AU - Flemington - Race 7

Thoroughbred

13 Runners

Unknown

Turf

SOFT 7

138.0K

VIEW

Verdict

Onto our feature of the day and AL DUCA (3) looks the one to beat. He'd put up two strong winning performances through the Winter then had a tough run on fast ground at Bendigo and dropped out. Seven weeks into last time over this route and he stuck on very bravely so imagine he'll have the most improvement to come and he gets a lovely run on speed here. JIMMY THE BEAR (1) won this last year. He was okay without threatening in the key lead up (which he also won last year) but gets the key switch with Billy Egan replacing the apprentice. Don't love barrier one but his best is still the best in this field and write off the champ at your peril. SEAFALL (6) won the key lead up here in a good effort, she's flying on soft ground and should take beating. ELECTRIC IMPULSE (8) beat home Seafall in the Swan Hill Cup last time and should be ready to peak third up, respecting. HIGHLIGHTS (10) next best.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
3	Most recently held ground to the line 2nd of 11 at this track Davidbourke on June 20 over 1m, slow going nose behind Seafall with 129lbs at $4.80. The start before that ran second last of 12 at Bendigo in the LR Golden Mile on May 2 over 1m, 7 len behind Von Hauke with 126lbs at $4.40. Fitter off that and sets up beautifully on speed. 1st Pick 3 Al Duca Jockey: Craig Williams Trainer: Clayton Douglas J: Craig Williams T: Clayton Douglas	167	-	-	-	46%
Analysis Most recently held ground to the line 2nd of 11 at this track Davidbourke on June 20 over 1m, slow going nose behind Seafall with 129lbs at $4.80. The start before that ran second last of 12 at Bendigo in the LR Golden Mile on May 2 over 1m, 7 len behind Von Hauke with 126lbs at $4.40. Fitter off that and sets up beautifully on speed.
1	At the latest run 5th of 11 at this track Davidbourke on June 20 over 1m, slow going 3 len behind Seafall carrying 129lbs at $4.80. The run before that favourite, settled well back, won by a nose at Caulfield Hcp May 30 over 1m in the wet defeating Cartoon Graveyard carrying 128lbs at $8. Won this last year and will be very hard to hold out late. 2nd Pick 1 Jimmy The Bear Jockey: Billy Egan Trainer: Patrick Payne J: Billy Egan T: Patrick Payne	193	-	-	-	13%
Analysis At the latest run 5th of 11 at this track Davidbourke on June 20 over 1m, slow going 3 len behind Seafall carrying 129lbs at $4.80. The run before that favourite, settled well back, won by a nose at Caulfield Hcp May 30 over 1m in the wet defeating Cartoon Graveyard carrying 128lbs at $8. Won this last year and will be very hard to hold out late.
6	At the latest run won by a nose at this track Davidbourke June 20 over 1m in soft going defeating Al Duca with 117lbs at $5.50. The race before that 6th of 14 at Swan Hill Sw H Cup on June 7 over 1m, slow going 1.75 len behind Cartoon Graveyard with 119lbs at $7. Won key lead up and gets in well again, go close. 3rd Pick 6 Seafall Jockey: Jackson Radley Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Jackson Radley T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	114	-	-	-	17%
Analysis At the latest run won by a nose at this track Davidbourke June 20 over 1m in soft going defeating Al Duca with 117lbs at $5.50. The race before that 6th of 14 at Swan Hill Sw H Cup on June 7 over 1m, slow going 1.75 len behind Cartoon Graveyard with 119lbs at $7. Won key lead up and gets in well again, go close.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Workout

A workout is a timed sprint over varying distances prior to a race, meant to get a horse fit enough for competition.

Also Eligible

A horse that is entered but does not draw into the body of the field due to too many entries, and thus is not permitted to start unless there are enough scratches to shrink the field size.

Scratch

A horse is a scratch when injury or other necessity causes it to be withdrawn from the race.