AU - Flemington - Race 8

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

103.9K

VIEW

Verdict

This is another fantastic race with plenty of angles. One angle is that DUCHESS ZOU (7) is a rock hard fit mare in flying form. She came right away to win the Leilani Final here last time and will carry just 117lbs for Jabez Johnstone who continued his red-hot form during the week. As long as the ground is soft, she'll land in a great spot and take plenty of beating. Very wary of the resuming SASS APPEAL (10) who won four in a row over the Summer. She got all favours but smashed a G1 winner in Ole Dancer over this route before a dominant G2 Kewney Stakes win over a mile. She gets in light and is very progressive, it'll just be how forward she is and what price you want to take, under $3 is possibly on the short side. RISE AT DAWN (2) looks a big chance. The fresh run was tough and he'll strip much fitter up on the speed. COEUR VOLANTE (1) is flying but the weight is catching up.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
7	Form hard to fault. At the latest run favourite, ran on from midfield and won by 1.75 len at this track Leilani Final July 4 over 7f on a rain affected track defeating Stylish with 125lbs at $4.20. The run before that tried to lead throughout but was claimed late 3rd of 13 at this track F&M Bm90 on June 20 over 7f, on a slow track, 0.9 len behind Stylish with 123lbs at $5.50. Flying and finds another ideal race, go close. 1st Pick 7 Duchess Zou Jockey: Jabez Johnstone Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Jabez Johnstone T: Ciaron Maher	211	-	-	-	27%	Scratched
Analysis Form hard to fault. At the latest run favourite, ran on from midfield and won by 1.75 len at this track Leilani Final July 4 over 7f on a rain affected track defeating Stylish with 125lbs at $4.20. The run before that tried to lead throughout but was claimed late 3rd of 13 at this track F&M Bm90 on June 20 over 7f, on a slow track, 0.9 len behind Stylish with 123lbs at $5.50. Flying and finds another ideal race, go close.
10	Racing first-up today. Finished off last preparation winning won by 2.75 len this track G2 Kewney March 7 over 1m defeating Pillow Fight with 123lbs at $2.35. On debut second of 13 at Sandown-Lakeside 3yo F Mdn-Sw December 10 over 6f, 0.5 len behind Karren carrying 126lbs at $26. Very good filly who gets in light, huge chance. 2nd Pick 10 Sass Appeal Jockey: Logan Bates Trainer: Danny O'brien J: Logan Bates T: Danny O'brien	107	-	-	-	80%
Analysis Racing first-up today. Finished off last preparation winning won by 2.75 len this track G2 Kewney March 7 over 1m defeating Pillow Fight with 123lbs at $2.35. On debut second of 13 at Sandown-Lakeside 3yo F Mdn-Sw December 10 over 6f, 0.5 len behind Karren carrying 126lbs at $26. Very good filly who gets in light, huge chance.
2	Second-up. First-up after five months 2nd of 11 at Caulfield Bm100 on July 11 over 7f, on a slow track, head behind Coeur Volante with 132lbs at $12. Previously second-up 2nd of 10 at Rosehill in the G2 Shannon on September 27 over 7 ½f, 2.25 len behind Waterford carrying 125lbs at $2. Lovely return and will be hard to run down. 3rd Pick 2 Rise At Dawn Jockey: Luke Cartwright Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Luke Cartwright T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	115	-	-	-	23%
Analysis Second-up. First-up after five months 2nd of 11 at Caulfield Bm100 on July 11 over 7f, on a slow track, head behind Coeur Volante with 132lbs at $12. Previously second-up 2nd of 10 at Rosehill in the G2 Shannon on September 27 over 7 ½f, 2.25 len behind Waterford carrying 125lbs at $2. Lovely return and will be hard to run down.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.

Yielding

A rain-soaked turf condition often producing a slick or heavy course and slower finish times.

Condition Book

A list of upcoming races issued by the racing secretary, where the conditions of races to be run over the next few weeks are written.