AU - Geelong - Race 5

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

29.3K

VIEW

Verdict

Siding with UPSTAGE (9) who resumed at Kyneton and ran a credible race, no match for the winner but finding the line strongly for second with improvement to come. She's lightly raced and should relish getting to 7f here, expect she takes plenty of holding out. SILKY SETH (7) was better last start at Ballarat when sticking on for third, out to 7 ½f there at Ballarat. He'll roll forward with Lane on and that could prove the difference. BRUTAL TEMPO (4) ran well on debut at Yarra Valley, running on well for a narrow third. Up in trip on a wider track here should suit nicely. TREBILCO (3) was just fair fresh at Pakenham but was right in the market there and could be a sharp improver. SIMPLY GOLD (8) resumes having shown some ability over further last time in, he can sprint well.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
9	Second run back. First-up after six months 2nd of 9 at Kyneton 3yo F Mdn-Sw on March 13 over 6f, 2.75 len behind Milos Filos carrying 126lbs at $4.40. Previously second-up 8th of 12 at Sandown-Hillside 3yo Mdn-Sw on September 24 over 6 ½f, 3.5 len behind Obucci carrying 123lbs at $7.50. Can improve and goes close. 1st Pick 9 Upstage Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse Trainer: Grahame Begg J: Daniel Stackhouse T: Grahame Begg	167	-	-	-	36%
Analysis Second run back. First-up after six months 2nd of 9 at Kyneton 3yo F Mdn-Sw on March 13 over 6f, 2.75 len behind Milos Filos carrying 126lbs at $4.40. Previously second-up 8th of 12 at Sandown-Hillside 3yo Mdn-Sw on September 24 over 6 ½f, 3.5 len behind Obucci carrying 123lbs at $7.50. Can improve and goes close.
7	Last start raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 7 at Ballarat Mdn-Sw on March 10 over 7 ½f, 2 len behind Antalian carrying 130lbs at $4. The run before that 8th of 14 at Seymour Mdn-Sw on February 20 over 6 ½f, 4 len behind Vim Vitae carrying 130lbs at $3.40. Can improve again. Among the top chances. 2nd Pick 7 Silky Seth Jockey: Damian Lane Trainer: Danny O'brien J: Damian Lane T: Danny O'brien	157	-	-	-	29%
Analysis Last start raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 7 at Ballarat Mdn-Sw on March 10 over 7 ½f, 2 len behind Antalian carrying 130lbs at $4. The run before that 8th of 14 at Seymour Mdn-Sw on February 20 over 6 ½f, 4 len behind Vim Vitae carrying 130lbs at $3.40. Can improve again. Among the top chances.
4	Was well-supported at debut, ran on strongly from last on the turn, 3rd of 9 at Yarra Valley Mdn-Sw on March 15 over 6f, head behind Divine Empress with 130lbs at $3.90. Rates highly and can go to the next level. 3rd Pick 4 Brutal Tempo Jockey: Brad Rawiller Trainer: Mark & Levi Kavanagh J: Brad Rawiller T: Mark & Levi Kavanagh	174	-	-	-	29%
Analysis Was well-supported at debut, ran on strongly from last on the turn, 3rd of 9 at Yarra Valley Mdn-Sw on March 15 over 6f, head behind Divine Empress with 130lbs at $3.90. Rates highly and can go to the next level.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Show Wager

Betting on a horse to finish in the first three spots, which pays out the same whether they win or run second or third.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Objection

Claim of foul lodged by a jockey for perceived dangerous or illegal riding by a rival.