AU - Flemington - Race 7

Thoroughbred

18 Runners

12.4f

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

2111.2K

VIEW

Verdict

The G1 Victoria Derby, in all of its 1 ?/16m glory. Barriers can be key from this start and have us siding with CORMIER (1) who backs up from the G1 Spring Champion at Randwick last week. He was allowed to roll along there and stayed on strongly for third behind two top fillies, he should stay this well and prove very hard to catch. STORMY MARCO (2) has had things against his past two, very good from back in the field in the Spring Champion last week. Gets J-Mac on now to help offset the tricky gate and will be charging home. CIGNETTI (8) might be the best value for exotics. He just had to wait for a run in the G3 Caulfield Classic and would've won in another stride. He can roll forward and run well. SKUA (7) looks an out-and-out stayer. He was beaten at the 1 ½f last week and just kept finding behind True Rebel. Fancy he can turn the tables up in trip. KING SNITZ (4) won the Caulfield Classic and should stay as well.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
1	Recent form sound. Last start led but faded 3rd of 9 in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick on October 24 over 1 ¼m, 1.75 len behind Proxima Dea with 125lbs at $16. The run before that 4th of 10 in the G3 Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on October 10 over 1m, long-neck behind Proxima Dea with 125lbs at $4.20. Can improve again. Will stay all day and sets up beautifully from the gate. 1st Pick 1 Cormier Jockey: Jamie Mott Trainer: Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich J: Jamie Mott T: Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich	195	-	-	-	15%
Analysis Recent form sound. Last start led but faded 3rd of 9 in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick on October 24 over 1 ¼m, 1.75 len behind Proxima Dea with 125lbs at $16. The run before that 4th of 10 in the G3 Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on October 10 over 1m, long-neck behind Proxima Dea with 125lbs at $4.20. Can improve again. Will stay all day and sets up beautifully from the gate.
2	Last start 4th of 9 in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick on October 24 over 1 ¼m, 3 len behind Proxima Dea carrying 125lbs at $10. The run before that got back early 5th of 10 in the G3 Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on October 10 over 1m, 0.5 len behind Proxima Dea with 125lbs at $6.50. Big run last week, J-Mac offsets the gate and he'll be very hard to beat. 2nd Pick 2 Stormy Marco Jockey: James Mcdonald Trainer: Chris Waller J: James Mcdonald T: Chris Waller	173	-	-	-	34%
Analysis Last start 4th of 9 in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick on October 24 over 1 ¼m, 3 len behind Proxima Dea carrying 125lbs at $10. The run before that got back early 5th of 10 in the G3 Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on October 10 over 1m, 0.5 len behind Proxima Dea with 125lbs at $6.50. Big run last week, J-Mac offsets the gate and he'll be very hard to beat.
8	Racing well recently. Last start 3rd of 8 in the G3 Caulfield Classic on October 17 over 1 ¼m, head behind King Snitz with 126lbs at $6.50. The run before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 12 in the LR Super Impose Stakes at this track on October 3 over 1m, on heavy track, 3.5 len behind Miss Waititi with 126lbs at $8. Wins in another stride last time, looks a solid chance. 3rd Pick 8 Cignetti Jockey: William Pike Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young J: William Pike T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young	100	-	-	-	10%
Analysis Racing well recently. Last start 3rd of 8 in the G3 Caulfield Classic on October 17 over 1 ¼m, head behind King Snitz with 126lbs at $6.50. The run before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 12 in the LR Super Impose Stakes at this track on October 3 over 1m, on heavy track, 3.5 len behind Miss Waititi with 126lbs at $8. Wins in another stride last time, looks a solid chance.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Breeder

The owner of a horse’s dam – or mother - at the time a horse is foaled.

Superfecta

A wager involving choosing the first, second, third, and fourth horses in one race in the exact order. A superfecta box involves paying more to ensure they can finish in any order in the top four spots.

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.