AU - Flemington - Race 10

Thoroughbred

19 Runners

8.4f

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

108.5K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

Tricky finish. STORM LEOPARD (13) will need a good ride but put the writing on the wall first up with a nice return over 7f at Caulfield, getting home strongly for fifth. That was always going to be too sharp so the step to 1 ¹/16m is ideal with 119lbs, if Williams can be positive early and slot in somewhere from the wide gate he'll go close. JUSTADEEL (9) was well backed second up at Sandown Hillside over 7 ½f in a strange race on heavy ground. He did keep coming on the line despite being well beaten and third up to 1 ¹/16m from a lovely draw should suit nicely now. FUTURE HISTORY (1) resumes, big weight but only off 11 weeks and he's good enough. Could be the blowout up on speed. SUNTORA (8) worth including at odds.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
13	Second run back. First-up after five months 5th of 12 in a Bm100 at Caulfield on August 29 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind Fancify with 121lbs at $7. Previously second-up won by a long-neck in a 3yo Mdn-Sw at Geelong on December 12 over 7f defeating Gold Chariot carrying 128lbs at $4.80. Lovely return, suited this trip, just needs to overcome the gate. 1st Pick 13 Storm Leopard Jockey: Craig Williams Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Craig Williams T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	167	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Second run back. First-up after five months 5th of 12 in a Bm100 at Caulfield on August 29 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind Fancify with 121lbs at $7. Previously second-up won by a long-neck in a 3yo Mdn-Sw at Geelong on December 12 over 7f defeating Gold Chariot carrying 128lbs at $4.80. Lovely return, suited this trip, just needs to overcome the gate.
9	Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 4th of 11 in a Bm94 at Rosehill on August 1 over 6 ½f, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Carbonados carrying 130lbs at $6.50. Second-up 4th in a small field in a Hcp at Sandown-Hillside on August 22 over 7 ½f, on heavy track, 2.5 len behind Freedom Rally carrying 121lbs at $3.40. Up in trip now third up, sets up nicely from the gate. 2nd Pick 9 Justadeel Jockey: Jamie Melham Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Jamie Melham T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	158	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 4th of 11 in a Bm94 at Rosehill on August 1 over 6 ½f, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Carbonados carrying 130lbs at $6.50. Second-up 4th in a small field in a Hcp at Sandown-Hillside on August 22 over 7 ½f, on heavy track, 2.5 len behind Freedom Rally carrying 121lbs at $3.40. Up in trip now third up, sets up nicely from the gate.
2	Recent form sound. Most recently made some head-way from midfield, 2nd of 8 in a Bm100 at Caulfield on August 15 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Darkbonee carrying 130lbs at $8. The run before that 2nd of 10 in a Bm100 at Caulfield Heath on August 8 over 1m, on a slow track, long-neck behind First Chorus carrying 131lbs at $18. Racing well and will take holding out. 3rd Pick 2 Detonator Jack Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Non Runner T: Ciaron Maher	172	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Recent form sound. Most recently made some head-way from midfield, 2nd of 8 in a Bm100 at Caulfield on August 15 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Darkbonee carrying 130lbs at $8. The run before that 2nd of 10 in a Bm100 at Caulfield Heath on August 8 over 1m, on a slow track, long-neck behind First Chorus carrying 131lbs at $18. Racing well and will take holding out.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Mare

A female horse of five years or more.

Lasix

A medication for the treatment of bleeding in horses that is legal in North America, but not all worldwide jurisdictions.

Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.