AU - Mornington - Race 7

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

7.5f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

26.6K

VIEW

Verdict

SKETCH (9) looks very well placed in the final event. Going through her form- she started $2.20 (3rd) behind subsequent G1 VRC Oaks winner Strictly Business three back, then broke her maiden nicely at Caulfield Heath over 1m. She was tested in the Listed Twilight Glow Stakes last time at Caulfield and wasn't beaten far carrying 123lbs and now drops to just 116lbs after the claim in a BM70, albeit against the older horses and males. This looks ideal placement and she rates well. MACEDON ROSE (5) can be forgiven on the wet ground at Pakenham last time which was heavier than advertised. She was a $3 chance there off a good win prior and can bounce back. WELCOMETOTHESHOW (6) continues to race well, finding the line for third at Caulfield Heath last time. Big each-way chance again. BLAZING HARRY (1) is going well behind some handy ones and he's well suited this grade. RUSSIAN FRONT (8) is racing well and a minor hope again.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
9	At the latest run did the work up front then tired 5th of 8 at Caulfield in the LR Twilight Glow on November 29 over 7f, slow going 3 len behind Ruska Roma with 123lbs at $17. The race before that won by 0.8 len at Caulfield Heath Mdn-Sw November 12 over 1m on a rain affected track defeating Icaro carrying 123lbs at $1.65. Not far away last time. Drops in class and weight which sees her very well placed. 1st Pick 9 Sketch Jockey: Luke Cartwright Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman J: Luke Cartwright T: Anthony & Sam Freedman	132	-	-	-	20%
Analysis At the latest run did the work up front then tired 5th of 8 at Caulfield in the LR Twilight Glow on November 29 over 7f, slow going 3 len behind Ruska Roma with 123lbs at $17. The race before that won by 0.8 len at Caulfield Heath Mdn-Sw November 12 over 1m on a rain affected track defeating Icaro carrying 123lbs at $1.65. Not far away last time. Drops in class and weight which sees her very well placed.
5	At the latest run raced on the pace before fading to run last of 9 at Pakenham Bm70 on November 28 over 1m, slow going 14 len behind Eye For An Eye with 127lbs at $3. The race before that favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 3.5 len at Seymour Bm62 November 13 over 1m defeating Materazzi carrying 130lbs at $1.80. Forgive last time, form prior was good for this. 2nd Pick 5 Macedon Rose Jockey: Luke Currie Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Luke Currie T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	129	-	-	-	10%
Analysis At the latest run raced on the pace before fading to run last of 9 at Pakenham Bm70 on November 28 over 1m, slow going 14 len behind Eye For An Eye with 127lbs at $3. The race before that favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 3.5 len at Seymour Bm62 November 13 over 1m defeating Materazzi carrying 130lbs at $1.80. Forgive last time, form prior was good for this.
6	Form hard to fault. Last start 3rd of 10 at Caulfield Heath Bm66 on December 3 over 7 ½f, 1.1 len behind Storm Season with 131lbs at $13. Before that 2nd of 9 at Morphettville Parks Cg&E Bm66 on November 15 over 6 ¼f, long-neck behind Ginger Sinner carrying 131lbs at $6.50. Going well and should be right there once more. 3rd Pick 6 Welcometotheshow Jockey: Ryan Houston Trainer: Tyler Donaldson-Aitken J: Ryan Houston T: Tyler Donaldson-Aitken	135	-	-	-	34%
Analysis Form hard to fault. Last start 3rd of 10 at Caulfield Heath Bm66 on December 3 over 7 ½f, 1.1 len behind Storm Season with 131lbs at $13. Before that 2nd of 9 at Morphettville Parks Cg&E Bm66 on November 15 over 6 ¼f, long-neck behind Ginger Sinner carrying 131lbs at $6.50. Going well and should be right there once more.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Claiming Race

A race in which horses are entered for a certain price, or claiming tag, which is also their sales price. An owner can claim any horse entered for the tag before the race begins, and owns them as soon as the gates open.

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.