AU - Flemington - Race 7

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

13.9f

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

216.9K

VIEW

Verdict

Fascinating edition of the Andrew Ramsden with a Melbourne Cup slot up for grabs. ZAKOUMA (10) had been making his way through the grades nicely before last start as the $2.05 favourite, getting much further back than ideal, dashing home well under the circumstances. Quickly to 1 ¾m but he should handle it and whilst not well in at the set weights, he profiles as if he'll make the grade sooner rather than later. THE WESTERN FRONT (9) is in great form over these staying trips, coming away to win well here over 1 ?/16m last start. He'll relish the 1 ¾m and take beating again. The interesting one is last start G1 Sydney Cup winner CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (1) who led at a crawl and held them off at 50/1. He's got the class but how much he regresses will be interesting. NEWLOOK (4) was okay in the Sydney Cup having won nicely prior. Fancy he wants wet ground but he can still win. AMERICAN WOLF (13) won the St Leger over this route as a 3yo and will stay all day.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
10	Most recently eased back early on 7th of 14 at this track Bm100 on April 25 over 1 ¼m, 4 len behind Too Darn Discreet with 117lbs at $2.05. The race before that favourite, settled well back, won by 2.75 len at this track Bm84 March 28 over 1 ¼m in heavy going defeating Alder carrying 119lbs at $2.30. Should relish the trip now and can bounce back. 1st Pick 10 Zakouma Jockey: Jordan Childs Trainer: Grahame Begg J: Jordan Childs T: Grahame Begg	130	-	-	-	25%
Analysis Most recently eased back early on 7th of 14 at this track Bm100 on April 25 over 1 ¼m, 4 len behind Too Darn Discreet with 117lbs at $2.05. The race before that favourite, settled well back, won by 2.75 len at this track Bm84 March 28 over 1 ¼m in heavy going defeating Alder carrying 119lbs at $2.30. Should relish the trip now and can bounce back.
9	Chasing a hat-trick. Last start won by 2 len at this track Bm84 Hcp April 25 over 1/16m defeating Xtra Rush with 126lbs at $4.40. The start before that won by 0.8 len at Caulfield Bm78 April 4 over 1 ½m defeating Vino Novello carrying 127lbs at $4.60. Keeps raising the bar and will stay no worries. 2nd Pick 9 The Western Front Jockey: Luke Currie Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Luke Currie T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	118	-	-	-	17%
Analysis Chasing a hat-trick. Last start won by 2 len at this track Bm84 Hcp April 25 over 1/16m defeating Xtra Rush with 126lbs at $4.40. The start before that won by 0.8 len at Caulfield Bm78 April 4 over 1 ½m defeating Vino Novello carrying 127lbs at $4.60. Keeps raising the bar and will stay no worries.
1	Comes off a 35 day let-up. Most recently won by a neck at Randwick G1 Sydney Cup April 11 over 2m defeating Soul Of Spain with 122lbs at $51. Before that did the work up front then tired 9th of 11 at Randwick in the G2 Chairmans on April 4 over 1m, slow going 5.5 len behind Newlook carrying 128lbs at $15. A repeat of last start just about wins. 3rd Pick 1 Changingoftheguard Jockey: Declan Bates Trainer: Kris Lees J: Declan Bates T: Kris Lees	138	-	-	-	25%
Analysis Comes off a 35 day let-up. Most recently won by a neck at Randwick G1 Sydney Cup April 11 over 2m defeating Soul Of Spain with 122lbs at $51. Before that did the work up front then tired 9th of 11 at Randwick in the G2 Chairmans on April 4 over 1m, slow going 5.5 len behind Newlook carrying 128lbs at $15. A repeat of last start just about wins.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Workout

A workout is a timed sprint over varying distances prior to a race, meant to get a horse fit enough for competition.

Bolt

A sudden veering to the inside or outside rail, often caused by the horse spooking or shying from something.

Condition Book

A list of upcoming races issued by the racing secretary, where the conditions of races to be run over the next few weeks are written.