AU - Flemington - Race 2

Thoroughbred

19 Runners

9.9f

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

108.5K

VIEW

Verdict

Tricky little affair. Leaning to DIFFERENT GRAVY (1) who might just be able to improve again third up. He's clearly in need of a trip having run on well for fourth at Morphettville second up over 1 ?m, and an easy mid-prep trial win over 7f should have him screwed down for the 1 ¼m here. CLASSIC GEM (3) brings the clear best form into this, fourth in the G1 ATC Oaks last start. She's off five weeks and back in trip off what was her 'grand final' so to speak, but if she produces something like her best she's the one to beat. BUTHELEZI (5) was just behind BRAVE DANZA (4) at Caulfield Heath in April 29. Buthelezi was first up there having shown good ability in WA prior and can improve, Brave Danza beat him home narrowly and also has claims. There are plenty of impressive last start maiden winners engaged, of all of them CATCH THE MOON (11) is the one that appeals at odds.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
1	Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up 12th of 16 at Caulfield Vobis Guineas on March 14 over 1m, 7 len behind Salty Pearl with 128lbs at $7. Second run from a spell 4th of 11 at Morphettville in the LR Pt A Gneas on April 11 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind Mcwoody with 127lbs at $2.70. Peaks now and should be hard to hold out. 1st Pick 1 Different Gravy Jockey: Ben Allen Trainer: Henry Dwyer J: Ben Allen T: Henry Dwyer	148	-	-	-	15%
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up 12th of 16 at Caulfield Vobis Guineas on March 14 over 1m, 7 len behind Salty Pearl with 128lbs at $7. Second run from a spell 4th of 11 at Morphettville in the LR Pt A Gneas on April 11 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind Mcwoody with 127lbs at $2.70. Peaks now and should be hard to hold out.
3	Returns from a 35-day let-up. Most recently 4th of 12 at Randwick in the G1 Atc Oaks on April 11 over 1 ½m, 1.5 len behind Ohope Wins carrying 123lbs at $11. The race before that 5th of 16 at Randwick in the G3 Adrianknox on April 4 over 1 ¼m, slow going 6 len behind Profoundly carrying 122lbs at $4.60. Through the top races, if she holds her form she'll just about win. 2nd Pick 3 Classic Gem Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse Trainer: Dominic Sutton J: Daniel Stackhouse T: Dominic Sutton	188	-	-	-	36%
Analysis Returns from a 35-day let-up. Most recently 4th of 12 at Randwick in the G1 Atc Oaks on April 11 over 1 ½m, 1.5 len behind Ohope Wins carrying 123lbs at $11. The race before that 5th of 16 at Randwick in the G3 Adrianknox on April 4 over 1 ¼m, slow going 6 len behind Profoundly carrying 122lbs at $4.60. Through the top races, if she holds her form she'll just about win.
5	Second run back. First-up after five months 3rd of 9 at Caulfield Heath 3yo Bm70 on April 29 over 1m, 1.2 len behind Parvenu carrying 131lbs at $5.50. Previously second-up won by 2 len at Ascot Grad Hcp 60+ November 1 over 7 ½f defeating Saam Time Lucky carrying 119lbs at $4.60. Fitter and should be charging late. 3rd Pick 5 Buthelezi Jockey: Luke Nolen Trainer: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman J: Luke Nolen T: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman	131	-	-	-	13%
Analysis Second run back. First-up after five months 3rd of 9 at Caulfield Heath 3yo Bm70 on April 29 over 1m, 1.2 len behind Parvenu carrying 131lbs at $5.50. Previously second-up won by 2 len at Ascot Grad Hcp 60+ November 1 over 7 ½f defeating Saam Time Lucky carrying 119lbs at $4.60. Fitter and should be charging late.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Stakes Race

Stakes Races are known as better class races, with higher purses and often accompanies by trophies.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Workout

A workout is a timed sprint over varying distances prior to a race, meant to get a horse fit enough for competition.