdict

Two key scratchings this morning leave this one a little thin. TOUXLOVE (11) comes through a strong race at Sandown Hillside when battling away for a sound fourth. The winner there is very good and he should take holding out having been in consistent form of late. PARAMOUNT PLUS (6) has been racing well on the synthetics and maps for every hope from the soft gate. Back to turf but missed a lip in a maiden here first up and should go well. SACRAMENTAL (1) has won two on the bounce, lugging 142lbs at Ballarat Synthetic last time in a tough effort. He can measure up again. JEWEL BAY (4) can mix form but is good enough, as is ISLAND BOY (8) who will find this easier than recent runs.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Second run back. First-up after four months won by a neck in a Bm62 at Sale on August 21 over 6f in soft going defeating Crocodile with 131lbs at $6. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len in a Mdn-Sw at Cranbourne on March 20 over 7f defeating Written Story carrying 130lbs at $1.60. Nice return and can go on with it here. 1st Pick 5 Let It Beel Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman J: Non Runner T: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman	102	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Second run back. First-up after four months won by a neck in a Bm62 at Sale on August 21 over 6f in soft going defeating Crocodile with 131lbs at $6. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len in a Mdn-Sw at Cranbourne on March 20 over 7f defeating Written Story carrying 130lbs at $1.60. Nice return and can go on with it here.
10	Raced twice to date. When well in the market at debut, 3rd of 11 in a Mdn-Sw at Pakenham Synthetic on August 3 over 7f, 4 len behind Earthing carrying 131lbs at $1.75. Second-up favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by a long-neck in a Mdn-Sw at Pakenham Synthetic on August 24 over 7f defeating Aubaine carrying 131lbs at $2.90. Racing well. Can build on that impressive start to his career. 2nd Pick 10 Just Desserts Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Non Runner T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	117	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Raced twice to date. When well in the market at debut, 3rd of 11 in a Mdn-Sw at Pakenham Synthetic on August 3 over 7f, 4 len behind Earthing carrying 131lbs at $1.75. Second-up favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by a long-neck in a Mdn-Sw at Pakenham Synthetic on August 24 over 7f defeating Aubaine carrying 131lbs at $2.90. Racing well. Can build on that impressive start to his career.
11	Recent form sound. Most recently 4th of 8 in a Bm74 at Sandown-Hillside on August 22 over 7f, on heavy track, 5 len behind Buccleuch with 117lbs at $12. The run before that 4th of 10 in a Bm66 at Sandown-Hillside on July 29 over 7 ½f, on heavy track, 5 len behind Stay Silent with 126lbs at $4.40. Out of a strong race and can do much better. 3rd Pick 11 Touxlove Jockey: Luke Currie Trainer: Clayton Douglas J: Luke Currie T: Clayton Douglas	91	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Recent form sound. Most recently 4th of 8 in a Bm74 at Sandown-Hillside on August 22 over 7f, on heavy track, 5 len behind Buccleuch with 117lbs at $12. The run before that 4th of 10 in a Bm66 at Sandown-Hillside on July 29 over 7 ½f, on heavy track, 5 len behind Stay Silent with 126lbs at $4.40. Out of a strong race and can do much better.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Fast

A dry dirt track that is typically an ideal racing surface.

Across the Board

Refers to betting on a horse to finish first, second, and third to cover any of those scenarios happening during a race

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.